Slightly profitable night for me yesterday on the two NHL games, going 4-2 to win .24 units. I’ll take it. Tonight we have a huge Game 6 in Seattle, as the Stars look to advance to the Western Conference Finals.
Game 6: Kraken vs. Stars (7:00)
So far, this second-round series has been a lot of fun in this Western Conference matchup between the Seattle Kraken and the Dallas Stars. The Stars finished second in the Central Division and then knocked off the Minnesota Wild in the first round in six games. The Kraken finished in the first Wild Card spot in the West and knocked off the defending Stanley Cup Champions, upsetting the Avalanche in Game 7. We started the series with a wild Game 1, as the Kraken got up 4-2 early, with Jake Oettinger having his worst period of the playoffs, giving up four goals. After that period, Oettinger didn’t let another goal in, and with an incredible four-goal performance from Joe Pavelski, the Stars tied it up to force overtime. Yanni Gourde ruined the comeback though 12:17 into OT for the 5-4 Seattle win on the road to take a 1-0 series lead. The Kraken outshot Dallas 44-35 but the Stars outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 3.26-2.78. The Stars bounced right back though in Game 2, coming up with a big win for me as they took down Seattle 4-2. They were the far better team, outshooting the Kraken 37-27 and absolutely dominating them by an expected goal rate of 5.76-1.87. In Game 3 of the series, as it shifted to Seattle, after a scoreless first period, the Kraken took over, scoring five times to ride out the game to a dominant 7-2 win. They were outshot 26-25 but outplayed Dallas by an expected goal rate of 2.42-1.79, with seven different goal scorers for their seven goals. The Stars answered back on the road in Game 4 to tie up the series with a big 6-3 win in Seattle. With a four goal third period, they rode a 5-1 lead to the victory, outshooting the Kraken 25-19 and outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 4.98-2.56. Dallas put the Kraken a game away from elimination with another dominant win at home in Game 5 on Thursday night, winning 5-2. Despite getting outshot 31-21, the Stars outplayed Seattle by an expected goal rate of 3.03-1.21. Dallas has been the better team in this series and with their two back-to-back wins in Games 4 and 5, they’re a game away from the Western Conference Finals. Although in the regular season, the Kraken scored more than Dallas did, the Stars did a much better job of generating offense, generating the twelfth-most expected goals and the eighth-most high-danger shots in the league while Seattle generated just the tenth-fewest expected goals and the ninth-fewest high-danger shots in the league. In the first round, the Kraken scored just the fifth-fewest goals of teams that made the playoffs while the Stars scored the sixth-most. Defensively in the regular season, the Stars were elite, having allowed just the third-fewest goals in the NHL, and they gave up just the second-fewest expected goals and the second-fewest high-danger shots. Defensively, Seattle’s been inconsistent and they’ve struggled at times in the regular season, having allowed the 14th-fewest goals in the NHL. They allowed the seventh-fewest goals of the first round. I expect the Stars to finish this series off on the road and advance to the Western Conference Finals. I already have a 2 unit prop on them to win the series in six games or less, which at this point is the same thing as tonight’s moneyline, but with much better value at +105 rather than -167. I’ll let that ride tonight and hopefully cash in on that along with my bet for them to win the series that I doubled down on after their Game 1 loss. The over has hit in all five previous games in this series and I expect that trend to continue tonight in Game 6 as both teams have been able to score. Especially with this being an elimination game, I expect the net to be empty late in the game with the expectation that the Stars will be leading in the third period. That extra chaos may help us get a few empty net goals to hit the over, but it should come earlier with how high-scoring this entire series has been. I’m hammering the over here. I’ll take the 5.5 for 2.5 units, the 7 for a unit and the 7.5 for half a unit.
Game Bets
2.5u Stars/Kraken over 5.5 (-125)
1u Stars/Kraken over 7 (+230)
.5u Stars/Kraken over 7.5 (+310)
Series Bets
2u Stars to win series in six games or less (+105)
2u Stars to win series (-120)
.5u Oilers/Golden Knights over 6.5 games (+200)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
2u Edmonton Oilers – Stanley Cup Champions (+800)
2u Dallas Stars – Stanley Cup Champions (+815)
1u Seattle Kraken – Stanley Cup Champions (+1360)
.5u Sergei Bobrovsky – Conn Smythe Trophy Winner (+4000)
Record: 792-656-35 (-72.62 units)
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A Town's Zone 