No MLB Team Should Ever Be -570 to Win a Baseball Game

Tonight the Houston Astros set a record for the highest ever betting line that Vegas has set on an MLB game at an insane -570, breaking their own record from previously this year.

Now, I understand how betting lines work. It isn’t just the actual odds for a team to win a game, but takes into account how much action will come in on each side of the bet optimizing how much Vegas and the books can make on that game regardless of the final result.  But -570 is fucking egregious when literally any team could win any night.  

The Astros are arguably the best team in baseball this year (since my Yanks don’t have starting pitching) and for the last few years Justin Verlander has been the best starting pitcher in baseball. His former team the Detroit Tigers on the other hand, are literally the worst team in baseball coming into tonight with a 37-86 record. Eeeesh. But in baseball, a shitty team could win any day even against the best teams in the league. Going into tonight, Houston had three games that they were -400 or larger favorites this season with Verlander pitching and they were 1-2 in those games. So why wouldn’t you roll the dice on 4.3:1 on an individual baseball game?

With the Astros being -570 tonight, the Tigers were real enticing on a value standpoint at +430 regardless of how lopsided this matchup was in Houston. I just couldn’t resist an MLB team with that kind of value. In no way did I expect the Tigers to pull off the upset here but I had to get in on it for a half unit.  I even told my bookie I expected to take an L here and I never talk to him beside to tell him what my bets are (you’re not supposed to be friends with your bookie, it’s just good business). 

The first few innings of this game were pretty quiet with Verlander dealing for the Stros, not allowing a hit until the 5th inning when he gave up a bomb to Ronny Rodriguez making it 1-0.  Although the Tigers were giving up some hits as early as the lead off batter in the 1st inning, they didn’t allow the Astros to score a run until Robinson Chirinos hit a homer to left tying the game at 1-1 in the 7th inning. At this point the game’s going a lot better than I expected it to but didn’t really think Detroit was getting outta here with a win.

Top of the 9th and Verlander’s still dealing out there and hasn’t given up another hit since the Rodriguez dinger in the 5th. On the second pitch of the lead off at bat, Verlander gave Detroit catcher John Hicks a fastball that he blasted to left center making it 2-1.  Three more outs for the Tigers.

Justin Verlander ended his complete game giving up only 2 hits (both HRs) and an impressive 11 strikeouts. But ultimately didn’t get the run support to win this game.

Bangggggggg. Didn’t expect this result. Just goes to prove that any team could win on any given night. Betting on baseball’s so fucked and this is exactly why no one makes money betting MLB all summer.  

Cash the biggest underdog in MLB history!! 💰

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