Farmers Insurance Open – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

Torrey Pines Golf Course – San Diego, CA

Course Breakdown

South Course (All rounds): 7700 yds. Par 72, one of the longest and most difficult courses on tour, plays 3-4 strokes more difficult on average than the North course, bombers course, 6 of the Par 4s are longer than 450 yds, Par 5s are lengthy averaging 590yds so most golfers won’t be able to reach all the greens in 2, OTT golfers will see narrow tree lined fairways with a lot of bunkers, only about 50% of fairways are hit on average here every year, rough is pretty thick and gnarly, lot of holes have a slight dogleg right which favors rightys that hit a cut OTT, average to small sized POA greens,  multitiered with undulation and are very quick, lot of which are guarded in the front by large bunkers and thick, tall rough, the course is currently going through renovations to host the US Open later this year so it should be a bit tougher this year vs. previous years (but not as tough as the US Open will be)

North Course (Only rounds 1 or 2): 7258 yds. Par 72, no player has shot their round over par here and won since 1983, all Par 5s are reachable by most golfers and there is a drivable Par 4 (which need to be scored on to make the cut), OTT golfers will see average sized fairways with thickish rough with some bunkers and trees, but a lot less than the South course, larger bent grass greens with bunkers guarding them, no shot tracker

Both: Kikuya grass on the fairways and rough, across both courses: 7 of the 8 Par 3s are longer than 200 yds, 6 or 7 long Par 4s of 400-450 yds each round, weather could play a large factor since it is near the ocean and affected by trade winds

Tournament Notes

  • 10 of the last 12 winners here had a previous T10 at this event (beside Rahm and Scott Stallings)
  • 6 of the last 7 winners made at least one start in the calendar year prior to their win
  • Besides Leishman and Rose the last two years who started on the North Course, 8 of the last 10 winners played the South Course on Thursday
  • No winner has ever shot over par on the North Course since 1983
  • There has only been 2 shitty winners here in like the last 16 years: Scott Stallings (the year he got busted for PEDs) in 2014 and Ben Crane in 2010
  • Around 40% of winners here have had a connection to California (growing up here, living here or going to school here), mainly due to the POA greens
  • 9 of the last 15 winners have finished inside the top 25 in driving distance for the year (Rose was just outside of that at T28)

Key Stats

SG: Approach, SG: OTT, SG: ARG (Around the Green), Driving Distance

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yds.


Best field of the year so far

Defending Champion: Marc Leishman (-15)

Runner Up Last Year: Jon Rahm (-14)

One and Done: Jon Rahm

Alternate: Tony Finau

One and Done Considerations: Rahm, Finau, Rory


Rahm: 11300: +650 – WD last week with an injury that he “got from the gym”…or he just didn’t want to play the shitty American Express, 2,T5,T29,win here the last 4 years, 1st in SG: Total, 1st in SG: T2G, 3rd in Ballstriking, 2nd in SG: OTT, 6th in SG: ARG, 10th in SG: Short Game, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Par 5 scoring, 5th in Birdie+ %, 9th in proximity 200+ yds, 2nd in DK pts, 7th in SG: Putting on POA greens

Finau: 10700: +1800 – Never wins so I wouldn’t bet him outright, was 54 hole leader last week before choking as usual on Sunday, most strokes gained here over the last 5 years: T6,T13,T6,T4,T18, 4th in SG: Total, 13th in SG: T2G, 15th in Ballstriking, 18th in SG: OTT, 6th in DK pts, 3rd in Par 5 scoring, 7th in driving distance, 7th in Par 4 scoring, 4th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 13th in Birdie+ %, 14th in proximity 200+ yds

English: 9800: +2200 – Has 2 T10s here and one T20, 3rd in SG: Total, 11th in SG: T2G, 2nd in Birdie+ %, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 7th in Par 5 scoring, 4th in SG: ARG, 4th in proximity 200+ yds, 2nd in short game, 4th in putting, 4th in DK pts

Bubba: 8800: +4000 – Won here in 2011 and his worst finish here since then was T23 (hasn’t played here much), 1st in ballstriking, 3rd in SG: OTT, 6th in SG: T2G, 14th in Par 5 scoring, 16th in driving distance

Palmer: 8400: +5000 – Pretty good course history here with T21,T13,T2 the last 3 years here, 16th in SG: T2G, 10th in approach, 7th in DK pts, 7th in Par 5 scoring, 10th in Birdie+ %, 13th in proximity 200+ yds

Burns: 7700: +8000 – 10th in SG: Total, 5th in SG: OTT, 12th in ballstriking, 3rd in driving distance, 15th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 22nd in Par 4 scoring, 22nd in proximity 200+ yds, 15th in Birdie+%, 10th in DK pts, 13th in putting

HV3: 7000: +15000 – Doesn’t have a great history here but pops stat wise, 2nd in SG: T2G, 4th in approach, 8th in ballstriking, 9th in Par 4 scoring, 11th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 8th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 10th in proximity 200+ yds, 17th in SG: ARG

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • Stack guys on the North course for Showdown slates on Draftkings and target North course golfers for first round leader bets, since its the easier course
  • Look to live bet guys that start on the South course after round 1 as they should be a few strokes back from the guys that start on the North course and you’ll be able to get nicer odds vs. pre-tournament

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