This week the best golfers in the world head to one of the hardest tests in golf, the US Open, hosted this year at Shinnecock Hills on Long Island for the first time since 2018.
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7,440 yards, very long and tough course, an original links style course in America, bombers definitely have an advantage but accuracy is also important, wide fairways for a US Open (average 41 yards of width) which are wider than they were in 2018, no trees, wide open and wind could reek havoc on this place like it did in 2018, very fast fairways with a lot of roll and rough are pure fescue, golfers will need to hit certain spots on the fairway to have the angles to hit the green (Pete Dye esq. but way longer), shot shape into the green will be more important than usual here, rough is long and very thick with no intermediate between the rough and fairway with lot of long fescue outside of the rough, 151 bunkers and native sandy areas with water in play on just one hole, golfers will have an array of options for scrambling around the greens, lower ball flight will help when it gets windy, very fast coastal bentgrass/poa blend greens with wild undulation that mostly slope from back to front, weather will play a factor here if it gets windy or if it dries out
Hole by Hole Breakdown
1: Par 4 – 394 yards – Some bombers will hit the green off the tee, fairway narrows dramatically as it gets to 2 fairway bunkers on the right side around 300 yards out
2: Par 3 – 252 yards – Very long for a Par 3, southwest wind from the player’s left
3: Par 4 – 501 yards – Right dogleg, with southwest wind from the player’s left
4: Par 4 – 476 yards – Slight right dogleg, bunkers on right side of the fairway, wind in player’s face or right to left, better angle from approach shots from the right of the fairway
5: Par 5 – 592 yards – Reachable in two, easiest hole on the course, scoring here is key
6: Par 4 – 495 yards – Dogleg right, blind tee shot
7: Par 3 – 187 yards – One of the most difficult holes on the course, green is extremely firm, shot shape is key as a fade is needed off the tee
8: Par 4 – 440 yards – Hitting the left side of the fairway brings in more trouble off the tee but leaves you with a wide open approach that leaves some room for error. the right side is safer off the tee but leaves a semi-blind approach over a green side bunker with almost zero room for error, wind will be from the right towards the player
9: Par 4 – 482 yards – Blind tee shot to a fairway with a lot of movement
10: Par 4 – 415 yards – Choice off the tee with distance control important to avoid a bad downhill lie
11: Par 3 – 157 yards – Very small green, wind from left to right, long and left leaves a very difficult pitch down the slope, green side bunkers on the right
12: Par 4 – 469 yards – Narrow fairway, large green with a lot of interior ridges
13: Par 4 – 371 yards – Tough fairway to hit, which is critical, birdie looks here
14: Par 4 – 520 yards – Big drop in elevation from the tee to the fairway, which pitches right to left. Preferred angle of approach from the left
15: Par 4 – 409 yards – Front of the green is protected by several green side bunkers, wind from the left, fairway narrows between 250-350 yards, birdie looks if you hit the fairway here and have a good approach shot
16: Par 5 – 614 yards – Wind from the right, angles are important, narrow well protected green that is hard to hit if you go for it in two, easy birds won’t come here as its likely a 3 shot hole
17: Par 3 – 176 yards – Cross wind, precise shot necessary on this hole, bunkers to both sides of the green
18: Par 4 – 490 yards – Dogleg left, more of a blind tee shot and possibly blind approach depending on angles, wind form right to left, preferred tee shot is from the right side of the fairway for better angles on approach
Tournament Notes
- This course last hosted the 2018 US Open, where Brooks Koepka won his second US Open in a row
- This course has hosted the US Open six times, but saw dramatic changes to the course with a huge renovation prior to the 2018 US Open
- In 2018, Brooks was first in approach but 115 in SG: ARG
- In 2018, the top 4 in ballstriking finished 1st, 2nd, 18th, 3rd on the leaderboard
- In 2018, of the top 9 finishers, four ranked outside the top 90 in SG: OTT
- In 2018, nine of the top 16 in approach finished T20 on the leaderboard
