Last week on the PGA Tour, I had the second, third, and fourth finishers, almost hitting double outrights if it weren’t for Hovland’s win. Let’s bounce back and hit the winner at the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run in the Quad Cities!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7327 yards, bentgrass throughout, top ten easiest course on tour on a yearly basis, five of the Par 4s are between 400-450 yards, the three Par 5s should be reachable in two by most of the field along with the drivable Par 4 14th, wide tree lined fairways guarded by large bunkers in the landing zones, 4 inch rough is fairly penal but doesn’t come in play that often since driving accuracy is ~71% (tour average ~62%), fairways usually play firm with a good amount of roll with lot of uneven lies and undulations in the fairway, three water hazards in play on three holes, large greens guarded by bunkers and collection areas, greens are very easy to hit and very receptive with ~70% GIR (vs. tour average ~66%) and slow with a bit of undulation and slope, one of the easiest course on tour for putting with almost 20% of putts from 15-25 feet going in the hole, getting up and down is difficult though if you miss the green, 76 bunkers on the course that were all completely rebuilt and slightly changed after the 2021 event, this place is a birdiefest with the most birdies on tour and there are nine holes with a birdie rate of 20%+
Tournament Notes
- There have been 24 first time winners here since 1971, the most of any PGA Tour event
- Since 2008, 8 of the 16 winners were in the T50 of the OWGR (6 of the 16 were in the T20) and two of the ones outside of that were Spieth and Bryson when they won, who went on to become superstars. This stat doesn’t mean much though this week with how weak the field is
- In 2018, every golfer that finished in the T10 gained strokes in proximity 150-175 yards and all besides Varner gained from 175-200 yards. In 2019, all but Frittelli (who was putting lights out on the way to his win) and Chris Stroud, everyone in the T10 gained strokes in proximity 150-175 yards.
- This used to be the last chance into the Open Championship but that is no longer the case with the current schedule.
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Birdie+ Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (20.6%), 125-150 yards (20.2%), 150-175 yards (18.9%)
Corollary Courses
- Kapalua Resort Plantation Course (Sentry Tournament of Champions) – Lots of winners of this had success at Kapalua, but barely any are in the field this week
- PGA West (The American Express) – lots of crossover success
Field
144 golfers – Not as horrendous of a field that this event usually gets
Defending Champion: Brian Campbell (-18 in a playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Emiliano Grillo (-18)
One and Done: Tom Kim
One and Done Considerations: Tom Kim, Chris Gotterup, Jackson Koivun
Players
Chris Gotterup: 10700: +1800 – One of the top players in the field, already has two wins early this season at the Sony Open and WM Phoenix Open, has gained strokes on approach in every event this year besides the Cadillac Championship, 21,MC,4 finishes here, 30,43,27,10,14,38,25,24,6,56,18,MC,37,1,18,1 finishes in his 16 events this season, 32nd in Approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 11th in Par 4 Scoring 401–450 Yards, 71st in Par 5 Scoring, 111th in SG: ARG, 11th in Putting, 92nd in Scoring Opportunities Inside 10 Feet from Proximity 101–150 Yards, 47th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Feet from Proximity 151–175 Yards, 124th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Feet from Proximity 201+ Yards, 21st in Birdie+ Gained
Jackson Koivun: 9400: +2700 – Making his first professional start after playing fantastic golf as the #1 ranked amateur in the world after earning his Tour card at Auburn, coming off a T23 finish at the US Open gaining strokes in every facet of his game at Shinnecock with 23,4,5,6,11,MC,48,56,MC,52 finishes in PGA Tour events as an amateur, T11 finish here last year as an amateur, 44th in Approach, 20th in SG: OTT, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring 401–450 Yards, 8th in Par 5 Scoring, 95th in SG: ARG, 9th in Putting, 49th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 10 Feet from Proximity 101–150 Yards, 53rd in Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Feet from Proximity 151–175 Yards, 81st in Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Feet from Proximity 201+ Yards, 82nd in Birdie+ Gained
