Farmers Insurance Open – Gambling/DFS Preview 2020

Torrey Pines Golf Course – San Diego, CA

Course Breakdown

South Course (All rounds): 7698 yd. Par 72, one of the longest and most difficult courses on tour, plays 3-4 strokes more difficult on average than the North course, bombers course, 6 of the Par 4s are longer than 450 yds, Par 5s are lengthy averaging 590yds so most golfers won’t be able to reach all the greens in 2, OTT golfers will see narrow tree lined fairways with a lot of bunkers, only about 50% of fairways are hit on average here every year, rough is pretty thick and gnarly, lot of holes have a slight dogleg right which favors rightys that hit a cut OTT, average to small sized POA greens,  multitiered with undulation and are very quick, lot of which are guarded in the front by large bunkers and thick, tall rough

North Course (Only rounds 1 or 2): 7258 yd. Par 72, no player has shot their round over par here and won since 1983, all Par 5s are reachable by most golfers and there is a drivable Par 4 (which need to be scored on to make the cut), OTT golfers will see average sized fairways with thickish rough with some bunkers and trees, but a lot less than the South course, larger bent grass greens with bunkers guarding them, no shot tracker

Both: Kikuya grass on the fairways and rough, across both courses: 7 of the 8 Par 3s are longer than 200 yds, 6 or 7 long Par 4s of 400-450 yds each round, weather could play a large factor since it is near the ocean and affected by trade winds

Tournament Notes

  • 9 of the last 11 winners here had a previous T10 at this event (beside Rahm and Scott Stallings)
  • Besides Rose last year who started on the North Course, 8 of the last 9 winners played the South Course on Thursday
  • No winner has ever shot over par on the North Course since 1983
  • There has only been 2 shitty winners here in like the last 16 years: Scott Stallings (the year he got busted for PEDs) in 2014 and Ben Crane in 2010
  • 9 of the last 14 winners have finished inside the top 25 in driving distance for the year (Rose last year was just outside of that at T28)
  • Around 40% of winners here have had a connection to California (growing up here, living here or going to school here), mainly due to the POA greens
  • Tony Finau, Justin Rose, Jason Day, JB Holmes and Gary Woodland have most SG: Total over last 5 years here

Key Stats

SG OTT, Driving Distance, SG T2G, Ballstriking, Par 5 Scoring, SG: Around the Green

Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yds, 200+ yds

Field

First strong field event of the year

Defending Champion: Justin Rose (-21)

Runner Up Last Year: Adam Scott (-19)

One and Done: Rory McIlroy

Alternate: Tony Finau

One and Done Considerations: Rory, Finau, Rahm, Woodland, Hideki

Players

Rory: 11600: +590 – Can overtake Brooks as the World #1 if he wins this week, best player in the field, bomber, crushes it off the tee and could just overpower this course, T5 in his debut here last year, I wouldn’t bet him at these odds since that’s just not a long term profitable strategy, I think he wins this week

Hideki: 9900: +1600 – Has been playing really solid lately (no worse than T16 in last 5 starts), good off the tee, decent pricing on DK, Decent history here with 3,12,33 finishes here the last 3 years (had really good Sunday round last year), great ballstriking, good short game

Woody: 9500: +2200 – Recent form good with last 4 finishes: 7,7,5,3, has had success here before (10/10 made cuts with 4 T20s his last 4 times here), rates out very well on the long Par 4s and long Par 3s, crushes Par 5s, crushes the driver, great with long irons, course suits him well

Finau: 9300: +2500 – Maps out great for this course, bomber, last 5 years here: 13,6,4,18,24, long and accurate with the driver, probably won’t win but could come close, really good in proximity from 175-200 yds, will be very chalky as usual on DK

Sneds: 8400: +4500 – Great history here event though his stats don’t really map out to the course that great: 7 T10s including 2 wins and 2 runner ups (T62 last year), 11/13 made cuts here

Leish: 8300: +4500 – 9/11 made cuts here, T20s 3 of the past 4 years, T10 in 4 of the past 8, 7 T30s in the past 11, great with long irons, hits it long enough off the tee, good in proximity from 200+ yds, Kikuya grass is on most Australian courses which he’s used to, he’s said this is one of his favorite courses on tour, a good portion of the holes bend left to right which favor a cut off the tee which is his go to shot. The firm greens with many tucked pin locations require a high ball flight with approach shots which Leish has as well

Ryan Palmer: 8000: +5500 – Good recent form with 4,17,10,12 his last 4 events, good history with T13 and T2 the last 2 years here

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • Stack guys on the North course for Showdown slates on Draftkings and target North course golfers for first round leader bets, since its the easier course

Bets

I don’t love any of the betting numbers in this field in an event that mostly elite players win. I’ll be watching more for live plays after round 1 and 2, since I think Rory most likely wins and no way I’m betting him at +590

DraftKings Lineups

None, I don’t particularly like the cheap guys this week.

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