Tour Championship – Gambling Preview 2019

East Lake Golf Club – Atlanta, GA

Tournament Notes

  • Final event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs and the PGA Tour season
  • Brand new format this year with the starting strokes for the tournament based on FedEx Cup standings. Win this tournament, win the FedEx Cup and $15 Million
  • With statistical modeling, there is over a 75% chance that JT, Cantlay, Brooks or Rory wins this tournament
  • Average winning score here is around -10, so that almost completely takes out anyone starting around -2 and E
  • Since 2012, the average finish of golfers that finish T3 here in the prior 3 playoff events is 26th, so current form matters, almost 60% of which had 0 T5s in those 3 playoff events. some not elites pop here

Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7346 yds, Donald Ross designed course with Reese Jones redesign (1994), both Par 5’s are reachable, all 4 Par 3s are difficult with 3 of them being long, fairly narrow tree lined fairways, large bunkers in play at the landing zones, rough is thick, toughest fairways to hit on tour (10% harder than tour average), very fast Bermuda greens, firmness all depends on weather conditions, wide variety of large multi-tiered greens with a lot of slope and smaller greens with a lot of back to front slope, need to hit certain spots on greens for realistic birdie chances, greenside bunkers in play on most holes with a majority of them guarding the very front of the greens, lot of prevailing winds here

Corollary Courses

Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) – Donald Ross design with some crossover success

Key Stats

SG: Approach, Ballstriking, SG: OTT

Field

Top 30 in FedEx Cup Ranking

2018 Tour Championship Champion: Tiger Woods

2018 FedEx Cup Champion: Justin Rose

One and Done: Adam Scott

Alternate: Gary Woodland

Available One and Done Picks: Ancer, Conners, Fleets, Glover, CH3, Im, Kis, Oosty, Scott, Woodland

All Players (Listed in FedEx Cup Ranking Order)

