This week we head into the Tour Championship at East Lake for the final event of this PGA Tour season and I’m coming off back to back wins. Let’s make it three outrights in a row to end the golf year!

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Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7490 yards, the course was lengthened a bit this year, Donald Ross designed course with Reese Jones redesign (1994), all three Par 5’s are reachable but if the prevailing winds shift (usually the wind is to the golfer’s back) but the 18th hole will be tougher to hit by shorter hitters, all four Par 3s are difficult with three of them being over 200 yards (the other is 195 yards), four of the Par 4s are over 450 yards and five of them are between 400-450 yards, fairly narrow tree lined fairways, Zoysia grass fairways that are a new type of Zoysia that plays a bit firmer than past years, large bunkers in play at the landing zones, 78 bunkers, water in play on eight holes, rough is thick and penal (less than 50% of approach shots from the rough hit the green), toughest fairways to hit on tour (much harder than tour average, 56% vs. 62%), average driving distance longer than tour average (299 vs. 284), very fast Bermuda greens (12.5 on the stimpmeter), firmness all depends on weather conditions, wide variety of large multi-tiered greens with a lot of slope and smaller greens with a lot of back to front slope, need to hit certain spots on greens for realistic birdie chances, the contours on some greens were changed on some holes a few years ago, greenside bunkers in play on most holes with a majority of them guarding the very front of the greens, lot of prevailing winds here

Tournament Notes

• Final event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs and the PGA Tour season
• The starting strokes format that ran from 2019-2024 is gone just like last year – the winner of this tournament wins the FedEx Cup
• Since 2012, the average finish of golfers that finish T3 here in the prior three playoff events is 26th (before 2024 when the format of the playoffs was changed from 125/70/30 to 70/50/30), so current form matters, almost 60% of which had 0 T5s in those three playoff events.
• Some non-elite players pop here

Key Stats

SG: Approach, GIR Gained, Par 4 Scoring

Corollary Courses

Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) – Donald Ross design with some crossover success especially on players that aren’t long off the tee

Field

Top 30 golfers in FedEx Cup standings

Defending Champion: Tommy Fleetwood (-18)

Runner Up Last Year: Patrick Cantlay, Russell Henley (-15)

Players

Sam Burns: 9200: +1800 – He was my favorite pick two weeks ago at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and went into Sunday looking great before Scottie stormed him and the rest of the field, had the chance to give me a double win on the winner without Scheffler market but bogied the 72nd hole to finish T3, plays hard courses with strong fields very well, last week his approach play was still good (and gained strokes) even with his bad finish at the BMW Championship, prior to last week he had gained on approach and T2G in his past six straight starts with four T5 finishes and no result worse than T20, 28,3,3,12,2,20,4,26,37,38,16,7,21,13,MC,MC,6,MC,27,13,7,4,28 finishes in his last 23 events, 7,12,9,24,18 finishes here (7,13,4,25,17 finishes without starting strokes in 2024-2021), 4th in Approach, 22nd in SG: OTT, 20th in Driving Accuracy, 17th in Driving Distance, 19th in Par 3 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 14th in Sand Saves, 15th in SG: ARG, 5th in Putting, 14th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 9th in Birdie+ Gained, 5th in Bogie Avoidance, boosted him to get better odds on the without Scheffler market than the outright

Patrick Cantlay: 8900: +1800 – Playing very well lately and gaining strokes everywhere besides his putting these last two playoff events, finished second last week at the BMW Championship and gained strokes in every facet of his game besides putting, finished T2 here last year without the starting strokes format, former winner here with the starting strokes format in 2021 with 17,5,7,1,21 finishes (19,6,20,4,28 finishes without starting strokes) and 21,20 finishes in 2018 and 2017 before the new format, 2,12,8,28,MC,14,MC,17,35,10,8,12,7,32,MC,37,14,MC,13 finishes in his last 18 events, 3rd in Approach, 16th in SG: OTT, 16th in Driving Accuracy, 25th in Driving Distance, 21st in Par 3 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 24th in Sand Saves, 13th in SG: ARG, 21st in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 8th in Birdie+ Gained, 11th in Bogie Avoidance, also taking him in exactas with Scheffler

Si Woo Kim: 7700: +2800 – Third in my model this week, ashed me a win in the winner without Scheffler market two weeks ago with his solo 2nd finish at the FedEx St. Jude, 33,2,42,6,9,11,84,42,31,28,8,17,15,8,MC,MC,38,19,24,21,12 finishes in his last 21 events, playing well lately in tougher events, finished T20 here in 2023 (T17 without starting strokes) and finished T10 here in 2016, 5th in Approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 3rd in Driving Accuracy, 36th in Driving Distance, 1st in Par 3 Scoring, 12th in Par 4 Scoring, 24th in Sand Saves, 8th in SG: ARG, 18th in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, 7th in Bogie Avoidance

Tom Kim: 6800: +5000 – Won this season already at the Genesis Scottish Open and has been at the top of the leaderboard a ton lately, first time playing this course, prior to his missed cut at The Open he had gained strokes on approach and ballstriking in his prior seven events, best player in the field on approach, spectacular driving accuracy, five Top 20s in his past eight starts (with a win and three T5s in that span), 28,12,5,20,MC,1,46,3,15,54,54,6,MC,56,18,59,34,35,65,38,61,56,11 finishes in his last 23 events, last week at the BMW he was second in distance from the edge of the fairway, putts his best on Bermuda, finished T20 here in 2023 (T17 without starting strokes), 1st in Approach, 27th in SG: OTT, 6th in Driving Accuracy, 45th in Driving Distance, 15th in Par 3 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 16th in Sand Saves, 9th in SG: ARG, 8th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 5th in Birdie+ Gained, 3rd in Bogie Avoidance

Model

Approach (25%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Driving Accuracy (5%)

Par 3 Scoring: 201-225 yards (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (5%)

Par 4 Scoring: 401-450 yards (5%)

Par 4 Scoring: 451-500 yards (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet (10%)

GIRs Gained (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• With only 30 golfers in the field, there will be a ton of duplicate lineups in DFS, so you have to really differentiate your lineups leaving money on the table and doing contrarian stacks
• I hit the double winner on this tournament in 2023 hitting Hovland, who won both with and without starting strokes
• Last year I hit Tommy Fleetwood’s first PGA Tour win and also had Russell Henley, who finished T2. I took a few shots on exacta straight forecasts with Scottie Scheffler, who finished T4.
• I think Scottie Scheffler wins this week and the +350ish on him actually isn’t an awful price in this field, but I can’t bet that, so all my bets will be in the without Scottie market and straight forecast exacta boxes with Scottie.

Bets

Outrights (without Scheffler)

1u Sam Burns (+1225)

.5u Patrick Cantlay (+2100)

.5u Si Woo Kim (+2420)

.4u Tom Kim (+3900)

Straight Forecast Exactas

.2u Scottie Scheffler/Patrick Cantlay (+5500)

.2u Patrick Cantlay/Scottie Scheffler (+5500)

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