I got hosed again on the NHL, once again coming a goal short of hitting the over after a high flying start to the Oilers/Knights game, going 1-3 to lose 5.38 units. Tonight we have two more Game 4s, with the Devils and Stars looking to tie their series.
I currently have futures on five of the seven teams left in the playoffs (the Leafs are done). Florida’s currently the cup favorites at +375 (that’s obviously lower than the other remaining teams since they’re about to be the first team to advance out of the second round). I don’t think that’s worth betting on. I think the path to them winning the Cup is through fantastic goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky. I looked at Conn Smythe futures and was shocked to see that he was +4000, where Matthew Tkachuk was the favorite +700. Although Matty Tkachuk might steal it away from Bob, I think that 40:1 is very much worth betting, and I’ll take it for half a unit. I also am rounding out the West with a unit on the Kraken boosted up to +1360 on FanDuel.
Game 4: Devils vs. Hurricanes (7:00)
After getting dominated through the first two games of this series on the road, the Devils made it a series with a dominant 8-4 win on Sunday afternoon as the series shifted to New Jersey with a four point game for Jack Hughes (2 goals, 2 assists). They outshot the Canes 34-30 and dominated by an expected goal rate of 4.16-2.66. The Hurricanes dominated Game 1 at home on Wednesday night, getting a 5-1 win in a game that New Jersey never stood a chance in. Carolina outshot the Devils 23-18 and outplayed Jersey by an expected goal rate of 3.97-2.11. Game 2 wasn’t any better for the Devils on Friday night, as they lost 6-1 to go down 2-0 in the series. They did play significantly better than in Game 1, but still got outshot 35-29 and outplayed by an expected goal rate of 4.02-2.16. I’d lean the Devils win tonight to tie this series up and would lean the over (which has hit in all three previous games of this series), but I’ll stay off this game entirely without enough of an edge on anything for me to take on it.
Game 4: Kraken vs. Stars (9:30)
So far, this second-round series has been a lot of fun in this Western Conference matchup between the Seattle Kraken and the Dallas Stars. We started the series with a wild Game 1, as the Kraken got up 4-2 early, with Jake Oettinger having his worst period of the playoffs, giving up four goals. After that period, Oettinger didn’t let another goal in, and with an incredible four-goal performance from Joe Pavelski, the Stars tied it up to force overtime. Yanni Gourde ruined the comeback though 12:17 into OT for the 5-4 Seattle win on the road to take a 1-0 series lead. The Kraken outshot Dallas 44-35 but the Stars outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 3.26-2.78. The Stars bounced right back though in Game 2, coming up with a big win for me as they took down Seattle 4-2. They were the far better team, outshooting the Kraken 37-27 and absolutely dominating them by an expected goal rate of 5.76-1.87. In Game 3 of the series, as it shifted to Seattle, after a scoreless first period, the Kraken took over, scoring five times to ride out the game to a dominant 7-2 win. They were outshot 26-25 but outplayed Dallas by an expected goal rate of 2.42-1.79, with seven different goal scorers for their seven goals. This is a pivotal game in the series with the Stars needing to tie up the series and not let the Kraken up 3-1. I still expect Dallas to win this series and they’re the better team on both ends of the ice. Although in the regular season, the Kraken scored more than Dallas did, the Stars did a much better job of generating offense, generating the twelfth-most expected goals and the eighth-most high-danger shots in the league while Seattle generated just the tenth-fewest expected goals and the ninth-fewest high-danger shots in the league. In the first round, the Kraken scored just the fifth-fewest goals of teams that made the playoffs while the Stars scored the sixth-most. Defensively in the regular season, the Stars were elite, having allowed just the third-fewest goals in the NHL, and they gave up just the second-fewest expected goals and the second-fewest high-danger shots. Defensively, Seattle’s been inconsistent and they’ve struggled at times in the regular season, having allowed the 14th-fewest goals in the NHL. They allowed the seventh-fewest goals of the first round. I have a prop for 2 units on the Stars to win this series in six games. I’m not so confident in that even though I think Dallas is the better team. I’m going to let it ride tonight. I considered doubling down on the Stars but decided that the best move is to just lay off this individual game. I’d slightly lean the under but not enough to bet it.
Game Bets
None tonight
Series Bets
2u Stars to win series in six games or less (+105)
3u Devils to win series (-124)
2u Stars to win series (-120)
2u Oilers/Golden Knights over 5.5 games (-186)
.5u Oilers/Golden Knights over 6.5 games (+200)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
2u Edmonton Oilers – Stanley Cup Champions (+800)
2u Dallas Stars – Stanley Cup Champions (+815)
1u Seattle Kraken – Stanley Cup Champions (+1360)
.5u Sergei Bobrovsky – Conn Smythe Trophy Winner (+4000)
Record: 785-644-35 (-65.58 units)
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A Town's Zone 