Great night for me yesterday in Game 3 in the East, going 4-1 to win 5 units. Huge win! Let’s keep rolling with Game 3 of the Western Conference Series shifting to Dallas in a must-win for the Stars!
Game 3: Stars vs. Golden Knights (8:00)
Through the two games in Vegas, this has been a fun and competitive series, both needing overtime to determine a winner. In Game 1, the Golden Knights opened the series with a 4-3 overtime win after a high-scoring four goal third period. The Stars forced overtime on Jamie Benn’s goal with 1:59 remaining in regulation but Brett Howden was the overtime hero just 1:35 into OT to get the Knights the win at home in the Fortress to take a 1-0 series lead. Vegas outshot the Stars 37-36 and outplayed Dallas by an expected goal rate of 2.9-2.22. Game 2 was just as fun. It started quicker, with the teams trading goals in the first period. This time it was Vegas that tied up the game late as Jonathan Marchessault forced overtime with his goal with just 2:22 left in regulation and then Chandler Stephenson gave Vegas the 2-0 series lead at home heading on the road to Dallas tonight for Game 3. The Stars outshot Vegas 28-24 and outplayed the Knights by an expected goal rate of 3.24-2.88 but couldn’t get the win. I expect this to be a long and close series that goes six or seven games, as my series props map out to. I still really like those props with how tight these first two games have been, both going to OT. A series doesn’t start until you lose at home and tonight’s game is a must-win at home for the Stars. They cannot go down 3-0 in this series against a team as good as these Knights and expect to rattle off four in a row to win. I expect Dallas to come up strong and get the win tonight to get back in this series and I’ll take them for 1.5 units. I’d slightly lean the over in this game but not enough to bet it.
Game Bets
1.5u Stars ML (-148)
Series Bets
2u Carolina Hurricanes – Eastern Conference Champions (-130)
2u Golden Knights/Stars over 5.5 games (-186)
.5u Golden Knights/Stars over 6.5 games (+200)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
2u Dallas Stars – Stanley Cup Champions (+815)
.5u Sergei Bobrovsky – Conn Smythe Trophy Winner (+4000)
Record: 804-667-35 (-70.1 units)
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A Town's Zone 