Following Wyndham Clark’s wire-to-wire US Open win, this week the PGA Tour heads to the Travelers Championship with a signature event at TPC River Highlands in Hartford, CT. Let’s cash the winner!
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 6844 yards, shortest course on tour this season, Pete Dye re-designed course, eight of the Par 4s are between 400-450 yards, both Par 5s are reachable and there’s a short and drivable Hole 15 Par 4 that 90% of the field goes for off the tee, guys could club down and hit their spots where they want, lot of birdie opportunities here, doesn’t favor any particular ball flight, wide (around 30 yards on average) and easy fairways to hit here (~68% vs. ~62% tour average), trees in play if you miss the fairways, the fairways get narrower the farther from the tee you go and around the landing area at about 300 yards, 69 bunkers, water in play on five holes and isn’t a big factor, first cut of rough isn’t very penal but gets tougher with bigger misses, top ten hardest courses on tour to scramble from the rough, soft and receptive predominately POA greens with a mix of bentgrass, greens are smaller but slightly easier than average to hit (~68% vs. ~66% tour average), fast greens have a bit of slope and not much undulation, lot of the greens are elevated, pins could be located in tough spots, greens are guarded by collection areas, water, thick rough and bunkers
Tournament Notes
- 4 of the last 16 winners got their first career win here
- Each of the last six winners here played in the US Open the previous week, five made the cut at the US Open, and three finished in the T15 at the US Open
- 5 of the last 13 winners were coming into the week off a missed cut in their previous event
- 10 of the last 12 winners have posted at least a T30 here before winning
- Since 2001, only 2 golfers (Phil in 2001, Spieth in 2017) won on their first time here
- SG: OTT is much more important here than ATG, but both are outweighed by approach, as usual
- No cut event this week
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (24.6%)
Corollary Courses
- Pete Dye tracks. Slightly different than other Pete Dye tracks but still has a lot of similar elements
- Riviera Country Club (Genesis Open) – lot of crossover success
- Copperhead Course (Valspar Championship) – lot of crossover success
Field
72 golfers – All the top players in the field for this signature event besides Rory McIlroy
Defending Champion: Keegan Bradley (-15)
Runner Up Last Year: Tommy Fleetwood & Russell Henley (-14)
One and Done: Gary Woodland
One and Done Considerations: Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Gary Woodland
Players
Scottie Scheffler: 13800: +450 – The best golfer in the world and even though he hasn’t been as elite this season he is due for a win and playing well, former winner here in 2024 with 6,1,4,13,46,MC finishes here, 4,12,3,14,2,2,2,22,24,12,4,3,1,1,4,1,3,1 finishes in his last 18 events, 4th in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring 401–450 Yards, 6th in Par 5 Scoring, 3rd in SG: ARG, 19th in Putting, 17th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Feet from Proximity 151–175 Yards, 30th in Opportunities Gained Inside 10 Feet, 6th in Birdie+ Gained, I’m taking him for less than what I typically would at these odds and I’m going to try to hit the double on him winning and one of my other four guys in the non-Scheffler market
Matt Fitzpatrick: 10000: +2250 – Best player on the PGA this season with three wins including the Zurich where he got his brother his tour card to go with his Valspar and RBC Heritage wins along with a second place finish at THE PLAYERS,, has gained on Approach every event this season besides the Arnold Palmer Invitational, in his two easy courses (RBC Heritage and RBC Canadian Open) since he’s won and come in second, 22,2,36,14,52,1,18,1,2,41,24,14,9,63,1,32,21,5,5,6,17,32,8 finishes in his last 23 events, 17,36,49,MC finishes here, 2nd in Approach, 29th in SG: OTT, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Par 4 Scoring 401–450 Yards, 15th in Par 5 Scoring, 1st in SG: ARG, 44th in Putting, 50th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Feet from Proximity 151–175 Yards, 65th in Opportunities Gained Inside 10 Feet, 30th in Birdie+ Gained
Collin Morikawa: 9200: +3100 – Played fantastic golf to start the year and seems to be back healthy after he had to WD from THE PLAYERS with a back injury after he played one hole, won earlier this season at a signature event at Pebble Beach, has gained on approach in every event he’s played this season, 42,13,MC,MC,36 finishes here, 17,29,55,62,4,7,WD,5,7,1,54,MC,14,43,33,22 finishes in his last 16 events, 3rd in Approach, 25th in SG: OTT, 21st in Par 4 Scoring, 40th in Par 4 Scoring 401–450 Yards, 5th in Par 5 Scoring, 27th in SG: ARG, 18th in Putting, 13th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Feet from Proximity 151–175 Yards, 8th in Opportunities Gained Inside 10 Feet, 1st in Birdie+ Gained
Russell Henley: 9000: +3400 – Has been playing really solid golf this season, maps out nicely for the course, after a bad Saturday at the US Open last last he bounced back nice and gained 3.21 strokes on approach on Sunday, already won this season a few weeks ago cashing in my outright at the Charles Schwab, runner up here last year with 2,48,19,19,32,MC,6,11 finishes and has never lost strokes on approach here, 65,22,1,MC,49,25,3,MC,13,6,MC,19,8,19,19,15,17,10,2,10,5,MC,46,8,MC,30,1,6 finishes in his last 28 events, 22nd in Approach, 20th in SG: OTT, 13th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring 401–450 Yards, 21st in Par 5 Scoring, 33rd in SG: ARG, 26th in Putting, 2nd in Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Feet from Proximity 151–175 Yards, 7th in Opportunities Gained Inside 10 Feet, 61st in Birdie+ Gained
Gary Woodland: 7600: +6500 – Pops a ton in my model and maps out great for the course, already won this year at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, playing great lately, coming of a T7 at the US Open with 7,36,6,MC,17,38,8,33,1,14 finishes in his last ten events, 24th in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 11th in Par 4 Scoring 401–450 Yards, 66th in Par 5 Scoring, 64th in SG: ARG, 16th in Putting, 7th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Feet from Proximity 151–175 Yards, 4th in Opportunities Gained Inside 10 Feet, 11th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 401-450 yards (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 feet from Proximity 151-175 yards (10%)
Opportunities Gained Inside 10 feet (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- There’s a slight advantage on Showdown slates for birdie streaks if golfers start on the back nine due to the wraparound
- I hit the winner here on Scottie Scheffler in 2024
- I like Scottie to win this week, but at his odds I’m just taking him for less than what I typically would and trying to hit the double with him and one of my other guys in the non-Scheffler market
Bets
Outrights
1.5u Scottie Scheffler (+450)
Outrights (without Scheffler)
.5u Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200)
.4u Collin Morikawa (+2600)
.4u Russell Henley (+2800)
.2u Gary Woodland (+5500)
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