This week the PGA Tour heads to one of my favorite tournaments for another signature event coming off The Masters, the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town in Hilton Head. Let’s hit the winner in back to back years!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7213 yards (short for a PGA course), Pete Dye designed course, four Par 3s are all between 192-200 yards (and all have a higher bogie rate than birdie rate), three Par 5s (two are reachable by most), thick tight tree lined course that really rewards driving accuracy and positioning off the tee (has to target specific parts of the fairway to set up approach shots), plotters course that handcuffs bombers a bit, overhanging trees so accuracy is important everywhere on the course, Bermuda fairways, easier than average fairways to hit (~66% vs. ~62% tour average), less than driver course with shortest drives on tour with a lot of forced layups (269 yards vs. tour average 284 yards) and the fewest drives over 300 yards on tour (~ 25%), driving distance does not matter here, bunkers and water hazards are in play if you miss wildly off the tee, water hazards are in play on every hole, 54 bunkers, rough has been grown up a bit more the last few years, very tough greens to hit (~59% vs. ~66% tour average) which have some of the lowest GIR% on tour, second smallest greens on tour by a significant margin, well-guarded poa-trivialis overseeded Bermuda greens, slower than average green speeds with not many slopes or undulations but with some bowl shaped greens with runoffs, bunkers (the easiest greenside bunkers on tour with a 67% sand save rate) and overhanging trees guarding most greens and water around a few greens as well, swirling wind could play a big factor, the course underwent some renovations in the offseason and while the course pretty much looks the same on both the overhead and the scorecard it should play much more firm
Tournament Notes
- Course history seems to be more important than current form here since it’s a target golf style course, so knowing where to land the ball is very important
- SG: Approach here is twice as important as ARG and OTT on T10 finishes and about 3x as important on T5 finishes
- SG: ARG has been more important here than SG: OTT
- Before 2019, the last 6 winners prior had been trailing by at least 3 strokes after 54 holes (CT Pan trailed 2 strokes in 2019 going into the final round, Webb Simpson was in a 4 way tie for first in 2020, in 2021 Stewart Cink set a 54 hole tournament record and was in solo 1st). In 2022, Spieth continued the trend, 3 strokes back of the 54 hole lead. In 2023, Fitzpatrick was the 54 hole leader and in 2024 Scheffler was as well. Last year Justin Thomas was a stroke back of Si Woo Kim (who was the 54 hole leader).
- Only seven 54 hole leaders have won in the last 15 years (Webb in 2020 was in a 4 way tie for T1 after 54 holes, with Ancer, Hatton, Palmer, Cink, Fitzpatrick, and Scheffler), but three of those were in the last four years
- In 2019, 11 of the T15 in approach came T16 or better. In 2020, 7 of the T11 in approach came T8 or better. In 2021, 8 of the T10 in approach came T13 or better. Of the nine golfers that finished T3 or better in 2022, all besides Kuchar gained on approach, including the top 3 approach leaders for the week. In 2023, five of the T6 in approach finished T15 or better. In 2024, 10 of the 13 approach leaders finished T18 or better. Last year, 8 of the 12 approach leaders finished T18 or better.
- No cut event
- Eight of the last 15 years and three of the last four years, this tournament has gone to a playoff
Key Stats
Approach, SG: ARG, Proximity 175-200 yards, Proximity 150-175 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yards (24.9%), 150-175 yards (22.5%)
Corollary Courses
Pete Dye courses: TPC Sawgrass (The Players), TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic), Austin Country Club (Dell Match Play), PGA West Stadium Course (CareerBuilder Challenge)
Field
82 golfers – Signature elevated event with most of the best players on the PGA Tour in the field (besides Rory), a stronger field than this event has had most years
Defending Champion: Justin Thomas (-17 in a playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Andrew Novak (-17)
One and Done: Viktor Hovland
One and Done Considerations: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland
Players
Xander Schauffele: 10500: +1475 – His T2G play was fine last week but he just couldn’t putt at Augusta and still finished T9, has gained an average of 6.5 strokes on approach in his last two events prior to The Masters (no strokes gained data for Augusta) and led the field in approach at THE PLAYERS, has gained over 6 strokes T2G in three of his last four events prior to The Masters (no strokes gained data for Augusta), his issue this year is that he can’t put four good rounds together with three great rounds (including shooting 65s in three of his last four events) and one terrible one, playing great lately and looks to be back in form after his rib injury last year with 9,4,3,24,7,19,41,MC,1,28,22,7,8 finishes in his last 13 events, 18,18,4,64,63,32 finishes here, 13th in Approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 26th in Good Drives, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 32nd in Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards, 22nd in Par 5 Scoring, 26th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 7th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 42nd in SG: ARG, 21st in Putting, 36th in Opportunities Gained, 35th in Birdie+ Gained
