Huge night for me yesterday, sweeping my daily NHL plays with the whole ladder of overs cashing in the Stars/Kraken game to win 6.34 units, but I did give 2 of those units back on my Stars in six games series bet. Tonight we have just one game, a critical game 6 in Edmonton as they try to avoid elimination against the Golden Knights at home. Horrendous scheduling by the NHL to have the only game on the slate on a Sunday with the best player in the world start at 10 pm.
Game 6: Oilers vs. Golden Knights (10:00)
This series has been great, with the Golden Knights leading the series 3-2 with the chance to advance to the Western Conference Finals with a win on the road tonight while Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and the Oilers looking to extend the series to Game 7 with a win at home tonight. In Game 1 in the fortress on Wednesday night, Vegas got a huge 6-4 win to start off the series. The Knights outshot the Oilers 34-27 but for the game Edmonton slightly outplayed Vegas by an expected goal rate of 3.22-3.1. Vegas absolutely dominated 5 on 5 play, and although by the advanced statistics it was only by an expected goal rate of 2.11-1.64, they were the way better team. The Knights took all the momentum out of the Oilers offense, answering back from two of Edmonton’s goals within a minute. The Oilers got held without a shot for 12 minutes at one point, but they still scored four goals, despite their bottom 9 forwards only having just 12 combined shots all game with Leon Draisaitl scoring all four of Edmonton’s goals. In Game 2, the Oilers answered back in a huge way on Saturday night, winning 5-1 on the road in Vegas. They of course, were lead by none other than Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who each scored twice (along with an assist for McJesus). Edmonton outshot the Knights 36-31 and outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 4.38-3.07. On Monday night in Game 3 as the series shifted to Edmonton, the Golden Knights took back home ice advantage, dominating with a 5-1 victory on the road. Led by Jack Eichel (1 goal, 2 assists) and Jonathan Marchessault (2 goals), they were the far better team, outshooting the Oilers 33-28 and outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 3.61-2.29. Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, the two best players in the world right now were completely held off the score sheet. The Oilers scored 2:45 into the game to open the scoring and were shut out the remainder of the game. After losing starting goalie Laurent Brossoit to injury 11:44 into the game, Adin Hill came in and had a 24 save performance without giving up even a goal. The Oilers answered right back in Game 4 at home on Wednesday, with a big 4-1 win in a chippy, physical game that saw some dirtbag plays that caused a lot of controversy in the hockey world. That was the first regulation loss on the road for Vegas since early March. They were outshot 33-26 and outplayed by an expected goal rate of 2.99-1.2. In Game 5 on Friday night, the Knights bounced back with a 4-3 win at home to take a 3-2 series lead in the best game of the series. Prior to Game 5, every game was pretty much a blowout. The Knights were outshot 35-31 but outplayed Edmonton by an expected goal rate of 4.2-3.65. It was a game of power play scoring, as five of the seven goals in the game were scored on the power play, and the Oilers were held off the score sheet entirely in five on five play. Vegas has been the way better team in this series in five on five play, and when they stay out of the box, they’ve dominated. The Oilers have been dangerous though and they’ve been very good at bouncing back in big ways from losses. I have a prop at +200 for this series to go to Game 7, which is awesome value, pretty much flipping the Oilers moneyline, which is at -200 for tonight. I expect the Oilers to win this one, but could see this being a close game once again. I’ll take the Knights +1.5 for half a unit and hopefully middle it with a one goal victory for the Oilers. I’ll also go right back to the over for 1.5 units, especially with this being an elimination game in a series that I like the overs in anyway.
Game Bets
.5u Golden Knights +1.5 (-148)
1.5u Oilers/Golden Knights over 6.5 (-130)
Series Bets
2u Stars to win series (-120)
.5u Oilers/Golden Knights over 6.5 games (+200)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
2u Edmonton Oilers – Stanley Cup Champions (+800)
2u Dallas Stars – Stanley Cup Champions (+815)
1u Seattle Kraken – Stanley Cup Champions (+1360)
.5u Sergei Bobrovsky – Conn Smythe Trophy Winner (+4000)
Record: 795-657-35 (-68.28 units)
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A Town's Zone 