  1. JT (-10): 15500: +250 – Way too expensive with only a 2 stroke lead over Cantlay going in, won last week after stringing together a great few weeks, has never finished worst than T7 here, unbettable odds at +250 opening with only a 2 stroke lead and the better betting strategy with him is hoping he drops and live bet him, 5th in DK pts over last 50 rounds
  2. Cantlay (-8): 12400: +455 – Contrarian play from Brooks around the same price with lower projected ownership, has good recent form, fits great statistically but I’d rather have Brooks
  3. Brooks (-7): 12200: +510 – The best player in the world, actually seems to have value with his starting position vs. what his odds probably would’ve been in a standard format event, shot a -5 on Sunday last week, wins big events, sets up nicely for this course, gonna take the Brinks truck to the bank this week with 15 milllyyyyyyy
  4. Fatrick (-6): 10600: +1400 – Atrocious course history here (best finish ever in this 30 man field for him was 13th), won the first event of the playoffs 2 weeks ago, his game just doesn’t set up well for him, fuck this fat piece of shit
  5. Rory (-5): 10200: +740 – Won here before, was in final group last year, playing pretty decent, can have a fantastic round and catch up to win pretty easily, 1st in Birdie+% and opportunities gained, lowest betting odds for 72 hole score, chalk
  6. Rahm (-4): 9900: +1400 – Has had great current form lately with his worst finish since June being T11 at the US Open, 11th and 7th here the last 2 years, decent starting position to be right in it quickly
  7. Webb (-4): 9700: +2200 – Having a great year, should have a decent finish, I like him as a solid DK play
  8. Xander (-4): 9500: +2500 – Won here two years ago his rookie season and finished 7th last year, good starting position
  9. Kuch (-4): 9100: +4000 – Eh?
  10. Ancer (-4): 7100: +6600 – First time playing here, starts in a good position but could easily fall from here and I’d probably avoid him
  11. Woody (-3): 8000: +7000 – Has potential to have a good week with some value even though he hasn’t really been great since winning the US Open, his approach game seems pretty inconsistent 
  12. Finau (-3): 8800: +4000 – Last week 1st in SG: T2G, SG: Approach, 3rd in SG: OTT last week but his putting sucked, rolls in birds, plays Par 5s really well, would fit his narrative perfectly to have the best score for this tournament and not win due to scoring position 
  13. Adam Scott (-3): 8200: +3300 – Form is decent lately, 9th last week, decent long term history here and has decent value for his starting position, best I have available left for 1&D so I’ll finish the season plugging this guy in even though I hate him (cheater putter)
  14. Hideki (-3): 9300: +3300 – Shot course record -9 at the BMW twice last week (although JT beat that in the same tournament), playing very well lately 
  15. DJ (-3): 8400: +2500 – His driver has been off lately, irons haven’t been good either, hasn’t been great lately, very good history here with finishes 3,6,5 the last 3 years here, still one of the best players in the world and gives a ton of value in DK at only 8400
  16. Casey (-2): 7500: +7000 – Good iron player. Don’t really have much interest in him this week but his game maps out decent
  17. Rose (-2): 6900: +4000 – So cheap and will be highly chalky but I feel like you have to play him priced this low on DK, has awesome course history here, his putter was off last week but everything else in his game was pretty solid, could roll in a bunch of birdies to score and gain value, putts better on Bermuda, 1st in DK pts over last 50 rounds, plays long Par 4s very well, projected to be the highest owned golfer on the slate
  18. Sneds (-2): 7300: +10000 – Has success at the Wyndham over the years, which is another Donald Ross course, won here in 2012 to win the FedEx Cup 
  19. Rickie (-2): 8600: +5500 – Played pretty well last week, should be lower owned, has highest price of everyone -2 or worst starting the event
  20. Kis (-2): 6600: +11500 – 3rd here 2 years ago, his form is rounding out to be better, his irons have been really good the last month or so, hometown boy in Atlanta
  21. Leish (-1): 6300: +20000 – Really bad course history here, no interest
  22. Fleets (-1): 7700: +10000 – He’s got talent. But I don’t see a whole lot out of him lately nor expect it this week
  23. Corey Conners (-1): 6100: +26500 – 4 straight T27 or better coming into this week which for him is really solid, 3rd in SG: Approach and 1st in GIR over last 50 round, should be lower owned, doesn’t putt as well on Bentgrass
  24. Sungjae Im (-1): 5900: +22500 – Only rookie in the field, scores a ton of DK pts, had a bad first round last week but ended up 3rd in SG: Total just behind JT and Cantlay last week
  25. Chezzz (-1): 5100: +27500 – 1st in Fairways Gained, 2nd in Proximity from 200+ yds (which there will be a lot of here), T10 in SG: Approach over last 12 rounds, started off great last week and melted down on the weekend last week at the BMW, won this year, super cheap on DK
  26. Bryson (E): 5500: +22500 – Hasn’t done much lately other than making a big deal about his slow play, superior player compared to those around him, last in SG: Approach, last in Fairways Gained, 3rd last in SG: T2G, DK pts and Birdie+% over last 12 rounds, zero interest in playing the mad scientist here
  27. Oosty (E): 5700: +20000 – Only played here once in the last 5 years and obviously he WD in that, solid recent form (11,6,20,20 last 4 events), approach game was great the last few weeks, has gained almost 18 strokes on approach in his last 3 tournaments played, irons have been fantastic, 2nd in Opportunities gained, 5th in GIR over last 12 rounds
  28. CH3 (E): 5000: +32500 – His long term game rated out well for the course but I have no interest in him
  29. Glover (E): 5200: +25000 – T2G and Approach were good last week but his putting was typically shitty, although his putting has been way better this year than previous years. Played himself into this spot so he’s doing well lately
  30. Kokrak (E): 5300: +25000 – Having a great season and was the last man in to get into East Lake on the final hole last week, scores a lot, really good with long irons and plays long Par 3’s really well

DraftKings Picks

Brooks, Rory, Rahm, Webb, Finau, Rose, Conners, Woodland, Im 

DraftKings Notes

This is pretty much an entirely different format with the starting strokes, different pricing format and scoring still being the same. This will be fun this week. 

Betting Notes

Some books will also have 72 hole score without the starting strokes based on FedEx Cup but I’m not interested in that. I’d rather play the actual tournament odds that takes into account motivation to win the event, although for a player like Rory looking at the different ways to play it could be interesting.

European Tour, Korn Ferry Tour, Champions Tour

European Tour – Scandinavian Invitation

Henrik Stenson: +795 – This course is only 6900 yards and puts a premium on accuracy and ballstriking and approach. Stenny’s been on fire on approach in the last few months, no one rips the 3 wood off the tee right down the center of the fairway better than he does, best player in the field, I’ll be betting him on his own and parlaying him with Brooks to win the Tour Championship

Korn Ferry Tour – Boise Open

Viktor Hovland: +1000 – This kid’s gonna win this week and secure his PGA Tour card. I thought he was going to win last week and didn’t so now’s his time. Favorite in the field that everyone’s on, good option to try some fun doubles and exotic parlays with if the book allow is (none of my 3 books allow it)

Champions Tour – Boeing Classic

Scott McCarron: +1000 – Him and Bernhard Langer (and their cheater putters) are the kings of Sr. Tour, T4 last week, another good option to try some doubles and exotics parlays with if the book allow is (none of my 3 books allow it)