Charles Schwab Challenge – Gambling Preview 2019

Colonial Country Club – Fort Worth, TX

Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7209 yds, 84 bunkers, 4 water hazards, Bermuda fairways and rough, tight tree lined fairways with bunkers in play on pretty much every tee shot, rough isn’t too high but wirey so it’s tough to hit out of, harder than average fairways to hit (~56%), most golfers will go less than driver on a lot of holes, plotters course where accuracy and shot placement matters more than distance, a lot of doglegs with 7 of the 11 favoring a left to right ball flight, average GIR % (~65%), tiny average speed bentgrass greens with a bit of undulation, lot of bunkers around the green especially in front of them, weather plays a big factor here

Tournament Notes
• Formerly called the Fort Worth Invitational and the Dean & DeLuca Invitational and several other names before those
• Experience/course history matter here, the winners of this event since 2001 have averaged 7 appearances here prior to their win
• Only 8 golfers in 68 years have gotten their maiden victory here
• Before Justin Rose won last year, the 4 winners before that had finished T15 or better the year previous here

Key Stats
Ballstriking, SG Approach, Driving Accuracy

Main proximity distance ranges: 150-200 yds

Corollary Courses
• Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
• Copperhead Course (Valspar Championship)

Field
Smaller field of only 122 golfers

Defending Champion: Justin Rose (-20)
Runner Up Last Year: Brooks Koepka (-17)

One and Done: Francesco Molinari
Alternate: Rickie Fowler

One and Done Considerations: Molinari, Rahm, Rickie, Casey

Players
Rahm: 11200: +1000 – 5th and 2nd his 2 times here, overpowers the course and tears this place up, ownership should be lower than Rose
Molinari: 9800: +1600 – Elite ballstriking, played well T2G at the PGA last week and just couldn’t putt well, good at driving accuracy, great wedge player, hits a ton of fairways, plays Par 4s really well, T10 in bogie avoidance (last 50 rounds), 3rd in proximity 150-175 yds
Casey: 9300: +2500 – T2G and ballstriking are good, won this year at Valspar, T10 in DK scoring, accurate off the tee, will probably have high ownership since his price seems to be undervalued
Grillo: 8700: +5000 – 3rd and 24th here the last 2 years, course sets up great for him and his iron play has been good, hits a lot of fairways and greens, 4th in SG putting on bentgrass even though he isn’t a good putter
Sneds: 7900: +6000 – Has been improving T2G recently and has gained strokes T2G in his last 4 events, fantastic putter and bentgrass is his best surface, plays well in the wind, too cheap for his talent level
Knox: 7400: +8000 – This clown show has burned me in the past but his stats line up this week, 3 T25s his last 3 years here, hits a lot of fairways and greens, 11th in bogie avoidance, T20 SG T2G, atrocious putter but his best surface is bentgrass
Danny Lee: 7300: +9000 – Good history here, second most SG total here over the past 5 years (behind Jordan), had a really good round last week at the PGA but then crumbled, T25 in Birdie+ %, lives in the Fort Worth area

DraftKings/Betting Notes
• Since this is an invitational with a shorter field, 6/6% on Draftkings will be higher than most weeks
• I’ll probably go back to not playing Draftkings again this week and just stick with betting since I don’t like the lower price range much