The PGA Tour is back to an elevated event this week after a few slow weeks at Quail Hallow for the Wells Fargo Championship in Charlotte, NC.

No video again this week, I’m exhausted from breaking down all the NHL series that started yesterday and today.

Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7554 yards, one of the hardest courses on tour every year, 9 of the 11 Par 4s are over 450 yds, the other two Par 4s are short and drivable (played almost as easy as the Par 5s), 3 of the 4 Par 3s are over 200 yds,  Par 5s are reachable in 2 by most of the field and you need to score on them, overseeded bermuda grass, narrow to average width tree lined fairways, not many bunkers and water on only a few holes, extremely low fairways hit (~50%), rough isn’t too penal and missing fairways isn’t going to kill you, lot of right to left doglegs (which favors natural draw), average GIR % (~64%), average proximity from the rough here is the lowest on tour, average sized fast multitiered greens with lots of undulation, putting is very difficult here with consistently lowest make % of putts inside 10 feet

Tournament Notes

• This tournament was cancelled in 2020 due to the COVID pandemic
• This event was held at TPC Potomac last year due to this course hosting the President’s Cup
• This event did not take place at this course in 2017, since it hosted the 2017 PGA Championship in an even tougher setup than it usually has
• The course underwent a major renovation in 2016, so it isn’t worth looking at the course history from before 2017
• This course has the smallest gap between SG: OTT and Approach for the T10/T5/Winners, while it has one of the lowest SG: ARG numbers, around the green play here does not matter
• The Green Mile (holes 16-18) is the hardest closing stretch on tour
• Driving accuracy isn’t much a factor here since everyone misses the fairway, but distance does
• Since 2012, 6 of the 9 winners here had a T10 in one of the two previous years here (Homa, Ernst and Hahn were the ones that did not)
• 10 of the T13 at the PGA Championship here in 2017 gained at least 2.2 strokes OTT

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Driving Distance

Main proximity distance range on approach: 175+ yards (over 55%) with 31.4% from over 200 yards

Corollary Courses

• Riviera Country Club (Genesis Open) – Ton of crossover success here since they’re similar setups – long, tough courses
• Torrey Pines Golf Course (Farmers Insurance Open)

Field

155 golfers – the weakest of the elevated, designated field events this year with 33 of the top 50 golfers in the PGA in the field, with Rahm, Scheffler, Zalatoris (out for the season), Matsuyama, Horschel, Hoge, Henley, Rose, Herbert, and Wise out this week

Defending Champion (Wells Fargo Championship 2023): Max Homa

2021 Champion (at this course): Rory McIlroy (-10)

2021 Runner Up: Abraham Ancer (-9)

One and Done: Viktor Hovland

One and Done Considerations: Rory, Finau, Hovland

Players

Rory McIlroy: 11100: +1000 – I just can’t stay off betting Rory and he’s the perfect fit on this course, the +1000 price boosted up on DraftKings Sportsbook I think is worth it but I’d stay off him at the normal +700 price, multi-time winner here (2021 and 2015), won the last time this course hosted this event in 2021, 1,8,16,4,1,8,10,2 finishes here back to 2012, finished 22nd at the PGA Championship here in 2017, first appearance since his MC at The Masters after three weeks off, MC,T2,T29,T32,1,4,1,T4,4,T2,1,T8 finishes in his last twelve stroke play events prior to The Masters, 5th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 1st in Driving Distance, 4th in Proximity – 175-200 yards, 30th in Proximity – 200+ yards, 77th in Par 3 scoring – 200-225 yards, 4th in Par 4 scoring – 450-500 yards, 2nd in Par 5 scoring, 73rd in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 20th in Bogie Avoidance 

Patrick Cantlay: 10500: +1400 – I can’t stand him and how slow he plays but he’s a great fit for this course, MC his only Wells Fargo here in 2021, finished 33rd here for the PGA Championship in 2017, 3,14,19,4,3,MC,26,16,2,7,1,57,2,8,4 finishes in his last 15 events, 17th in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 17th in Driving Distance, 72nd in Proximity – 175-200 yards, 3rd in Proximity – 200+ yards, 102nd in Par 3 scoring – 200-225 yards, 2nd in Par 4 scoring – 450-500 yards, 1st in Par 5 scoring, 40th in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 22nd in Bogie Avoidance

Tony Finau: 10200: +1700 – First in my model coming off his win last week in Mexico, MC,60,21,28,16 finishes here, finished 44th here at the PGA Championship in 2017, 1,31,26,19,24,20,14,9,16,7,1 finishes in his last eleven events, 1st in Approach, 17th in SG: OTT, 40th in Driving Distance, 1st in Proximity – 175-200 yards, 5th in Proximity – 200+ yards, 12th in Par 3 scoring – 200-225 yards, 11th in Par 4 scoring – 450-500 yards, 2nd in Par 5 scoring, 27th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 9th in Bogie Avoidance

Collin Morikawa: 9800: +2900 – First time playing this event surprisingly, 31,10,13,MC,6,MC,3,2,15,29 finishes in his last ten events, 2nd in Approach, 18th in SG: OTT, 102nd in Driving Distance, 5th in Proximity – 175-200 yards, 8th in Proximity – 200+ yards, 55th in Par 3 scoring – 200-225 yards, 46th in Par 4 scoring – 450-500 yards, 5th in Par 5 scoring, 133rd in Putting, 29th in Opportunities Gained, 23rd in Bogie Avoidance

Viktor Hovland: 9200: +1700 – This course mitigates the worst part of his game (ARG), T3 his only time here in 2021, 59,7,3,10,20,42,13,18,10,21,5 in his last eleven events, 19th in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 24th in Driving Distance, 74th in Proximity – 175-200 yards, 11th in Proximity – 200+ yards, 5th in Par 3 scoring – 200-225 yards, 6th in Par 4 scoring – 450-500 yards, 33rd in Par 5 scoring, 103rd in Putting, 18th in Opportunities Gained, 33rd in Bogie Avoidance

Gary Woodland: 7600: +7500 – Last week in Mexico he gained 10 strokes T2G but lost seven strokes putting, gained strokes putting in two of his last three times here, 5,MC,24,4,18,61,68 finishes here, finished 22nd here at the PGA Championship in 2017, 39,31,14,45,54,MC,9 finishes in his last seven events, 8th in Approach, 6th in SG: OTT, 7th in Driving Distance, 9th in Proximity – 175-200 yards, 1st in Proximity – 200+ yards, 8th in Par 3 scoring – 200-225 yards, 77th in Par 4 scoring – 450-500 yards, 35th in Par 5 scoring, 151st in Putting, 19th in Opportunities Gained, 42nd in Bogie Avoidance

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (20%)

Driving Distance (10%)

Proximity – 175-200 yards (10%)

Proximity – 200+ yards (10%)

Par 3 scoring – 200-225 yards (5%)

Par 4 scoring – 450-500 yards (5%)

Par 5 scoring (5%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

Bets

Outrights

1u Rory McIlroy (+1000)

.8u Patrick Cantlay (+1400)

.6u Tony Finau (+1700)

.6u Viktor Hovland (+1800)

.4u Collin Morikawa (+2900)

.2u Gary Woodland (+7500)

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