I crushed the FedEx Cup Playoffs, hitting two winners in the playoffs to close the season. This week the PGA Tour heads to a new course, The Cliffs at Walnut Cove for a new tournament, the Biltmore Championship Asheville to start the FedEx Cup Fall series. Let’s win!

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Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7249 yards, Jack Nicklaus design that plays to the natural contours of the course, all four of the Par 5s are reachable in two, four of the five Par 3s are over 199 yards, high elevation which will play a bit shorter, lot of evaluation changes, the front nine is pretty open while the back nine is pretty tree lined, bentgrass fairways that vary in size with bunkers in the landing areas, long Kentucky bluegrass rough and natural difficulties outside of that from the mountainous terrain, 75 bunkers, waters in play on seven holes, large bentgrass/poa mix greens that are very sloped and undulated

Tournament Notes

• This is a new event for this week at a new course that’s never been played on the PGA Tour.
• First event of the FedEx Cup Fall series, with golfers playing for elevated eligibility for next year with their current rankings from the regular season.
• This course previously hosted the Korn Ferry Tour from 2005-2007 and was one of the most difficult courses on that tour.
• 12 of the last 16 winners of the first Fall Series event each year were ranked in the Top 90 in the OWGR

Key Stats

Approach, Driving Accuracy, Par 3 Scoring, Par 4 Scoring

Field

132 golfers – Pretty bad field strength, as usual with fall swing season events

Players

Jackson Koivun: 10500: +1375 – Easily the best golfer in the field, this kid’s going to be a great player after being the top ranked amateur golfer ever, got his debut win this year at the 3M Open in just his third PGA Tour event since becoming a pro and made the FedEx Cup Playoffs, 24,29,31,1,10,MC,23,4,5,6,11,MC,48,56,MC,52 finishes in PGA Tour events both as a pro and an amateur, 2nd in Approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 16th in Driving Accuracy, 4th in Par 3 Scoring, 114th in Par 3 Scoring 201-225 yards, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 24th in Par 5 Scoring, 41st in Sand Saves, 25th in SG: ARG, 22nd in Putting, 13th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 4th in Birdie+ Gained, 8th in Bogie Avoidance

Doug Ghim: 10000: +2600 – Very good tee to green and improved late in the season, elite off the tee, 19,15,MC,MC,6,15,28,31,19,30,MC,40,26,MC,59,MC,55,6,13,31 finishes in his last 20 events, 24th in Approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 24th in Driving Accuracy, 42nd in Par 3 Scoring, 48th in Par 3 Scoring 201-225 yards, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 29th in Par 5 Scoring, 31st in Sand Saves, 17th in SG: ARG, 61st in Putting, 10th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 8th in Birdie+ Gained, 3rd in Bogie Avoidance

Blades Brown: 8800: +4000 – His form was very good late in the season in weak field events, besides in his last event at the Wyndham where he missed the cut with pretty bad play in every facet of his game he had gained in every facet in his prior five events, MC,11,12,14,9,40,3,MC,18,MC,34,MC,37,MC,MC,34,MC,26 finishes in his 18 events on the PGA Tour, 11th in Approach, 44th in SG: OTT, 28th in Driving Accuracy, 3rd in Par 3 Scoring, 22nd in Par 3 Scoring 201-225 yards, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 36th in Par 5 Scoring, 22nd in Sand Saves, 73rd in SG: ARG, 43rd in Putting, 35th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 4th in Birdie+ Gained, 1st in Bogie Avoidance

Jackson Suber: 8200: +4100 – Playing great golf late in the year (beside the US Open where his game was a disaster and missing the cut at the 3M) and kept popping on leaderboards, has played better in weak field events, I was inside the ropes with him last year at the RBC Canadian Open where he was great ballstriking (played great there this year too), 22,50,MC,28,6,30,MC,4,67,4,19,MC,28,MC,MC,63,70,MC,51,MC,11,15 finishes in his last 22 events, 9th in Approach, 27th in SG: OTT, 40th in Driving Accuracy, 5th in Par 3 Scoring, 9th in Par 3 Scoring 201-225 yards, 14th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 39th in Sand Saves, 11th in SG: ARG, 59th in Putting, 23rd in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 16th in Bogie Avoidance

Ben Kohles: 7700: +6300 – Played really well in weak fields late in the season and popped on some leaderboards, 29,26,9,15,3,23,29,MC,MC,31,42,34,61,63,20 finishes in his last 17 events, 3rd in Approach, 34th in SG: OTT, 1st in Driving Accuracy, 2nd in Par 3 Scoring, 26th in Par 3 Scoring 201-225 yards, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 32nd in Par 5 Scoring, 53rd in Sand Saves, 60th in SG: ARG, 40th in Putting, 12th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 11th in Birdie+ Gained, 5th in Bogie Avoidance

Zach Bauchou: 7500: +8000 – Solid longer shot in this week field with his stats popping nicely for this course, he had some success with two T10s last year, 14,MC,44,9,MC,67,MC,22,6,24,29,MC,MC,50,21,23,48,59,13 finishes in his last 19 events, 20th in Approach, 42nd in SG: OTT, 31st in Driving Accuracy, 13th in Par 3 Scoring, 36th in Par 3 Scoring 201-225 yards, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, 20th in Par 5 Scoring, 119th in Sand Saves, 54th in SG: ARG, 21st in Putting, 14th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, 7th in Bogie Avoidance, also taking his T6 each way

Model

Approach (25%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Driving Accuracy (5%)

Par 3 Scoring (5%)

Par 3 Scoring 201-225 yards (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Par 5 Scoring (5%)

Sand Saves (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (10%)

Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet (5%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

Bets

Outrights

1u Jackson Koivun (+1375)

.4u Doug Ghim (+2600)

.3u Blades Brown (+4000)

.3u Jackson Suber (+4100)

.2u Ben Kohles (+6300)

.2u Zach Bauchou (+8000)

T6 Each Ways

.2u Zach Bauchou (+1600)

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