The American Express – Gambling/DFS Preview 2020

PGA West Stadium Course – La Quinta, CA

PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course – La Quinta, CA

La Quinta Country Club – La Quinta, CA

Course Breakdowns

PGA West Stadium Course (All Rounds)

Par 72, 7113 yds, Pete Dye designed, toughest of the three courses but still pretty easy compared to tour average, Par 5s are much longer and harder than the other two courses, average fairways that get narrow at the landing areas, bunkers and a lot of water, rough is easy, small greens and huge bunkers (including the huge 20 ft deep bunker), overseeded Bermuda greens

PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course (Rounds 1-3)

Par 72, 7204 yds, second easiest course on tour (behind La Quinta), all the Par 5s are reachable, average to large fairways with lots of bunkers and water, rough isn’t very thick, undulating multi-tiered large greens, overseeded Bermuda greens

La Quinta Country Club (Rounds 1-3)

Par 72, 7060 yds, easiest course on tour, tree lined average sized fairways, average greens with trouble around them, overseeded Bermuda greens

Tournament Notes

  • Formerly known as the Desert Classic, CareerBuilder Challenge and Bob Hope Classic
  • 54 hole cut after the field has played all 3 courses, standard T65 and ties
  • Pro-Am format similar to AT&T Pebble Beach
  • Course setup rounds 1-3 easier since normal people have to play with the pros
  • Rounds are gonna take forever since its a Pro-Am
  • This course rotation started four years ago
  • 9 of the last 10 winners here played in one of the two Hawaii events before their win
  • 6 of the last 7 winners played this event before
  • 7 of the last 8 winners had a T15 in one of their last 7 starts before this event
  • At Stadium Course the last 3 years, past 3 winners have been T10 in proximity gained from 75-100 yds for that week, so its a wedgefest
  • Birdiefest, the winner of this event has never been worse than -20
  • Longer players won’t hit drivers as often here
  • Historical advantage of starting at La Quinta first but this is partially cause the best players start here since then they’re on TV at the Stadium Course on Saturday
  • TV broadcast of this event is fucking awful, arguably worse than than Pebble Beach with the Stadium Course being the only one with Shotlink and TV cameras

Key Stats

SG Approach, SG OTT, Birdie+ %

Main proximity distance range on approach: 125-175 yds

Field

156 players, huge shitty field (lot of good players in Abu Dhabi this week)

Defending Champion: Adam Long (-26)

Runner Up Last Year: Adam Hadwin, Phil Mickelson (-25)

One and Done: Sungjae Im

Alternate: Brian Harman

One and Done Considerations: Im, An, Harman

Players

Sungjae Im: 11000: +1300 – T10 (over last 12 rounds) in SG OTT, Approach, Par 4 scoring (3rd in last 24 rounds), Birdie+ % (2nd over past 24 rounds), 12th here in his debut last year

Casey: 10700: +2200 – Played at the TOC and was excellent T2G and ballstriking but sucked at putting, good iron and wedge player

Benny An: 10300: +2200 – Good birdie maker, good Par 4 efficiency (400-450 yds), good on approach from 150-175 yds

Harman: 8600: +3300 – Really good wedge player,  good Par 4 efficiency (400-450 yds), T20 in SG Par 5, 6th in SG T2G (last 50 rounds), MC,11,3,20 the last 4 years here, could get a decent amount of DK pts, played well last week at the Sony T32

Knox: 8100: +5500 – T32 or better in his last 5 events, good at T2G and Approach, T32 last week at the Sony, 18th and 29th last 2 times here

Vaughn Taylor: 7900: +5000 – 12th last week at the Sony and 10th and 2nd his 2 events prior to that, decent course history, solid SG across the board last week, really good wedge game, 4th in DK pts (last 50 rounds), 5th in proximity from 125-150 yds, will be chalky on DK

Aaron Wise: 7300: +8800 – Has kind of sucked lately and MC’d on the number last week at the Sony but his T2G and Approach were really good, T2G has been good recently, T10 in Birdie+% (last 50 pts), crushes Par 5s, cheap DK flyer

Cameron Tringale: 7100: +9000 – Sucks but rolls in birdies, in the past 36 rounds: 3rd in proximity from 75-100 yds, 8th in proximity from 100-125 yds, 10th in Par 4s scoring, 12th in SG Approach, 27th in Par 3 scoring, 12th in Birdie +%

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • I’m going to start doing each ways every outright bet (bet the same amount on the outright win and the T5 after hitting 2 T5s in a row to start the season
  • With 54 hole cut, can be more aggressive on DFS with more riskier plays since cut has less effect
  • Can look for value on first round leader bets with targeting guys on the easy courses on Thursday
  • I don’t like any head to head matchups this week

Bets

($10) Vaughn Taylor: WIN +5000

($10) Russell Knox: WIN +5500

($6) Aaron Wise: WIN +8800

($6) Cameron Tringale: WIN +9000

($10) Vaughn Taylor: T5 +1000

($10) Russell Knox: T5 +1000

($6) Aaron Wise: T5 +1600

($6) Cameron Tringale: T5 +2000

(All wins are to win $500 (rounded to closest dollar), the T5 is the same amount as the risk for the outright bet)

DraftKings Lineups

Not playing DK in a field with all of these scrubs this week

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