Sony Open – Gambling/DFS Preview 2020

Wai’alae Country Club – Honolulu, Hawaii

Course Breakdown

7044 yd. Par 70, resort course, winning score should be around -20, lowest driving accuracy course on tour last year but isn’t really a factor here at all, guys could still go real low with crappy driving accuracy, both Par 5s can easily be eagle’d by all which are the 2 easiest Par 5s on tour, 4th most eagles here of every course on tour despite only having 2 Par 5s, off the tee golfers will see tight, tree lined fairways that are firm, flat and fast, rough isn’t very high but could get thick gnarly to hit out of with bad lies, bunkers on a few fairways and water is in play on 2 holes, average sized, firm and flat Bermuda greens that are well protected by deep bunkers and the rough around the greens is a lot tougher than off the fairways

Weather

Wind in the forecast this year for the first three rounds will cause much tougher conditions than years previous

Tournament Notes

  • First event of the 2020 One and Done season!
  • First full field event of the season with a cut (Top 65 and ties starting this year with no MDF)
  • 6 of the past 7 winners (15 of last 21) played at the Tournament of Champions the year before (Russell Henley was the only one, who was also the 1st player since the 1970 to win their first time there)
  • The last 9 winners had a T6 in one of their last 3 starts before this tourney

Key Stats

SG Approach, Ballstriking, Par 4 scoring

Corollary Courses

  • El Camaleon Golf Club (Mayakoba Golf Classic)
  • Kapalua Resort Plantation Course (Sentry Tournament of Champions)
  • Sedgefield Country Club, Ross Course (Wyndham Championship)
  • PGA National (Honda Classic)
  • Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)

Field

144 Golfers, not terrible

Defending Champion: Matt Kuchar (-22)

Runner Up Last Year: Andrew Putnam (-18)

One and Done: Justin Thomas

Alternate: Collin Morikowa

One and Done Considerations: JT, Morikowa, Kisner, Kuchar

Players

JT: 12000: +510 – Winner last week at TOC, winner here in 2017, holds the course record here, by far the best in the field but again it’s not worth betting a golf winner at +500, I didn’t bet him at it last week in a 34 man field, not going to this week in a full one

Morikowa: 10300: +1600 – 3rd in SG Ballstriking last week on his first time playing the TOC last week, drives the ball well, great at ballstriking and approach, putt crappy to start last week but improved through the week, seems way to expensive to play on Draftkings

Kuch: 9900: +2200 – 4 T5s here in the last 6 years including last year’s win, T14 last week at TOC

Niemann: 9400: odds – Good in the wind, T5 last week at TOC, good with his irons

CH3: 9100: +3500 – Statistically has the best course history here, 9 T10s in 18 trips here, only one missed cut ever here (2011), 9 made cuts here, he ain’t winning but not a bad DK play with a higher floor

Kis: 8700: +4000 – Will be very popular this week, T14 at TOC last week, good course history, was decent on approach and off the tee last week, really good around the greens last week (which doesn’t really matter here), has crossover success at corollary courses

Poston: 8100: +5000 – Irons have been pretty good, great T2G, T11 last week at TOC, T20 here last year, plays Par 4s really well

Munoz: 7900: +6000 – T17 at TOC last week, T10 here last year, makes a lot of birdies, decent DK play at his price

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • I don’t really like the whole low price range on DK, probably won’t be playing at all this week
  • Really like a handful of matchup bets this week
  • I think JT wins this week but that’s unbettable, only outright bet I like is a stab at Kisner at +4000

Bets

($13) Kevin Kisner: WIN +4000 (all of my outright bets are to win around $500)

Matchups (.5 unit each, it’s still early in the season):

Justin Thomas vs. Patrick Reed -190

Collin Morikowa +1.5 vs. Hideki Matsuyama -135

Sebastian Munoz vs. Brian Harman -120

Kevin Kisner +1.5 vs. Abraham Ancer -105

Joaquin Niemann +1.5 vs. Sungjae Im -120

DraftKings Lineups

None

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