Wells Fargo Championship – Gambling Preview 2019

Quail Hollow Club – Charlotte, NC

Course Breakdown
7554 yd, Par 71, 9/11 Par 4s are over 450 yds, the other two Par 4s are short and drivable (played almost as easy as the Par 5s last year), 3/4 Par 3s are over 200 yds, Par 5s are reachable in 2 by most of the field, overseeded bermuda grass, narrow to average width tree lined fairways, not many bunkers and water on only a few holes, extremely low fairways hit (~50%), rough isn’t too penal, lot of right to left doglegs (which favors natural draw), average GIR % (~64%), average sized fast greens, consistently lowest make % of putts inside 10 ft

Tournament Notes
• 5th hardest course on tour last year (including majors), hardest 2 years ago
• Has 5 of the Top 50 most difficult holes on tour last year (1, 11, 16, 17, 18)
• The Green Mile (holes 16-18) is the hardest closing stretch on tour
• Driving accuracy doesn’t matter here since everyone misses the fairway, but distance does
• 5 of the T6 here last year gained at least 2.4 strokes OTT
• 10 of the T13 at the PGA here 2 years ago gained at least 2.2 strokes OTT
• Putting is very difficult here
• Since 2012, 5 of the 7 winners had a T10 in one of the two years previous here (Ernst and Hahn were the 2 that didn’t, both who were +50000)
• A lot of really good golfers (Rory, Rickie) got their maiden wins here

Key Stats
SG: OTT, SG: Approach, Scrambling, Par 5 Scoring

Main proximity distance ranges: 175+ yds.

Corollary Courses
• Riviera Country Club (Genesis Open) – Ton of crossover success here since they’re similar setups – long, tough courses
• Torrey Pines Golf Course (Farmers Insurance Open)

Field
Pretty good field

Defending Champion: Jason Day (-12)
Runner Up Last Year: Nick Watney, Aaron Wise (-10)

One and Done: Tony Finau
Alternate: Byeong Hun An

One and Done Considerations: Rory, Finau, Phil

Top 5: Rory, Phil, Finau, Rose, Hideki

Players
Rory: 11800: +580 – best player in the field, 2 time winner here by impressive margins and holds course record here (-21), has distance off the tee, dialed on approach, good at long Par 4s, 1st in T2G, OTT, Ballstriking, Birdie+ %, Par 4 scoring, this number is unbettable
Finau: 9300: +2000 – Always plays well at Riviera, crushes it off the tee, makes a lot of birdies, putting has been good this year, 2nd in SG: Par 5 (last 50 rounds), plays long Par 4s well
Phil: 9100: +2500 – 5,5,4,11,3 his last 5 years here, 15/15 made cuts here, gains strokes OTT here (which he typically doesn’t), knows where to miss here, great around the greens all the time, has had great putting stats every year here, plays well at Riviera every year, can spray it off the tee here and still succeed
Fatrick: 8800: +4000 – 8th and 2nd the last 2 years here, 13/14 made cuts this year, plays better on longer courses, always good around the green, checks boxes in birdie+% and bogie avoidance, plays Par 4s well, good at Par 5 scoring, good pivot of chalk Kokrak, has a natural draw ball flight, one of the best putters on fast greens
Benny An: 8300: +5500 – Bombs the ball off the tee, good ballstriking, fantastic T2G, dailed in on approach, can’t putt but the difficulty of the greens could bring him closer to the field on this, 1st in the field around the green (last 50 rounds)
JB Holmes: 7900: +8000 – Former winner here, has length off the tee, around the green and scrambling has been decent lately
Sabattini: 7700: +9000 – The “other” Rory, 2 T25s in his last 3 times here (struggled here before that), has been playing really solid lately
Wyndham Clark: 7400: +15000 – Plays well on longer courses, checks boxes in Par 5 scoring, birdie +%, bogie avoidance, around the green game is good, decent putter, 12/15 cuts made this year
Sam Burns: 7200: +10000 – Good recent form, hasn’t missed any cuts lately, made the cut here last year, good putter on Bermuda (2nd in field over last 50 rounds), scrambling has been good, T5 in driving distance (last 12 rounds)
Streb: 6800: +22500 – Even when this guy blows he’s got good history here, there’s worse flyer picks out there

DraftKings/Betting Notes
• Might try a few betting H2Hs this week
• Probably skipping DK this week since I don’t like the lower range