I had both young guns that went to the playoff last week, making Blades Brown by second winner of the fall swing season. This week the PGA Tour goes to Fazio Canyons Course at Omni Barton Creek Resort & Spa for the first time for the Austin Championship. Let’s go back to back on a new course!
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7451 yards, Tom Fazio design that he rebuilt in 2022, resort course, large elevation changes on almost every hole leading to a lot of uneven lies, the back nine is a lot tougher than the front nine, six of the ten Par 4s are over 448 yards, two of the Par 3s are 228 and 230 yards, two of the Par 5s with the elevated tee boxes should be reachable in two, wide fairways and the Bermuda rough isn’t very penal, lot of big doglegs that make placement off the tee a bit more important, water in play on five holes, 43 bunkers, large Bermuda greens that are gently sloped on the front nine with a lot of tiers and contours on the back nine
Tournament Notes
- First time this course has hosted a PGA Tour event
- This was going to be the Good Good Golf Championship prior to the PGA dropping them as a sponsor after the whole Callaway driver commercial ordeal
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Proximity 150-200 yards, Par 4 Scoring
Field
114 golfers – horrible field strength without even one golfer in the Top 50 of the OWGR
Players
Blades Brown: 9900: +2500 – He’s coming off his first PGA Tour win cashing me a nice ticket last week with a fantastic Sunday going on to beat Ben James in the playoff, on a great run during this fall swing season, finished solo three two weeks ago at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship and then followed it up with his first PGA Tour win, 1,19,17,MC,11,12,14,9,40,3,MC,18,MC,34,MC,37,MC,MC,34,MC,26 finishes in his 21 events on the PGA Tour, 3rd in Approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 64th in Driving Distance, 24th in Good Drives Gained, 30th in Proximity 150-200 yards, 40th in Par 3 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring 451-500 yards, 4th in Par 5 Scoring, 60th in SG: ARG, 22nd in Putting, 30th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 8th in Birdie+ Gained, let’s take a shot on him going back to back
Doug Ghim: 9800: +1850 – First in my model this week, has played great golf recently, had some solid finishes in the fall swing season, very good tee to green and improved late in the season, elite off the tee, runner up a few weeks ago at the Bank of Utah, 617,2,17,19,15,MC,MC,6,15,28,31,19,30,MC,40,26,MC,59,MC,55,6,13,31 finishes in his last 24 events, 23rd in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 13th in Driving Distance, 19th in Good Drives Gained, 20th in Proximity 150-200 yards, 5th in Par 3 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 12th in Par 4 Scoring 451-500 yards, 9th in Par 5 Scoring, 7th in SG: ARG, 15th in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, the price on him is awful but I’m taking him since I’ve been betting him like every other fall event
Chris Kirk: 9400: +3000 – He’s been popping up and playing great through this swing season and I could see him get the win, hasn’t lost stroked on approach or ballstriking since the US Open, 12,6,21,10,72,8,31,61 finishes in his last eight events, 1st in Approach, 74th in SG: OTT, 46th in Driving Distance, 38th in Good Drives Gained, 20th in Proximity 150-200 yards, 12th in Par 3 Scoring, 38th in Par 4 Scoring, 75th in Par 4 Scoring 451-500 yards, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 23rd in SG: ARG, 85th in Putting, 5th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 8th in Birdie+ Gained
Ben Kohles: 9200: +4300 – Played really well in weak fields late in the season and popped on some leaderboards, was at the top of the leaderboard a few weeks ago but crumbled on Sunday to fall to T15 at the Biltmore Championship, second in my model this week, 25,17,17,13,15,29,26,9,15,3,23,29,MC,MC,31,42,34,61,63,20 finishes in his last 22 events, 7th in Approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 112th in Driving Distance, 2nd in Good Drives Gained, 14th in Proximity 150-200 yards, 2nd in Par 3 Scoring, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, 15th in Par 4 Scoring 451-500 yards, 21st in Par 5 Scoring, 31st in SG: ARG, 19th in Putting, 18th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained
Trace Crowe: 7700: +6500 – Pops in my model again this week, has played well his last several events including a T3 at the Bank of Utah and T11 at the Mexico Open at similar courses, maps out nicely for this course, 50,11,34,3,24,38,MC,62,34 finishes in his last eleven events, 9th in Approach, 50th in SG: OTT, 39th in Driving Distance, 34th in Good Drives Gained, 27th in Proximity 150-200 yards, 32nd in Par 3 Scoring, 29th in Par 4 Scoring, 70th in Par 4 Scoring 451-500 yards, 16th in Par 5 Scoring, 99th in SG: ARG, 32nd in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 4th in Birdie+ Gained
Emiliano Grillo: 7000: +8000 – He’s been showing up in my models lately and I think he’s worth a shot here as a long shot, 21,58,52,43,MC,MC,31,7,26,23,20,42,38 finishes in his last 13 events, 10th in Approach, 41st in SG: OTT, 84th in Driving Distance, 21st in Good Drives Gained, 14th in Proximity 150-200 yards, 14th in Par 3 Scoring, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring 451-500 yards, 50th in Par 5 Scoring, 105th in SG: ARG, 15th in Putting, 49th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 47th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Good Drives Gained (5%)
Proximity 150-200 yards (10%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 451-500 yards (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Bets
Outrights
.6u Doug Ghim (+1850)
.5u Blades Brown (+2500)
.4u Chris Kirk (+3000)
.3u Ben Kohles (+4300)
.2u Trace Crowe (+6500)
.2u Emiliano Grillo (+8000)
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