Coming back from The Open Championship to close out major season, this week the PGA Tour heads to TPC Twin Cities in Minneapolis as Scottie Scheffler takes on a pretty weak field at the 3M Open. Let’s win!

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Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7431 yards, designed by Arnold Palmer and Tom Lehman, altitude above sea level so shots will go farther than normal, lot of tee boxes so the length of the course could be adjusted easily from round to round, very easy course that was a birdiefest on the Sr. Tour (average winning score of -21) which continued on the PGA but has played a bit tougher the last few years, three of the four Par 3’s are over 200 yards, the Par 4s range quite a bit in distance, the Par 5s are long but can be reachable by some of the field, ton of water here with 27 water hazards (in play on 15 holes), 72 bunkers on the course, wide tree lined fairways around an average of 36 yards in width, weird fescue if you miss wildly off the tee and miss the water, only 2.5 inch regular rough that isn’t penal, bunkers in the landing zones and water in play on a lot of holes, trees aren’t bunched up with a lot of room between the trees and fairway, above average size relatively flat greens, run off area only on the front of most greens, bunkers, water and some rough surrounding the greens, pure bentgrass greens (only Colonial and Augusta have that), tour average driving accuracy, better than tour average GIR % (~71% vs. 66%), longer than tour average driving distance (~291 vs. 284 yards), wind could make the course a bit tougher but its still pretty easy to score on

Tournament Notes

• Formerly this course hosted the 3M Championship on the Champions Tour
• SG: ARG has barely any impact whatsoever on finishes here
• Before 2023 where this didn’t apply to four of the twelve golfers that finished T10, every golfer with a T10 finish here has gained on both approach and SG: T2G (in 2022 Danny Willett lost 0.1 strokes on approach). In 2024, all but two of the eleven golfers in the T10 gained strokes T2G and on approach. Last year of the T10, only Alex Noren lost strokes on approach and T2G
• In 2019, 8 of the 12 golfers that finished T10 gained at least 2.2 SG: OTT (all but one gained in SG: OTT). In 2020, 9 of the 11 golfers that finished T10 gained in SG: OTT. In 2021, 10 of the 11 golfers that finished T10 gained in SG: OTT (Brian Stuard lost 0.3 strokes). In 2022, 10 of the 12 golfers that finished T10 gained in SG: OTT. In 2023, only two golfers in the T19 gained in SG: OTT. In 2024, all but one of the 18 golfer in the T12 gained in SG: OTT. Last year, all ten players in the T10 gained strokes SG: OTT.
• In 2019 and 2020, everyone that finished T10 had at least 19 birdies or better for the tournament. In 2021, the 11 golfers that finished T10, had at least 15 (6 of those 11 had at least 19) and played a bit more difficult with windier conditions. In 2023, every golfer that finished T10 had at least 18 birdies or better.
• In 2019, the 12 golfers that finished T10 averaged 23 birdies or better and all were -16 or better and there were only 3 double bogies or worse
• In 2019, 8 of the 12 golfers that finished T10 shot -7 or better on the Par 4s and only Sam Burns and Troy Merritt shot worse than -5
• Distance in 2023 off the tee didn’t seem to mean much despite the average driving distance here being a good amount longer than tour average, with none of the Top 12 in distance finishing T15, but seven of the top nine finishers gained at least 2.7 strokes OTT

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (22.7%), 175-200 yards (21.4%)

Corollary Courses

PGA National (The Honda Classic) – Crossover success, has a ton of water and along with PGA National, this course has the most approach shots on Tour between 175-200 yards

Field

138 golfers – terrible field strength besides Scheffler at the top

Defending Champion: Kurt Kitayama (-23)

Runner Up Last Year: Scott Stevens (-22)

One and Done: Jackson Suber

One and Done Considerations: Scottie Scheffler, Tom Kim, Jackson Suber, Kurt Kitayama (I need some low owned guys performing well these last few weeks of the season)

