Coming off a nice win for me on Ben Griffin last week, this week the PGA Tour heads down to Bermuda for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course. Let’s win back to back!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 6828 yards, very short yardage course with most golfers hitting less than driver off the tee on most holes besides the Par 5s, the Par 5s are short with all three under 555 yards and they’re obviously the three easiest holes on the course with the ability for the entire field including the shortest hitters to get there in two, six of the Par 4s are under 400 yards with only one on the course playing over 450 yards (and only from the back tee boxes), all four Par 3s are over 200 yards, average sized fairways with bunkers in the landing areas, lots of elevation changes throughout the course especially off the tee, driving accuracy here is lower than tour average (~55% vs. 62%), Zoysia grass rough shouldn’t be too thick or penal, water in play on seven holes, 87 bunkers, average sized Bermuda grass greens without much slope or undulation and are pretty soft and slow, weather is always a factor here with a ton of wind that changes the way the course plays out each year
Tournament Notes
- This used to be an alternate field event the same week of the WGC-HSBC Championship, which no longer exists
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Birdie+ Gained
Field
122 golfers – Horrible field strength, the worst of the year, including in the swing season
Last Year’s Champion: Rafael Campos (-19)
Runner Up Last Year: Andrew Novak (-16)
Players
Rico Hoey: 10400: +1800 – Spectacular form coming into this week of two T4s in his last two events with 2,4,MC,9,67,57,11,MC,36,66 finishes in his last ten events, finished 17th here last year, 2nd in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 91st in Proximity (100–125 yards), 37th in Proximity (200+ yards), 70th in Par 3 Scoring (200–225 yards), 13th in Par 4 Scoring, 36th in Par 4 Scoring (350–400 yards), 40th in SG: ARG, 116th in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 21st in Birdie+ Gained, 85th in Bogey Avoidance, he probably shouldn’t be the favorite but I still like him enough to take him at second in my model
Matt Kuchar: 8600: +4000 – Maps out nicely on this course, one of the best putters in the field on Bermuda, plays well in the wind, first time playing this event, good form coming into this event with 18,13,44,5,MC,25,53,56,32,18 finishes in his last ten events, 13th in Approach, 100th in SG: OTT, 15th in Proximity (100–125 yards), 88th in Proximity (200+ yards), 89th in Par 3 Scoring (200–225 yards), 8th in Par 4 Scoring, 30th in Par 4 Scoring (350–400 yards), 13th in SG: ARG, 6th in Putting, 32nd in Opportunities Gained, 83rd in Birdie+ Gained, 10th in Bogey Avoidance
Sami Valimaki: 8200: +4500 – Not playing great right now but really pops in my model, solid in the wind, first time playing this event, pretty terrible form coming in with 72,MC,MC,34,MC,60,MC,19 finishes in his last eight events, 27th in Approach, 104th in SG: OTT, 75th in Proximity (100–125 yards), 25th in Proximity (200+ yards), 3rd in Par 3 Scoring (200–225 yards), 23rd in Par 4 Scoring, 77th in Par 4 Scoring (350–400 yards), 60th in SG: ARG, 24th in Putting, 27th in Opportunities Gained, 8th in Birdie+ Gained, 14th in Bogey Avoidance
Victor Perez: 8100: +3300 – Playing very well with his irons and wedges lately, first time playing this event, 47,11,MC,38,28,43,MC,51,19,9 finishes in his last ten events, 3rd in Approach, 67th in SG: OTT, 40th in Proximity (100–125 yards), 92nd in Proximity (200+ yards), 8th in Par 3 Scoring (200–225 yards), 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 65th in Par 4 Scoring (350–400 yards), 90th in SG: ARG, 17th in Putting, 76th in Opportunities Gained, 50th in Birdie+ Gained, 29th in Bogey Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Proximity: 100-125 yards (5%)
Proximity: 200+ yards (5%)
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Betting Notes
- Last year I had Andrew Novak here, who finished second and Justin Lower, who finished T5
- I’m going with a slightly smaller card again this week (I hit the winner with only four picks last week too) since the field is so poor
Bets
Outrights
.6u Rico Hoey (+1800)
.5u Victor Perez (+3300)
.3u Matt Kuchar (+4000)
.3u Sami Valimaki (+4500)
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