This should be a great series in the second round in the Atlantic Division between the defending Stanley Cup Champion #3 seed Florida Panthers and the regular season division winning Toronto Maple Leafs. Both teams were tested in the first round, but proved they were the far better teams to advance.

The Panthers went 3-1 in the regular season series against the Leafs this year despite Toronto having the better regular season. Florida dominated the first game between them, winning 5-1 at home on November 27th. The Panthers won again with a 3-2 win on the road in their second game on March 13th. The Maple Leafs answered back with a 3-2 win at home on April 2nd. On April 8th, Florida answered back with a 3-1 win at home in a game that was closer than you’d think from a matchup that the Panthers outshot the Leafs 37-18.

The Toronto Maple Leafs had a fantastic season this year, winning the Atlantic Division, which is huge for them to avoid playing one of the Florida teams in the first round and then getting to play the winner of Panthers/Lightning after they beat each other up in the Battle of Florida. The Leafs finished the season 52-26-4, six points ahead of the Lightning. I think this could finally be the year that Toronto makes a run, and although they’re not my pick to win the Eastern Conference, I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if they end up in the Cup Finals.

The Maple Leafs were very good on both ends of the ice this season. They averaged 3.26 goals per game, the seventh-most in the NHL, on an average of 28 shots per game. They’ve generated the eleventh-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.16) and the seventh-most high-danger shots in the league. The Leafs’ power play clicked at a 24.8% rate this season, ranking ninth in the NHL. Mitch Marner (102 points, 75 assists) and William Nylander (45 goals) led Toronto this year in scoring with Auston Matthews right in the mix as well. 

Defensively Toronto was fantastic as well, for the first time that I can ever remember. They allowed an average of 2.79 goals per game, the eighth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 29.3 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the ninth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.22) and the twelfth-most high-danger shots. The Leafs penalty kill was 17th in the league at 77.9%. They’ve had their best goaltending in years, with Anthony Stolarz leading the way with a 2.14 GAA and a league-leading .926 save percentage, with Joseph Woll right behind him with a 2.73 GAA and .909 save percentage.

The Leafs looked pretty solid in the first round in the Battle of Ontario against their rival Ottawa Senators, knocking off the Sens in six games. Toronto dominated Game 1 with a 6-2 win, then went to overtime each of the next three games, winning Game 2 3-2 at home, Game 3 3-2 on the road, and then losing Game 4 on the road 4-3 when they had the chance to sweep, with Auston Matthews hitting a post on a late power play in regulation, before the Sens had the chance at the sweep. I thought they’d win Game 5 easily coming back home, but they were shutout in Game 5, losing 4-0. With Toronto panicking, the Leafs closed out the series in Game 6 with a solid 4-2 win on the road.

The Panthers had a lot of up and downs this year after winning the Cup last season and going to the Cup Finals the past two years. They finished the season four points back from the Lightning and a point ahead of Ottawa with a 47-31-4 record. Florida dealt with injuries to several key players, who will all be good to go and ready to join the lineup tomorrow when they start the series, including Matthew Tkachuk. They’ll also get Aaron Ekblad back this series, who missed time due to a suspension for PEDs. At the trade deadline, the Cup Champs made the most surprising move, bringing in Brad Marchand from the Bruins. Full rat line coming in the playoffs of him, Tkachuk, and Bennett the Menace.

Florida’s offense wasn’t all that special this year, averaging 3 goals per game, 15th-most in the NHL, on an average of 31.6 shots per game, the third-most in the league. They’ve generated the second-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.45) and the most high-danger shots in the league. The Panthers scored on 23.5% of their power play chances, ranking 13th in the NHL. Sam Reinhart (81 points, 39 goals) and Aleksander Barkov (51 assists) led Florida in scoring this year.

The Panthers were really solid on the back end with their hard-hitting defense. They allowed an average of 2.72 goals per game, the seventh-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 26.2 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the seventh-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.84) and the eleventh-fewest high-danger shots. Florida killed off 80.7% of their penalties, ranking tenth in the league. Sergei Bobrovsky was pretty good in goal this year, with 33 wins, five shutouts, a 2.44 GAA, and a .906 save percentage.

The Battle of Florida was largely disappointing. I thought the Lightning would give their rivals a series, but the Panthers dominated it, besides Game 3 on the road, winning the series in five games. Game 1 on the road was a blowout win for the Panthers, winning 6-2 in Tampa. They followed it up with a 2-0 Bobrovsky shutout to go back to Sunrise with a 2-0 series lead. In a must-win Game 3, the Lightning got their first and only win of the series, scoring three times in the third period for a 5-1 win in a game that was just 2-1 going into the third. The Panthers had a great third period of their own in Game 4 at home, erasing a 2-1 deficit with 3:47 left in regulation with two goals in eleven seconds followed by an empty netter to win it 4-2. The Cup Champs scored three unanswered to win the series in Game 5 with a 6-3 victory on the road.

I like the Panthers to win this series, and I think they likely get it done in six games, although it wouldn’t shock me if it’s over in 5. I’ll take Florida to win the series for 1.5 units. I considered betting the series to go over 5.5 games, but I’ll stay off it and just bet it game by game.

Expecting Florida to win the series, I’ll take them for half a unit in Game 1 tonight on the road.

I think the totals in this series are close to a toss up and I’d slightly lean the games trend under with really solid goaltending. Both Bobrovsky and Stolarz were really solid in the first round, each with a 2.21 GAA and a .901 save percentage. Both teams have trended under on the season, with the under going 45-40-2 in Panthers games this year, and 43-41-4 in Leafs games. The over 5.5 was 1-3 in the regular season games between these two teams. In the first round, the over 5.5 hit in four of the five games the Panthers played against the Lightning and in three of the six games the Leafs played against the Senators. I’ll stay off the total in Game 1 tonight. 

Series Bets

1.5u Panthers to win the series (-170)

Game 1 Bets

.5u Panthers ML (-125)

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