Slight 0.76 unit loss for me last night in the NHL, going 4-6. Today we could have two series come to an end already in the Metro with three huge Game 4s. Let’s win!
Game 4: Senators vs. Hurricanes (3:00)
The Hurricanes could be the first team to advance to the second round with a win on the road this afternoon. This series has been such a tight grind, with three low scoring close games, but the Canes have figured out a way to get the wins in all three games to be up 3-0 and have the shot to sweep the Sens today. That’s not to say that Ottawa’s playing bad but the slow, defensively sound hockey that Carolina plays it just too hard to break through. I already will win two units when the Hurricanes win this series, and although I could see the Senators extend this one more game, I’ll double down on Carolina for half a unit. If this goes to Game 5, I’ll hammer the Canes at home. I’ll go right back to the under in this game as well for a unit. That could get a bit dicey if Carolina’s leading late in the game since Ottawa will have to pull Ullmark and keep have to gamble a bit more, but I’ll still take it.
Game 4: Wild vs. Stars (5:30)
This series has been so good through the first three games with the Stars leading the series 2-1. I love this series to go seven games, expecting both teams to trade games all series. In Game 1, the Wild dominated their way to a 6-1 win on the road to start the series. The Stars answered back in a must win at home with a 4-2 win to tie up the series. As the series shifted to Minnesota for Game 3, that game was such a grind, with Wyatt Johnston being the overtime here on the power play in double overtime to get home ice back for Dallas in a 4-3 win. I like the Wild to tie the series up again at home tonight in Game 4 and I’ll take them for a unit, which will also guarantee one of my series length bets will cash. I like the over again as well at 5.5, which I’ll take for 1.5 units. It’s been one player away from hitting each game of this series and if the books keep giving me this price I only have to hit it once all series, so for half a unit I’ll parlay Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Quinn Hughes, Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson, and Wyatt Johnston to each get a point. Wyatt Johnston is way too cheap again, so I’ll also take him to get a point individually for half a unit. I’m also right back on Quinn Hughes to get an assist for half a unit.
Game 4: Flyers vs. Penguins (8:00)
They’re all Flyer’d up in Philly for this one. This series has been easily the biggest shocker of the first round for me, with the Flyers having a chance to sweep their rival Penguins at home tonight, which will lose my second biggest series play. Going into the series, although the Flyers and Dan Vladar were hot to be the last team in the East to get in, I thought the experience for the Pens was going to give them the big edge to win this series. Boy was I wrong. Philly’s played fantastic hockey, getting out to a 3-0 series lead and really dominating Pittsburgh, with 3-2, 3-0, and 5-2 wins. The Penguins are done, not even really generating any kind of offense in this series. I’ll lose 4.8 units when the Flyers win this series, and although I think the Pens probably find a way to get a win to extend this back to Pittsburgh for Game 5, I don’t love it in the slightest. I’ll hedge that series bet to cut down my loss here and I’ll take the Flyers for 2.5 units. If Pittsburgh wins, I’ll be all over Philly again in Game 5. I’d lean the under slightly, but not enough to bet it in an elimination game. I’ll also take Evgeni Malkin, who has a point in two of the three losses for Pittsburgh in this series for half a unit, and young stud Porter Martone, who has at least a point and two game winning goals in this series after just coming up to the NHL when Michigan State’s season ended to get a point for half a unit as well
Series Bets
2u Carolina Hurricanes – Series Winner (-165)
2u Dallas Stars – Series Winner (-120)
1.5u Dallas Stars/Minnesota Wild – Exactly 6 Games (+200)
1.5u Dallas Stars/Minnesota Wild – Exactly 7 Games (+210)
3u Pittsburgh Penguins – Series Winner (-160)
4u Colorado Avalanche – To Win Series in 6 Games or Less (-185)
.5u Colorado Avalanche – To Win Series in Exactly 4 Games (+450)
1.5u Buffalo Sabres – Series Winner (-175)
1.5u Vegas Golden Knights – Series Winner (-190)
Bets
.5u Hurricanes ML (-142)
1u Hurricanes/Senators under 5.5 (+110)
1u Wild ML (-135)
1.5u Wild/Stars over 5.5 (-110)
.5u parlay: Kaprizov/Boldy/Hughes/Rantanen/Robertson/Johnston point each (+510)
.5u Wyatt Johnston over 0.5 point (-166)
.5u Quinn Hughes over 0.5 assist (-160)
2.5u Flyers ML (-120)
.5u Evgeni Malkin over 0.5 point (-154)
.5u Porter Martone over 0.5 point (-140)
Regular Season Record: 935-1041-2 (-106.22 units)
Playoffs Round 1 Record: 31-41 (-8.85 units)
Bonus Bet: 1u Buffalo Bandits ML (-160) in the NLL playoffs!
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A Town's Zone 