WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational – Gambling Preview 2019

TPC Southwind – Memphis, TN

Course Breakdown

7244 yd. Par 70, plays significantly longer, 7 of the Par 4s are over 450 yds, both Par 5s are reachable, most balls in the water (in play on 10 holes) of any course on tour by a substantial amount (almost 1500 more than the next which is TPC Sawgrass), back 9 is very difficult, holes 17 and 18 here see over 200 bogies or worse through the week, narrow and very difficult to hit fairways, trees, bunkers and water in play if you miss the fairway, Bermuda rough which is hard to judge distance out of but it isn’t too thick or tall, smaller than average Bermuda greens surrounded by bunkers and water, quick firm and undulating greens, hot and humid weather here could play a factor (but none in the forecast)

Tournament Notes

  • Replaces WGC: Bridgestone Invitational hosted by Firestone CC
  • Formerly used to be crappy field FedEx St. Jude Classic tournament
  • SG: Approach is historically 2.5x times more important than SG: OTT here
  • A lot of the top end players historically didn’t play this course much (besides Brooks and Dustin)

Key Stats

SG: Approach, SG: OTT, SG: T2G

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-200 yds (~50% of approach shots from this range here)

Field

64 players with top end talent, no cut

Defending Champion (FedEx St. Jude Classic): Dustin Johnson (-19)

Runner Up Last Year: Andrew Putnam (-13)

One and Done: Chez Reavie

Alternate: Billy Horschel

Players

  • Brooks: 11600: +1050 – Good history here for an event he didn’t give a shit about, played awesome last week at British Open but the putter came up short, 3rd in in DK scoring on Par 70 courses over last 50 rounds, Approach has been fantastic, crushes it off the tee, WGC’s are big money tournaments so he might actually care
  • JT: 10700: +1000 – 1st in DK scoring on Par 70 courses over last 50 rounds, approach has been fantastic lately, elite iron player
  • Cantlay: 9800: +2000 – 4th in DK pts, 5th in Birdie+ %, T10 in every significant stat category
  • Xander: 9300: +2200 – Pissed off coming off the illegal driver bullshit last week, plays awesome and wins no cut events with elite fields, long off the tee, 
  • Hideki: 8900: +2000 – 1st in Birdie+ %, 3rd in DK pts, 3rd in proximity from 150-175 yds, 5th in SG: T2G, 1st in opportunities gained over last 24 rounds within the last 3 months 
  • Bryson: 8800: +2500 – Has been playing a lot better lately besides last week, T10 SG: T2G, T10 in Birdie+%, T5 in proximity from 175-200 yds over last 50 rounds, will probably be higher owned
  • Chezzz: 7900: +5000 – 8th in SG: T2G, 2nd in proximity from 150-175 yds (1st over last 50 rounds), 2nd from 175-200 yds (over last 50 rounds),  3rd in Scrambling, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 15th in Birdie +% over last 24 rounds within the last 3 months

DraftKings/Betting Notes

No cut events especially with tiny fields are so hard to play on Draftkings, I personally won’t be playing DK at all this week.