- The cut is T60 and ties, making it the most difficult cut to make each year with the giant field
- Each of the last twelve winners of the US Open were ranking in the T35 (eight in the T25) in the world
- Nine of the last twelve winners of the US Open were American
- Ten of the last twelve winners previously had a T25 at a US Open
- Six of the last twelve winners previously had a T10 at a US Open
- Nine of the last twelve winners had a T10 in at least one of their two previous majors
- Eight of the last twelve winners were first time major winners
- Nine of the last twelve winners had a T15 in one of their two previous starts on the PGA or LIV
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, SG: ARG, Bogie Avoidance
Field
156 golfers – major strength field with all the best players on all three tours
Defending Champion (Oakmont CC): JJ Spaun (-1)
Runner Up Last Year (Oakmont CC): Robert MacIntyre (+1)
2018 Champion: Brooks Koepka (+1)
2018 Runner Up: Tommy Fleetwood (+2)
One and Done: Matt Fitzpatrick
One and Done Considerations: Matt Fitzpatrick, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm
Players
Xander Schauffele: 10100: +2000 – Playing great golf again this season without getting a win yet, two time major winner at the PGA Championship and The Open, finished T6 here in 2018 with fantastic US Open history with 12,7,10,14,7,5,3,6,5 finishes, he’s gained strokes on approach, OTT and T2G consistently almost every event this season, his T2G play was fine but he just couldn’t putt at Augusta and still finished T9, his issue this year is that he can’t put four good rounds together with three great rounds, 29,7,60,12,9,4,3,24,7,19,41,MC,1,28,22,7,8 finishes in his last 17 events, has previously won at the Genesis Scottish Open at a windy links style course in windy conditions, 11th in Approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 54th in Good Drives Gained, 53rd in Driving Distance, 113th in Par 3 Scoring, 12th in Par 4 Scoring, 44th in Sand Saves, 60th in SG: ARG, 55th in Putting, 18th in Bogie Avoidance
Matt Fitzpatrick: 8900: +2250 – Fantastic course fit, finished T12 here in 2018, former US Open Champion in 2022, 38,64,17,1,55,MC,12,12,35,54 finishes at US Opens, Best player on the PGA this season with three wins including the Zurich where he got his brother his tour card to go with his Valspar and RBC Heritage wins along with a second place finish at THE PLAYERS, coming off a second place finish for me at the RBC Canadian Open last week (think that’s probably my sixth second place of the year, 2,36,14,52,1,18,1,2,41,24,14,9,63,1,32,21,5,5,6,17,32,8 finishes in his last 22 events, 12th in Approach, 42nd in SG: OTT, 43rd in Good Drives Gained, 102nd in Driving Distance, 4th in Par 3 Scoring, 19th in Par 4 Scoring, 36th in Sand Saves, 2nd in SG: ARG, 72nd in Putting, 5th in Bogie Avoidance
Tyrell Hatton: 8700: +4000 – Plays well on tough major championship courses and has a good major track record, plays well in the wind, finished T6 here in 2018, 4,26,26,56,MC,MC,21,6,MC finishes at US Opens, MC,3,16,4,60,14,MC,26,63,9 finishes in his last ten majors since leaving the PGA Tour, coming off a win at Valderrama with 1,WD,17,T5,T38 finishes on LIV this season, 18th in Approach, 15th in SG: OTT, 12th in Good Drives Gained, 24th in Driving Distance, 11th in Par 3 Scoring, 26th in Par 4 Scoring, 13th in Sand Saves, 14th in SG: ARG, 102nd in Putting, 98th in Bogie Avoidance, stats are skewed since he’s on LIV Golf where there’s no publicly available strokes gained data (most of these stats are from majors), betting him in the non-Scheffler/Rory/Rahm market
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Good Drives Gained (5%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (15%)
Sand Saves (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (10%)
Bogie Avoidance (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- In 2018, Brooks Koepka was far and away my favorite pick for the week and I cashed in a huge win on him at +2000 for the second year in a row in horrendous course conditions
- Keeping my card smaller than usual this week since I like the big guns but not enough to bet them at their prices. I’ll be looking at live bets early in the week (I’ll tweet out any that I add).
Bets
Outrights
.6u Xander Schauffele (+2000)
.5u Matt Fitzpatrick (+2250)
Outrights without Scheffler, Rahm, McIlroy
.5u Tyrrell Hatton (+3575)
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