PGA Championship – Gambling Preview 2019

Bethpage Black Course – Long Island, NY

Course Breakdown
7436 yd. Par 70, average difficulty of fairways hit (~62%), narrow tree lined fairways with bunkers in the landing zones, harder than average greens to hit (~60%), multiple cuts of rough that go from pretty easy to very thick and gnarly, waist high fescue on a lot of holes including some around the large deep bunkers, elevated small and fast POA greens guarded mainly in the front by some huge deep bunkers with huge lips that are very hard to hit out of, greens slope heavily from back to front with not much undulation besides that

Tournament Notes
• The second major of the year
• Formally hosted the US Open in 2002 (Tiger Woods win) and 2009 (Lucas Glover win) and as a Par 71 in the 2012 Braclays (Nick Watney) and 2016 Barclays (Patrick Reed)
• First PGA Championship since schedule move from August to May
• The course is going to be wet, there’s been a ton of rain this spring in NY including this week, there will be less roll and the greens will be more receptive but it will play longer
• 18 of the last 20 major winners were in the T25 in World Golf Rankings the week before their win (Martin Kaymer was 28th and Jimmy Walker was 48th)
• 15 of the last 20 major winners were in the T15 in World Golf Rankings the week before their win
• 10 of the last 20 major winners were in the T10 in World Golf Rankings the week before their win
• 15 of last 18 PGA Champ winners won an event during the season prior to their win (on the old schedule with it in August)
• 7 of the last 10 PGA Championship winners were first time major winners

Key Stats
SG: T2G, SG: OTT, SG: Approach, Scrambling, Driving Distance

156 players with 99 of the T100 in World Golf Rankings (Besides JT, out with wrist injury)

Defending Champion (Bellerive Golf Course): Brooks Koepka (-16)
Runner Up Last Year: Tiger Woods (-14)

One and Done: Brooks Koepka
Alternate: Rickie Fowler

One and Done Considerations: Brooks, Tiger, DJ

Top 5: Brooks, Tiger, DJ, Xander, Rickie

Tiger: 11300: +1160 – Last event he played was his Masters win, 2nd last year at Bellerive, won the US Open here in 2002, playing incredible in every facet of his game, his price is going to be tough to use in Draftkings
Brooks: 10400: +975 – Maps out perfectly for this course, bombs it, 4th last week, defending champ, you’re gaining value here over the other top 5 on his Draftkings price, his ownership is gonna be high but I don’t care and will still be playing him everywhere
Rickie: 9300: +1850 – Very good ballstriker, racks up DK pts, good around the greens, great putter, has had success in majors including T5s in all 4 majors last year, 7th here in the 2016 Barclays
Xander: 9100: +2500 – Has won in big spots against top tier fields including WGC HSBC which has been the hardest course on tour this year, T10s in 4 of the past 6 majors, hits it long and accurate off the tee, game sets up well for this course, 2 runner up and 4 T6s in his 6 majors played, could be a bit higher owned, his betting price seems a little bit too high but I may get in on him anyway
Casey: 8300: +4500 – Plays hard courses well, of the T10 hardest courses on tour this season he has played 7 of them and is T25 in 6 and T5 in 4 of those, very good ballstriking, hits it pretty long and he’s accurate, hits a ton of fairways
Sergio: 7900: +4000 – In 3 trips to Bethpage he’s been T10 all 3 times, has been playing well this season including a 4th place finish at Wells Fargo 2 weeks ago, 3rd in SG Approach, putts by far his best on POA, my favorite Draftkings pick but he’s gonna be mega chalk
Webb: 7600: +6600 – T20 in his last 5 majors, good long irons, hits a ton of fairways, T30 in SG T2G, SG Approach and SG putting, really good around the greens, good at Par 4 scoring, 6th in bogie avoidance in last 50 rounds
Palmer: 7200: +15000 – Win this year at the Zurich with Rahm, 13th and 24th finishes at the Barclay’s here in 2016 and 2012, good iron player
Vegas: 7100: +13500 – Good at SG OTT, hits it long, good form recently including an 8th place finish at Wells Fargo 2 weeks ago

DraftKings/Betting Notes
As per usual with majors, the pricing on Draftkings is very soft and a lot more of the general public will be playing the Milly Maker rather than just the weekly DFS golf players.

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