Eric Cole: 9100: +3080 – Playing very good golf this season and his bad play off the tee shouldn’t be as much of a detriment this week, I bet him hard in his rookie season pretty much every week and with a ton of great finishes couldn’t win and now he’s playing to that level again, 60,7,42,MC finishes here, 38,MC,8,2,31,6,14,51 finishes in his last eight events, 15th in Approach, 119th in SG: OTT, 12th in Par 4 Scoring, 39th in Par 4 Scoring 401–450 Yards, 6th in Par 5 Scoring, 1st in SG: ARG, 4th in Putting, 27th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 10 Feet from Proximity 101–150 Yards, 64th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Feet from Proximity 151–175 Yards, 36th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Feet from Proximity 201+ Yards, 1st in Birdie+ Gained
Tom Kim: 8700: +3500 – Hasn’t been great this season but is coming off a fantastic US Open where he gained strokes in every aspect of his game, has gained strokes on approach and ballstriking in his last five events, missed the cut in his only time here last year, 3,15,54,54,6,MC,56,18,59,34,35,65,38,61,56,11 finishes in his last 16 events, 2nd in Approach, 91st in SG: OTT, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring 401–450 Yards, 66th in Par 5 Scoring, 22nd in SG: ARG, 60th in Putting, 5th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 10 Feet from Proximity 101–150 Yards, 50th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Feet from Proximity 151–175 Yards, 96th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Feet from Proximity 201+ Yards, 41st in Birdie+ Gained
Doug Ghim: 8600: +4500 – Terrible at putting but his tee to green, OTT, ballstriking and ARG game lately has been quite good, 31,34,26,MC,18,WD finishes here, 15,28,31,19,30,MC,40,26,MC,59,MC,55,6,13,31 finishes in his last 15 events, 42nd in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 24th in Par 4 Scoring 401–450 Yards, 46th in Par 5 Scoring, 28th in SG: ARG, 92nd in Putting, 37th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 10 Feet from Proximity 101–150 Yards, 37th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Feet from Proximity 151–175 Yards, 13th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Feet from Proximity 201+ Yards, 32nd in Birdie+ Gained
Blades Brown: 7600: +6600 – His form lately has been awesome in a bunch of weak field events, in his last three events he’s gained strokes in every facet of his game besides SG: ARG, 14,9,40,3,MC,18,MC,34,MC,37,MC,MC,34,MC,26 finishes in his 15 events on the PGA Tour, first time playing this event, 28th in Approach, 53rd in SG: OTT, 17th in Par 4 Scoring, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring 401–450 Yards, 47th in Par 5 Scoring, 110th in SG: ARG, 31st in Putting, 23rd in Scoring Opportunities Inside 10 Feet from Proximity 101–150 Yards, 79th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Feet from Proximity 151–175 Yards, 90th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Feet from Proximity 201+ Yards, 14th in Birdie+ Gained, also taking the T6 Each Way
Jackson Suber: 7400: +6000 – Playing great lately besides at the US Open where his game was a disaster, I was inside the ropes with him last year at the RBC Canadian Open where he was great ballstriking (he played great again there this year), 30,MC,4,67,4,19,MC,28,MC,MC,63,70,MC,51,MC,11,15 finishes in his last 17 events, missed the cut his only time here last year, 10th in Approach, 28th in SG: OTT, 76th in Par 4 Scoring, 80th in Par 4 Scoring 401–450 Yards, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 65th in SG: ARG, 76th in Putting, 42nd in Scoring Opportunities Inside 10 Feet from Proximity 101–150 Yards, 114th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Feet from Proximity 151–175 Yards, 11th in Scoring Opportunities Inside 15 Feet from Proximity 201+ Yards, 16th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring 401-450 yards (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Scoring Opportunities inside 10 feet from Proximity 101-150 yards (5%)
Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 151-175 yards (5%)
Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 201+ yards (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (15%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Ownership percentage could play more of a factor due to the ridiculously weak field
- This could be a good week to catch great numbers live, especially on Thursday and Friday
- 9 and 18 are the two hardest holes on the course, so not real advantage for the wraparound on Showdown slates (although there is a very little bit of an edge to guys starting on 10)
- I hit the winner on Davis Thompson here in 2024 at +2300 and last year hit the T5 on Kevin Roy at +1300
Bets
Outrights
.7u Chris Gotterup (+1800)
.5u Jackson Koivun (+2700)
.4u Eric Cole (+3080)
.4u Tom Kim (+3500)
.3u Doug Ghim (+4500)
.2u Jackson Suber (+6000)
.2u Blades Brown (+6600)
T6 Each Way
.2u Blades Brown (+1320)
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