This week the PGA Tour returns to TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley for the RBC Canadian Open, leading into next week’s U.S. Open. Let’s hit the winner!
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7389 yards, plays long with six of the Par 4s longer than 480 yards, both Par 5s should be reachable in two by most of the field, two short Par 3s under 160 yards and two long Par 3s over 225 yards, wide fairways, 48 bunkers, just three water hazards, pretty flat large poa-bentgrass greens, wind can play a big factor here
Tournament Notes
- This tournament changes courses on a regular basis
- Last year was the first time this course hosted a PGA Tour event
- This course hosted a Canadian Tour event in 2019 with Paul Jarjon winning at -25 over Taylor Pendrith and Jake Knapp and then a 2024 event won at -5 when it was very windy after course renovations in 2023
- This will be the first event as PGA Tour members for several NCAA and Korn Ferry grads
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring (450-500 yards)
Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yards, 200+ yards
Field
145 golfers – Pretty solid field for a non-elevated event
Defending Champion: Ryan Fox (-18 in a playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Sam Burns (-18)
One and Done: Wyndham Clark
One and Done Considerations: Wyndham Clark
Players
Matt Fitzpatrick: 10500: +1800 – Best player on the PGA this season with three wins including the Zurich where he got his brother his tour card to go with his Valspar and RBC Heritage wins along with a second place finish at THE PLAYERS, 36,14,52,1,18,1,2,41,24,14,9,63,1,32,21,5,5,6,17,32,8 finishes in his last 21 events, first time playing this course, 7th in Approach, 27th in SG: OTT, 95th in Driving Distance, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 71st in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 37th in Proximity 150–200 Yards, 4th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 1st in SG: ARG, 93rd in Putting, 44th in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 56th in Birdie+ Gained, 8th in Bogey Avoidance
Wyndham Clark: 9700: +2300 – Playing very well in his last two starts with a 3rd place finish at The Memorial after his win at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, has gained over 20 strokes on the field T2G in his last two starts, putts very well on bentgrass, 3,1,MC,16,21,MC,MC,42,41,58,35,65,13 finishes in his last twelve events, finished T59 here last year, 3rd in Approach, 62nd in SG: OTT, 39th in Driving Distance, 60th in Par 4 Scoring, 79th in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 79th in Proximity 150–200 Yards, 20th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 12th in SG: ARG, 71st in Putting, 12th in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, 89th in Bogey Avoidance
Brooks Koepka: 9500: +3300 – Needs a win to get into the signature events and this weaker field feels like a good spot for him, his ballstriking has been fantastic since his return but he’s been struggling putting big time this year although it was better at the CJ Cup a few weeks ago, 14,55,11,12,MC,18,13,9,MC,56 finishes since his return to the PGA Tour, first time playing this course, 2nd in Approach, 16th in SG: OTT, 16th in Driving Distance, 24th in Par 4 Scoring, 60th in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 12th in Proximity 150–200 Yards, 7th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 32nd in SG: ARG, 105th in Putting, 83rd in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 13th in Birdie+ Gained, 27th in Bogey Avoidance
Nicolai Hojgaard: 9100: +3575 – He’s been fantastic T2G all year and I keep betting him, crushes it off the tee, excels at driver heavy courses, plays well in the wind, MC,44,2,23,55,MC,2,55,27,24,6,3,22,4,52,11,3,14,MC,55,14,4,24 finishes in his last 23 events on both the PGA and DP World Tour,, missed the cut here last year, 21st in Approach, 25th in SG: OTT, 4th in Driving Distance, 45th in Par 4 Scoring, 53rd in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 100th in Proximity 150–200 Yards, 46th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 52nd in SG: ARG, 62nd in Putting, 117th in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 79th in Birdie+ Gained, 66th in Bogey Avoidance
Alex Fitzpatrick: 8700: +4000 – Has been playing great golf since getting his tour card with the Zurich win with his brother, leads the field in ballstriking over the last two months, 6,75,4,9 finishes on the PGA Tour since getting his tour card, first time playing this course, 6th in Approach, 34th in SG: OTT, 19th in Driving Distance, 51st in Par 4 Scoring, 85th in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 32nd in Proximity 150–200 Yards, 11th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 66th in SG: ARG, 76th in Putting, 99th in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 6th in Birdie+ Gained, 53rd in Bogey Avoidance
Eric Cole: 8000: +4500 – In excellent form right now and feels like the closest he’s been to a win since his rooking year, has gained strokes T2G in his last six starts, 8,2,31,6,14,51,MC,32 finishes in his last eight events, missed the cut here last year, 20th in Approach, 123rd in SG: OTT, 109th in Driving Distance, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 27th in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 48th in Proximity 150–200 Yards, 41st in Proximity 200+ Yards, 2nd in SG: ARG, 3rd in Putting, 33rd in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 4th in Birdie+ Gained, 20th in Bogey Avoidance
Zach Bauchou: 7300: +14000 – Pops in my model as a big longshot playing solid golf as of late, has gained on approach, T2G and ARG in each of his last three starts, 22,6,24,29,MC,MC,50,21,23,48,59,13 finishes in his last twelve events, first time playing this course, 13th in Approach, 76th in SG: OTT, 68th in Driving Distance, 20th in Par 4 Scoring, 57th in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 75th in Proximity 150–200 Yards, 97th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 18th in SG: ARG, 55th in Putting, 46th in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 29th in Birdie+ Gained, 13th in Bogey Avoidance, also taking his T5 (ties paid in full)
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring 451-500 yards (5%)
Proximity 150-200 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Holes 1 and 18 are both Par 5s, so target golfers that start on 10 for birdie streaks on DK Showdown slates
- I attended this tournament inside the ropes last year and thought the course was a very good setup with all kinds of skill sets being able to play it successfully
Bets
Outrights
.6u Matt Fitzpatrick (+1800)
.5u Wyndham Clark (+2300)
.4u Brooks Koepka (+3300)
.4u Nicolai Hojgaard (+3575)
.3u Alex Fitzpatrick (+4000)
.3u Eric Cole (+4500)
.1u Zach Bauchou (+14000)
T5s (Ties Paid in Full)
.1u Zach Bauchou (+1850)
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 