Viktor Hovland: 8600: +3400 – Pops in my model with fantastic approach play, 13,59,21 finishes here, gained 4 strokes on approach on Sunday at The Masters last week, 18,MC,13,13,41,58,10,14,23,6,5,12,7,32,63,11,3,25,28,54,13,21,1 finishes in his last 23 events on the DP World Tour and PGA, 7th in Approach, 66th in SG: OTT, 33rd in Good Drives, 29th in Par 4 Scoring, 41st in Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards, 52nd in Par 5 Scoring, 1st in Proximity 175-200 yards, 8th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 24th in SG: ARG, 46th in Putting, 40th in Opportunities Gained, 62nd in Birdie+ Gained
Sepp Straka: 7900: +4400 – Maps out nicely for this course with elite iron play especially recently, won several times last year in tough fields like this one, some great course history with 13,5,MC,3,59,33 finishes here, 41,MC,8,13,50,2,18,MC,3,17,52,7,45,MC,3,MC,1,13,MC,28,14,5,11 finishes in his last 23 events, 22nd in Approach, 29th in SG: OTT, 48th in Good Drives, 50th in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards, 18th in Par 5 Scoring, 23rd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 12th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 35th in SG: ARG, 33rd in Putting, 62nd in Opportunities Gained, 54th in Birdie+ Gained, with the boost I got I actually got his price on the without Scottie market to be better than his regular outright odds
Akshay Bhatia: 7700: +5900 – Won a month ago at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, API where he won was the only time in his last five starts that he lost strokes OTT before The Masters (no strokes gained data for Augusta), has gained T2G in each of his last six events before The Masters (no strokes gained data for Augusta), seems to have addressed his short game problems this year, not too concerned with his missed cuts at Augusta and at the Hero Indian Open two weeks prior with MC,MC,13,1,16,6,3,MC,MC14,MC,11,26,6,WD,25,30,26,54,MC,16,22 finishes in his last 22 events, 42,18,MC finishes here, 10th in Approach, 51st in SG: OTT, 62nd in Good Drives, 15th in Par 4 Scoring, 27th in Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards, 35th in Par 5 Scoring, 15th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 5th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 53rd in SG: ARG, 12th in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 16th in Birdie+ Gained
Nicolai Hojgaard: 7500: +8600 – He’s been fantastic T2G all year and I keep betting him every week, first time playing this event, not too worried about his MC at Augusta with MC,2,55,27,24,6,3,22,4,52,11,3,14,MC,55,14,4,24 finishes in his last 18 events on both the PGA and DP World Tour, 12th in Approach, 30th in SG: OTT, 63rd in Good Drives, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring, 62nd in Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards, 23rd in Par 5 Scoring, 4th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 32nd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 36th in SG: ARG, 17th in Putting, 26th in Opportunities Gained, 18th in Birdie+ Gained
Austin Smotherman: 6300: +20000 – His approach play lines up fantastic for this course and he really pops in my model for a huge long shot, has some nice showings this year with 36,MC,13,WD,2,MC,MC,8,MC,42,55,MC,42,7 finishes in his last 14 events since the fall, finished 67th his only time here in 2023, 6th in Approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 23rd in Good Drives, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards, 19th in Par 5 Scoring, 12th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 40th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 71st in SG: ARG, 73rd in Putting, 15th in Opportunities Gained, 33rd in Birdie+ Gained, also taking him on the T6 each way (which means I also have to bet the standard outright which I’ll do along with the without Scheffler one) for almost double the odds of his T5 with ties paid in full, definitely putting more on him than I should at these odds but let’s see if I can beat my biggest golf win ever on him (at the same tournament I did it at before when Wesley Bryan won it nine years ago)
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Good Drives (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- My biggest gambling win ever (on any sport) came here in 2017 when Wes Bryan won and I came in 7th in the big $33 GPP on DraftKings on Easter Sunday
- Generally lower 6/6 percentage on DK here
- Last year I hit the winner here on Justin Thomas at +2400
- I had Spieth here in 2023, who lost in a playoff to Fitzpatrick
- A lot of winners here move up the leaderboard on Sunday, so look at live betting opportunities
- I was going to bet Scheffler last week after what he did in his second place at The Masters, coming back to finish second after a terrible start with his game looking dialed again on the weekend, but at +400, I can’t do it, so I’m betting all my guys in the non-Scheffler market since I think he wins
Bets
Outrights (without Scheffler)
1u Xander Schauffele (+1225)
.5u Viktor Hovland (+2800)
.2u Akshay Bhatia (+5000)
.2u Sepp Straka (+5400)
.2u Nicolai Hojgaard (+7500)
.2u Austin Smotherman (+17600)
Outrights
.1u Austin Smotherman (+20000)
T6s Each Way
.1u Austin Smotherman (+4000)
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