The PGA Tour regular season ends this week at the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, NC. Let’s hit the winner to head into the FedEx Cup Playoffs!

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Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7131 yards, Donald Ross design, one of the easiest courses on tour, birdiefest, Bermuda grass throughout, 52 bunkers, water in play on six holes, both Par 5s are easily reachable by the entire field (over 70 eagles on the two Par 5s in 2019), eight of the twelve Par 4s are in 400-450 yards range, two Par 4s play over 500 yards, average sized tree lined fairways, just a few fairway bunkers, light rough but there could be weird lies out of the Bermuda grass making distance control tough, lot of less than driver off the tee, placement off the tee is more important than length similar to a Pete Dye design, GIR percentage is way higher than tour average (~73% vs. 66%), GIR from the fairway is over 80% and GIR from the rough is around 50% so that’s a huge gap, small to average sized undulated and sloped multi-tiered greens (back to front), very fast green speeds, there are a lot of shallow bunkers and water guarding the greens on a few holes, edges of the greens are crowned with large collection areas, one of the toughest putting courses on tour which is a staple of Donald Ross designs, high three putt percentage (~68% vs. 54% tour average) with the greens being the biggest defense of the course

Tournament Notes

• The Wyndham Championship has been played here since 2008, but the greens were changed to Bermuda from bentgrass in 2012
• Final event of the regular PGA Tour season before the FedEx Cup playoffs (Top 70 make the FedEx St. Jude Championship next week), so it makes this event matter a lot more but when this was to make the top 125 it didn’t seem to shake out to any actual results for the players on the bubble.
• Any skill set can win here
• Course history plays a big factor here
• 8 of the last 10 winners here have won at -20 or better
• 10 of the last 14 winners have ranked T15 for the week in driving accuracy

Key Stats

Approach, Fairways Gained, Par 4s 400-450 yards

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (26.8%)

Corollary Courses

• Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
• Waialae Country Club (Sony Open)
• TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS)

Crossover success and similar setups with short Par 70s and Bermuda grass

Field

147 golfers – Not a terrrible field to try to get into the FedEx Cup Playoffs

Defending Champion: Cameron Young (-22)

Runner Up Last Year: Mac Meissner (-16)

One and Done: Ben Kohles

One and Done Considerations: Tom Kim, Cameron Young, Ben Kohles

Players

Jackson Koivun: 10100: +2400 – This kid’s going to be a great player after being the top ranked amateur golfer ever, got his debut win two weeks at the 3M Open in just his third PGA Tour event since becoming a pro, finished T5 here last year as an amateur gaining strokes in every facet of his game, 31,1,10,MC,23,4,5,6,11,MC,48,56,MC,52 finishes in PGA Tour events both as a pro and an amateur, 4th in Approach, 19th in SG: OTT, 26th in Good Drives Gained, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 6th in Par 4 Scoring 401-450 yards, 49th in Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 151-175 yards, 27th in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 54th in SG: ARG, 2nd in Putting, 21st in 3 Putt Avoidance

Tom Kim: 9200: +3500 – I was a week early betting him at the John Deere Classic after his fantastic third place finish at the US Open where he gained strokes in every aspect of his game and then won at the Genesis Scottish Open, prior to his missed cut three weeks ago at The Open he had gained strokes on approach and ballstriking in his prior seven events, best player in the field on approach, his driving accuracy has been much better lately, very good in Par 4s ranging from 450-500 yards, Bermuda is his best putting surface, 20,MC,1,46,3,15,54,54,6,MC,56,18,59,34,35,65,38,61,56,11 finishes in his last 20 events, former winner here in 2022 and WD here last year, 1st in Approach, 64th in SG: OTT, 11th in Good Drives Gained, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring 401-450 yards, 10th in Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 151-175 yards, 6th in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 21st in Birdie+ Gained, 32nd in SG: ARG, 79th in Putting, 46th in 3 Putt Avoidance

Davis Thompson: 8400: +5400 – Playing great in his last few starts and maps out nicely for this course to pop in my model, 8,7,MC,26,MC,45,35,MC,13,14,MC,46,MC,4 finishes in his last 14 events, really solid course history with 11,12,22,MC finishes here, 20th in Approach, 26th in SG: OTT, 68th in Good Drives Gained, 14th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Par 4 Scoring 401-450 yards, 2nd in Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 151-175 yards, 1st in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 14th in Birdie+ Gained, 65th in SG: ARG, 89th in Putting, 29th in 3 Putt Avoidance, his number is almost double on DraftKings than it is everywhere else

Blades Brown: 7800: +7150 – His form lately has been awesome in a bunch of weak field events, in his last five events he’s gained strokes in every facet of his game besides SG: ARG, missed the playoff by a stroke last week on the Korn Ferry Tour, his approach game has been fantastic lately, accurate off the tee, his short game has been solid, has gained strokes putting in his last nine straight PGA Tour starts, first time playing this event, 11,12,14,9,40,3,MC,18,MC,34,MC,37,MC,MC,34,MC,26 finishes in his 17 events on the PGA Tour, 18th in Approach, 46th in SG: OTT, 27th in Good Drives Gained, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 13th in Par 4 Scoring 401-450 yards, 69th in Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 151-175 yards, 66th in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, 70th in SG: ARG, 25th in Putting, 6th in 3 Putt Avoidance

Ben Kohles: 7700: +6000 – First in my model this week, has been playing really well in weak fields lately and was towards the top of the leaderboard again two weeks ago at the 3M Open with great ballstriking and T2G play before he imploded on Sunday to finish 9th, his chipping has been awful, 26,9,15,3,23,29,MC,MC,31,42,34,61,63,20 finishes in his last 16 events, MC,MC,54 finishes here, 2nd in Approach, 48th in SG: OTT, 2nd in Good Drives Gained, 12th in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring 401-450 yards, 4th in Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 151-175 yards, 2nd in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 14th in Birdie+ Gained, 73rd in SG: ARG, 44th in Putting, 82nd in 3 Putt Avoidance

Model

Approach (25%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Good Drives Gained (10%)

Par 4 Scoring (5%)

Par 4 Scoring 401-450 yards (10%)

Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 151-175 yards (10%)

Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

3 Putt Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• I hit the winner here in 2024 on Aaron Rai

Bets

Outrights

.5u Jackson Koivun (+2400)

.4u Tom Kim (+3500)

.2u Davis Thompson (+5400)

.2u Ben Kohles (+6000)

.2u Blades Brown (+7150)

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