Arnold Palmer Invitational – Gambling/DFS Preview 2020

Bay Hill Club and Lodge – Orlando, FL

Course Breakdown

7454 yds, Par 72, plays longer than the yardage, good mix of holes where bombers will have an advantage and others where accuracy will be more of an advantage with a 3 wood or less than driver, Par 5s are reachable in 2 by a lot of golfers but bombers will obviously have an advantage, easy to hit wide tree lined fairways with strategically placed bunkers on almost every tee shot, 8 water traps that affect 10 of the holes, 84 bunkers, lot of doglegs, thick rough, trimmed rough around hazards which causes more trouble, lot of slopes and undulation on the fairways, guys will have to lay up so average drives are 6 yards shorter than tour average (277 vs. 283 yds) and driving accuracy is 66% vs. tour average of 61%, over 33% of approach shots come from beyond 200 yds, average GIR, a bit larger than average greens, very difficult course especially when wind picks up which plays a pretty big factor, firm Bermuda greens and fairways, greens are FAST with slopes and runoff areas especially on the front of the greens

Tournament Notes

  • SG Approach is way more influential than ATG and OTT this week (2.7x more than SG: OTT and 4.2x more than SG: ATG, 2x more than SG: OTT and 2.5x more than SG: ATG for T5)
  • Putting could be a little more influential here than usual but not enough for me to want to weigh as much as a key stat
  • Internationals have won this event the last 4 years and all players T5 or better last year were internationals

Key Stats

SG Approach, Ballstriking, Par 5 scoring

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yds (over 33%)

Corollary Courses

Torrey Pines (Farmers Insurance Open) – Marc Leishman and Jason Day won both events in the last 5 years

Field

121 Player Elite Field

Defending Champion: Francesco Molinari (-12)
Runner Up Last Year: Matthew Fitzpatrick (-10)

One and Done: Bryson DeChambeau
Alternate: Xander Schauffele

One and Done Considerations: Rory, Bryson, Xander, Fleetwood

Players

Rory: 11800: +510 – The perfect fit for this course statistically, won here two years ago on a huge putting performance (+9 SG putting on Sunday), his betting number isn’t something I could back any week, 8 T5s including 2 wins in his last 10 events

Bryson: 10400: +1400 – Gained 19.3 SG T2G and 5.8 SG on Approach in his last 2 events, good at long irons and has improved on ballstriking his last few events, bomber now that he’s jacked, 7th SG: T2G, 13th on proximity from 200+ yds, T10 in Par 5s Gained, T20 in Par 4s Gained, T25 in Bogie avoidance, T15 in GIR (last 50 rounds), 2nd here 2 years ago and T46 last year

Xander: 10000: +1800 – Stats all line up, 1st in SG: Approach and 1st in proximity from 200+ yds, T10 in Par 5s Gained, Par 4s Gained and Par 3s Gained (200-225 yds) over last 24 rounds, good with long irons, good in GIR, 1st in ballstriking in Mexico and gained +10.2 SG on Approach, has been putting lousy lately

Stenny: 8800: +3500 – Good course history, 2nd in SG: Approach, 3rd in Bogie avoidance in last 50 rounds, good with his long irons, good in the wind

Hatton: 8100: +4500 – 6th place in Mexico coming off wrist injury where he gained in all 4 SG categories and was T1 in SG: T2G at +10.4, good in the wind, has made cut all 3 times here


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