Huge PGA Championship week for me, cashing in Brooks Koepka for my second outright win in a row (and One & Done win) and fourth of the year. This week the PGA Tour heads to Fort Worth for the Charles Schwab Challenge.

It’s way too late, no video this week.

Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7209 yards, 7 Par 4s range from 400-450 yards, 3 of the Par 3s range from 175-200 yards, one of the Par 5s is reachable by the entire field and the other is reachable by longer hitters but the Par 5s are both some of the hardest Par 5s on Tour while being the easiest holes on the course, 84 bunkers, 4 water hazards, Bermuda fairways and rough, tight tree lined fairways with bunkers in play on pretty much every tee shot, rough isn’t too high but wirey so it’s tough to hit out of, harder than average fairways to hit (~57% vs. tour average ~62%), most golfers will go less than driver on a lot of holes (average driving distance 278 yards vs. tour average 283), plotters course where accuracy and shot placement matters more than distance with precision more important, a lot of doglegs with 7 of the 11 favoring a left to right ball flight, slightly below average GIR % (~64% vs. tour average ~66%), small pure bentgrass greens with a bit of undulation, lot of bunkers around the green especially in front of them, weather plays a big factor here with the winning score fluctuating between -21 and -9 in the last 12 years

Tournament Notes

• Formerly called the Fort Worth Invitational and the Dean & DeLuca Invitational and several other names before those
• Experience/course history matter here, the winners of this event since 2001 have averaged 7 appearances here prior to their win
• Only 8 golfers in 70 years have gotten their maiden victory here
• Since Sergio won in 2001 at age 22, just Jordan Spieth in 2016, Daniel Berger in 2020, and Sam Burns last year were the only golfers under age 30 to win here 
• Besides Justin Rose in 2018 (on his first time here), Daniel Berger in 2020 (T53 the year previous), and Sam Burns last year (hadn’t played since a T31 finish in 2019) every winner since 2014 has finished T15 or better the year previous here
• SG: Approach is more than twice as impactful than OTT and ATG for Top 10/Top 5 finishes, and 3x more impactful on the winner
• Any skill set could win here and a lot of plotters have won here before but the superstars that normally don’t play here could just bomb and gauge the course and tear it up

Key Stats

Approach, Par 4 Scoring, SG: ARG

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (24.7%), 125-150 yards (20.6%)

Corollary Courses

• Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
• Copperhead Course (Valspar Championship)
• Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship)
• Wai’alae Country Club (Sony Open)
• Pebble Beach (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)

Field

121 golfers – invitational field with some pretty good talent at the top, with a drop off

Defending Champion: Sam Burns (-9 in playoff)

Runner Up Last Year: Scottie Scheffler (-9)

One and Done: Justin Rose

One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, Homa, Rose, Finau, Morikawa, Hovland

Players

Max Homa: 10100: +2500 – 23,MC,27,MC finishes here, 55,8,MC,43,6,14,2,39,1,3 finishes in his last ten events, 7th in Approach, 41st in SG: OTT, 45th in Good Drives, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 11th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 14th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 3rd in Proximity 125-150 yards, 18th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 28th in SG: ARG, 6th in Putting, 36th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, 4th in Bogey Avoidance

Justin Rose: 9300: +2600 – Former winner here in 2018 with MC,20,3,58,1,71 finishes here, 9,25,16,36,6,MC,MC,1,18,26,29,9 finishes in his last twelve events, 25th in Approach, 64th in SG: OTT, 23rd in Good Drives, 14th in Par 4 scoring, 38th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 23rd in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 26th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 20th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 42nd in SG: ARG, 13th in Putting, 25th in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Birdie+ Gained, 12th in Bogey Avoidance

Tommy Fleetwood: 9200: +3300 – He’s been playing great and I think his first win in the US is coming soon, finished 35th here last year in his first time here, 18,5,15,33,3,27,61,20,MC,4,53,4,4 finishes in his last 13 events, 10th in Approach, 28th in SG: OTT, 46th in Good Drives, 17th in Par 4 scoring, 7th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 23rd in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 19th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 21st in Proximity 150-175 yards, 6th in SG: ARG, 31st in Putting, 72nd in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Birdie+ Gained, 14th in Bogey Avoidance

Chris Kirk: 9100: +4500 – 15,69,60,11,67,15,1,14,36,5,16 finishes here, 29,56,41,23,10,MC,39,1,MC,3,3 finishes in his last eleven events, 30th in Approach, 43rd in SG: OTT, 69th in Good Drives, 5th in Par 4 scoring, 4th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 50th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 1st in Proximity 125-150 yards, 40th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 4th in SG: ARG, 37th in Putting, 12th in Opportunities Gained, 21st in Birdie+ Gained, 23rd in Bogey Avoidance

Stephen Jaeger: 8100: +6600 – Has gained strokes OTT in all but one of his last 15 events, MC in his first event here last year, 50,11,27,18,MC,27,44,14,40 finishes in his last nine events, 12th in Approach, 18th in SG: OTT, 7th in Good Drives, 8th in Par 4 scoring, 33rd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 10th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 5th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 81st in Proximity 150-175 yards, 11th in SG: ARG, 110th in Putting, 22nd in Opportunities Gained, 44th in Birdie+ Gained, 16th in Bogey Avoidance

Eric Cole: 7200: +9000 – He was at the top of the leaderboard for a while as an alternate into the PGA last week, I like the value on him as a long shot this week, first time playing this event, 15,23,MC,5,39,MC,27,MC,2,15 finishes in his last ten events, 16th in Approach, 65th in SG: OTT, 79th in Good Drives, 12th in Par 4 scoring, 37th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 79th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 45th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 45th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 15th in SG: ARG, 24th in Putting, 22nd in Opportunities Gained, 32nd in Birdie+ Gained, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance

Model

Approach (25%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Good Drives (5%)

Par 4 scoring (5%)

Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards (10%)

Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards (5%)

Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)

Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

Bogey Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• On DK Showdown slates, you’re better off stacking guys that start on the back nine for the wrap around of Holes 17,18,1,2 for 3+ birdie streak
• Scottie Scheffler is first in my model and maps out perfectly for this course, ranking 1st in a majority of the stats that I’m looking at, but he’s simply just not worth betting on at +400

Bets

Outrights

.4u Max Homa (+2500)

.4u Justin Rose (+2600)

.32u Tommy Fleetwood (+3300)

.24u Chris Kirk (+4500)

.16u Stephan Jaeger (+6600)

.12u Eric Cole (+9000)

T6 Each Ways

.16u Stephan Jaeger (+1320)

.12u Eric Cole (+1800)

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