Waste Management Phoenix Open – Gambling/DFS Preview 2020

TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) – Phoenix, AZ
“The Greatest Show on Grass”

Course Breakdown

7266 yd. Par 71, only 3 water hazards on the course in play on 6-7 holes, all 3 Par 5s are reachable in 2 by a majority of golfers, off the tee golfers will see narrow landing areas with bunkers placed strategically, lot of roll out from tee shots, large misses could land in desert vegetation, rough around the fairways isn’t too penal and golfers should still be able to hit good approach shots, with elevation drives and approaches will go farther, Bermuda grass, bunkers guarding most greens are relatively flat, firm and fast in a large range of sizes, course has longest driving distance average on tour, scrambling and GIR % are higher than tour average where fairways gained is lower than tour average (so missing the fairways doesn’t matter much)

Tournament Notes

  • The biggest party in golf, crowd is a big factor
  • My favorite tournament outside of majors
  • Of the last 9 winners here, 8 of them had a T5 in one of their previous 5 events
  • A shitty finish at the Farmers hasn’t really been too detrimental to the top of the leaderboard here historically the next week
  • 17 of the last 24 players in the last 3 years that finished T5, played Torrey the week before, 7 of them had MC’d at Torrey, 6 had made cut but finished outside T30 at Torrey, none finished T10 or better at Torrey
  • Since 2000, only 8 54 hole leaders went on to win and only 2 since 2009 (Phil in 2013 and Rickie last year)

Key Stats

SG T2G, SG OTT, SG Approach, SG ATG, Par 5 scoring, Par 4 scoring (450-500 yds, where 7 Par 4s are)

Field

132 golfers with a good amount of stars even with the studs playing in Saudi Arabia this week on the European Tour

Defending Champion: Rickie Fowler (-17)
Runner Up Last Year: Branden Grace (-15)

One and Done: Hideki Matsuyama
Alternate: Jon Rahm

One and Done Considerations: Hideki, Rickie, Rahm

Players

Hideki: 10100: +1400 – Course history: 15 (lost like 4 strokes putting), WD (Injury, led field T2G before that),1,1,2,4, 2nd in historical GIR here, worst SG: Ballstriking here for him as been +9, the crowds can’t scare a robot and he’s the course horse
Sneds: 8900: +3300 – T3 and T12 the last two weeks, 11/12 made cuts here, has been hitting irons very well, 1st in Par 4 efficiency 450-500 yds, 2nd in SG: Par 4 in last 50 rounds
Im: 8800: +3000 – 7th here last year, 2nd in Birdie+ % in last 50 rounds, plays Par 4s very well
Berger: 7800: +7000 – Of his 4 made cuts here he has 3 T11s, so its a good shot if he makes the cut he’ll do well, hasn’t played bad this year
Knox: 7700: +8000 – 2 T15s and 2 MCs here in 4 starts, really good with his irons (6th in SG Approach over last 12 rounds and gained on approach in 19 of past 21 events), played well last week, has made 8 consecutive cuts, gained an average of +1.6 SG OTT here over his 4 starts
Benny An: 7600: +6000 – Has been excellent T2G but sucks at putting…but here he’s actually gained strokes putting on 9 of his 12 rounds here, T23 or better last 3 years here, 54 hole leader here 3 years ago, lot of value at his price on Draftkings

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • After hitting the winner and another T5 last week and stupidly not having even a dollar on it, I’m back to betting this week. Every player I listed with an outright to win $500 and T5 on everyone (besides maybe Hideki) for the same amount as the risk on the outright
  • Bonus, I would do a DJ (Euro Tour)/Hideki double parlay if my book offered it, but it doesn’t
  • No Draftkings lineups this week, it’ll be rare that I play DFS this year, focusing much more on the gambling side

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