I didn’t stop the bleeding on the NHL last night, going 0-2 on my daily bets to lose 3.6 units, along with another 1.5 units on the Leafs series bet that’s now dead after three games (I hope they get swept, blow Leafs blow). Tonight we have just one game, with Vegas and the Oilers playing Game 3. Let’s crush it to get back in the win column!
Game 3: Oilers vs. Golden Knights (8:30)
This series is tied through two games in Vegas, heading to Edmonton tonight for Game 3. In Game 1 in the fortress on Wednesday night, Vegas got a huge 6-4 win to start off the series. The Knights outshot the Oilers 34-27 but for the game Edmonton slightly outplayed Vegas by an expected goal rate of 3.22-3.1. Vegas absolutely dominated 5 on 5 play, and although by the advanced statistics it was only by an expected goal rate of 2.11-1.64, they were the way better team. The Knights took all the momentum out of the Oilers offense, answering back from two of Edmonton’s goals within a minute. The Oilers got held without a shot for 12 minutes at one point, but they still scored four goals, despite their bottom 9 forwards only having just 12 combined shots all game with Leon Draisaitl scoring all four of Edmonton’s goals. In Game 2, the Oilers answered back in a huge way on Saturday night, winning 5-1 on the road in Vegas. They of course, were lead by none other than Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who each scored twice (along with an assist for McJesus). Edmonton outshot the Knights 36-31 and outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 4.38-3.07. I’d lean the Oilers win again at home tonight but no way do I think they’re worth the -186. I do actually really like the value on Vegas +1.5 though, which I’ll take for half a unit at just -155 (and there’s value to the moneyline too at +155). The over hit so easily in Game 1 with ten goals and it’s insane that the first period of Game 2 had four goals, but the over didn’t hit. I’m going right back to the over tonight. I don’t love the over 7 at +112, but I’ll go with the alternate over 6.5 at -141 for 2 units. I’ll also take the Oilers team total over 3.5 for a unit. I’m taking Leon Draisaitl to score as well for a unit.
Game Bets
.5u Golden Knights +1.5 (-155)
2u Oilers/Golden Knights over 6.5 (-141)
1u Oilers TT over 3.5 (-148)
1u Leon Draisaitl over .5 goals (-157)
Series Bets
2u Stars to win series in six games or less (+105)
3u Devils to win series (-124)
2u Stars to win series (-120)
2u Oilers/Golden Knights over 5.5 games (-186)
.5u Oilers/Golden Knights over 6.5 games (+200)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
2u Edmonton Oilers – Stanley Cup Champions (+800)
2u Dallas Stars – Stanley Cup Champions (+815)
Record: 784-641-35 (-60.2 units)
This season has been brutal from a gambling perspective.
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