NHL Playoffs 2026 – Round 1 Series Preview: Sabres vs. Bruins

I couldn’t be more excited as my Buffalo Sabres head into the playoffs as Atlantic Division Champions with a solid series against the Boston Bruins in the first round. Should be a competitive series and I can’t wait to be there tonight for Game 1. Both of these teams went into the year expected to be bottom five teams, fighting for lottery picks and not projected to make the playoffs by any means, but made magic and will face each other in the first round.

During the regular season, the Bruins went 3-1 against the Sabres. The first two games were early in the year though back when we sucked. In the first game in Boston on October 11th, we lost 3-1 on the road in a pathetic effort, getting shut out for the first 50 minutes of the game. The second game on the road on October 30th, we looked good early and played well, but couldn’t get the job done in Boston, losing 4-3 in overtime. We came out of the Christmas break with a great game at home, beating the Bruins 4-1 in the midst of our win streak to make it eight games in a row. In the last game on March 25th, Buffalo wasn’t great defensively, but took it to overtime, getting the loser point in a 4-3 loss at home.

The Sabres started off the year, just like it’s been for 15 years, looking horrendous early in the season. This year started terrible again for the Sabres as expected, as I referenced in my first blog of this season as we got shut out 4-0 at home by the Rangers to open the year. I thought we’d be tanking for Gavin McKenna. It wasn’t a good first couple of months, being in 29th place overall with a 7-9-4 record on November 21st, ranking 24th in goals (2.85) and 27th in goals against (3.55). Terrible play on both ends of the ice. In December we fired the GM Kevyn Adams, a long overdue move and ended up going on a ten game win streak, tying a franchise record and bringing the magic back. That was the turnaround and since November 21st had the best record in the league, going 43-14-4 after that, jumping up to finish the season fourth overall with a 50-23-9 record. The magic was back, as we led the league in goals (3.66) and were third in goals against (2.72) with great play in goal from the tandem of Alex Lyon and UPL. We made the playoffs, ending the drought with our first post-season appearance in 15 years, and beat out the Lightning and Canadiens to win the Atlantic Division, which was the hardest it has been since the four division format was introduced in the NHL in 2013.

Buffalo ended up being very good on both ends of the ice. Offensively, we were fifth in scoring, trailing just the Avs, Canes, Penguins and Lightning, scoring an average of 3.45 goals per game on an average of 28.1 shots per game. They’ve generated the 15th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (31.2) in the NHL and the ninth-fewest high danger shots in the league. The Sabres weren’t great on the power play, the twelfth-worst in the league, scoring at a 19.5% clip. Tage Thompson, who’s been here for most of the drought, acquired in the Ryan O’Reilly trade years ago, led the team with 81 points, 40 goals, and 41 assists. Former first overall pick defenseman for us, Rasmus Dahlin, who went through a ton personally this year, led the team with 55 assists. Alex Tuch had 66 points with 33 goals and 33 assists, and several other guys had career years.

Defensively the Sabres were good as well, allowing an average of just 2.93 goals per game, the tenth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 29.1 shots allowed per game. They’ve have given up a bunch of chances though, the twelfth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.19) and the eleventh-most high danger shots. The Buffalo penalty kill was very good, killing penalties at an 81.9% rate, ranking fourth in the NHL. Both goalies were good, with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen going 22-9-3 with a ninth-best 2.52 GAA, and sixth-best .910 save percentage, and a shutout. Alex Lyon, who’s injured, went 20-10-4 with a 2.77 GAA, a .907 save percentage, and three shutouts.

Going into the year, I thought the Bruins would be just as bad as us after they missed the playoffs last year, trading Brad Marchand and dismantling their team the last couple years. David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy, and Jeremy Swayman led them back to the playoffs though, surprising a lot of people. I just don’t think they’re that good behind those three studs, without much depth. They went 45-27-10, finishing in the first Wild Card in the East, better than the Penguins and Flyers, who finished second and third in the Metro Division.

The Bruins offense was surprisingly good this season, scoring an average of 3.27 goals per game, the tenth-most in the NHL, on an average of 27 shots per game. They didn’t generate many chances though, the eleventh-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.97) in the league and the tenth-fewest high danger shots. On the power play the Bruins were pretty good at 23.5%, ranking ninth in the league. Pasta led the way all season for them with 100 points, 29 goals, and 71 assists, one of the most under-rated superstars in this league. Morgan Geekie led them in goals with 39.

Boston was pretty much average on back end this season. They allowed the an average of 3.01 goals per game, ranking 14th in the league on an average of 29.7 shots per game. They gave up the third-most expected goals (3.33) in the NHL per game and they gave up the fourth-most high danger shots. What saved them was the goaltending from Jeremy Swayman, one of the best goalies in the league. He went 31-18-4, with a 2.71 GAAA, a .908 save percentage, and two shutouts.

After 15 years of missing the playoffs, I think the energy of this city and home ice leads them to a win here in the first round, likely in six or seven games. The main reason I think that outside of the vibes, is the lack of depth for the Bruins. I think behind Pasta, McAvoy, and Swayman, there isn’t much behind those guys, but they’re all key guys. I expect them alone to steal a couple games. I might be a bit biased here, but I’ll take the Sabres to win the series for 1.5 units. Stanley Cup Playoffs, here come your Buffalo Sabres!!

The over/unders on this series are tough. The over went 2-2 in the regular season games between these teams, with both that went over needing overtime to decide. I think mistakes for both teams defensively lead to goals, and these teams have both shown they can score this year. The Bruins trended over this year, with the over going 43-38-1 in their games, while the Sabres trended under, with the under going 41-38-3.

Really the only player props I’ll be looking at in this series are David Pastrnak, Tage Thompson, and Rasmus Dahlin point props. And even then, I won’t be going heavy on them.

I love my Sabres to win Game 1 at home tonight. That building is going to be so fucking electric tonight and I expect them to win the series. I’ll take them for 2 units with me going there. I’d slightly lean the over, but not enough to bet it. I’ll also parlay David Pastrnak and in their first ever playoff game, Tage Thompson, and Rasmus Dahlin to each get a point for half a unit. I considered individually taking Pasta to get two points, but I can’t do that with my team.