Players

Kurt Kitayama: 9800: +2250 – Defending champion here and came T6 the year before that in his first time here, nice statistical fit for the course to repeat, iron play is fantastic and has only lost on approach just once this past year in a non-major, 40,44,25,53,22,10,19,9,8,51,60,MC,18,2,48,24,MC,40,15,48,19,9,31,1,14,5 finishes in his last 26 events, 16th in Approach, 22nd in SG: OTT, 28th in Good Drives, 17th in Par 3 Scoring 201-225 yards, 14th in Par 4 Scoring, 62nd in Par 5 Scoring, 48th in Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 176-200 yards, 51st in Proximity 200+ yards, 53rd in SG: ARG, 71st in Putting, 25th in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 29th in Birdie+ Gained, I’m also taking the exacta straight forecasts (“boxing” them) on him and Scheffler coming first and second

Tom Kim: 9300: +2900 – I was a week early betting him at the John Deere Classic after his fantastic third place finish at the US Open where he gained strokes in every aspect of his game and then won at the Genesis Scottish Open, prior to his missed cut last week at The Open he had gained strokes on approach and ballstriking in his prior seven events, MC,1,46,3,15,54,54,6,MC,56,18,59,34,35,65,38,61,56,11 finishes in his last 19 events, T29 and T26 finishes here last year and in 2022, 1st in Approach, 71st in SG: OTT, 18th in Good Drives, 60th in Par 3 Scoring 201-225 yards, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 87th in Par 5 Scoring, 5th in Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 176-200 yards, 30th in Proximity 200+ yards, 23rd in SG: ARG, 53rd in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 35th in Birdie+ Gained, got him at pretty much the same number on the without Scheffler market as I would have on his outright

Doug Ghim: 9000: +4900 – His iron game has been improving lately and he’s elite off the tee in this field, one of the best in the field on Par 4s, his putting is horrendous though, MC,6,15,28,31,19,30,MC,40,26,MC,59,MC,55,6,13,31 finishes in his last 17 events, MC,24,27,16,MC,18 finishes here where he’s never lost strokes T2G or OTT, 36th in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 30th in Good Drives, 67th in Par 3 Scoring 201-225 yards, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 56th in Par 5 Scoring, 89th in Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 176-200 yards, 51st in Proximity 200+ yards, 18th in SG: ARG, 90th in Putting, 16th in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 17th in Birdie+ Gained

Jackson Suber: 8900: +4400 – Playing great golf lately (beside the US Open where his game was a disaster) and keeps popping on leaderboards, he was impressive last week as the solo first round leader at The Open at his first links course, has played better in weak field events, I was inside the ropes with him last year at the RBC Canadian Open where he was great ballstriking (he played great again there this year), 28,6,30,MC,4,67,4,19,MC,28,MC,MC,63,70,MC,51,MC,11,15 finishes in his last 19 events, missed the cut his only time here last year, second in my model this week behind Scottie Scheffler, 9th in Approach, 18th in SG: OTT, 10th in Good Drives, 36th in Par 3 Scoring 201-225 yards, 20th in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 13th in Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 176-200 yards, 4th in Proximity 200+ yards, 47th in SG: ARG, 72nd in Putting, 69th in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, got him at the same number on the without Scheffler market as I would have on his outright

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Good Drives (5%)

Par 3 Scoring 201-225 yards (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Par 5 Scoring (5%)

Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 176-200 yards (5%)

Proximity 200+ yards (10%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• For showdown slates, it’s a slight advantage to stack guys that start on the back nine since 9 is one of the toughest holes on the course but 18 and 1 are two of the easiest
• Scottie Scheffler is far and away the best player in the field, but his odds are unbettable at +270, so I’ll be taking all my picks in the non-Scheffler market. That gaps is even bigger on Draftkings, where he is the only player in the field over 9900, at a price of 14900.

Bets

Outrights (without Scheffler)

.6u Kurt Kitayama (+1967)

.4u Tom Kim (+2800)

.3u Doug Ghim (+4000)

.3u Jackson Suber (+4400)

Exacta Straight Forecasts

.1u Scottie Scheffler/Kurt Kitayama (+8000)

.1u Kurt Kitayama/Scottie Scheffler (+8000)

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