Arnold Palmer Invitational – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

Bay Hill Club and Lodge – Orlando, FL

Course Breakdown

7454 yds, Par 72, plays longer than the yardage, good mix of holes where bombers will have an advantage and others where accuracy will be more of an advantage with a 3 wood or less than driver, all four of the Par 3s are between 200-225yds, Par 5s are reachable in 2 by a lot of golfers but bombers will obviously have an advantage, easy to hit wide tree lined fairways with strategically placed bunkers on almost every tee shot, 8 water traps that affect 10 of the holes, 84 bunkers, lot of doglegs, thick rough, trimmed rough around hazards which causes more trouble, lot of slopes and undulation on the fairways, guys will have to lay up so average drives are 6 yards shorter than tour average (277 vs. 283 yds) and driving accuracy is 66% vs. tour average of 61%, over 33% of approach shots come from beyond 200 yds (most of any course on tour), average GIR, a bit larger than average greens, very difficult course especially when wind picks up which plays a pretty big factor, firm Bermuda greens and fairways, greens are FAST with slopes and runoff areas especially on the front of the greens, wind highly effects how this course plays and makes it much more difficult

Tournament Notes

  • SG Approach is way more influential than ATG and OTT this week (2.7x more than SG: OTT and 4.2x more than SG: ATG, 2x more than SG: OTT and 2.5x more than SG: ATG for T5)
  • Putting could be a little more influential here than usual but not enough for me to want to weigh as much as a key stat
  • Internationals have won this event the last 5 years and 10/13 players who finished T5 or better in the last two years were internationals
  • I did pretty good on this event last year with the winner and 3 total T5s in my 5 picks
  • In 4 of the last 6 years, the winner has shot better than -10 on the Par 5s for the week

Key Stats

SG Approach, Ballstriking, Par 5 scoring

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yds (over 33%)

Corollary Courses

  • Torrey Pines (Farmers Insurance Open) – Marc Leishman and Jason Day won both events in the last 5 years
  • Conway Farms Golf Club (BMW Championship) – Marc Leishman and Jason Day both won both events on years when the BMW was held at Conway Farms
  • Wentworth Club (BMW PGA Championship – European Tour) – Hatton, Molinari and Rory won there recently who all won here the last three years

Field

Pretty good field, but not as good as most years between the WGC and Players

Defending Champion: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)

Runner Up Last Year: Marc Leishman (-3)

One and Done: Tyrrell Hatton

Alternate: Sam Burns

One and Done Considerations: Hatton, Rory

Players

Tyrrell Hatton: 10000: +1800 – Defending champ and T4 here in 2017, 8th in approach, 1st in proximity over 200 yds, 4th in opportunities gained, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, has at worst finished T23 in every event he’s played since November 

Matthew Fitzpatrick: 9800: +2200 – Recently won the European Tour season championship, played really well in both US events so far this year (T11,T5), T9,2,MC,T13,T27 the last five years here, good in the wind, 24th in approach, 7th in Par 4 scoring, 14th in Par 3 scoring (200-225 yds) 

Will Zalatoris: 8600: +5000 – 3rd in approach, 2nd in Par 5 scoring, 13th in proximity over 200 yds (3rd over 36 rounds), 18th in driving distance, 1st in Par 3 scoring (200-225 yds)

Sam Burns: 8400: +4000 – Made the cut here the past 3 years, 3rd at the Genesis two weeks ago, 11th in approach, 6th in Par 5 scoring, 1st in opportunities gained, 19th in driving distance (10th over 36 rounds), 24th in proximity over 200 yds in last 36 rounds, 5th in Par 4 scoring (3rd over 36 rounds), 8th in putting, 21st in short game

Cameron Tringale: 7700: +5500 – Has been playing pretty well this year, 4th in approach, 9th in Par 5 scoring, 12th in proximity over 200 yds, 11th in opportunities gained, 27th in Par 4 scoring, 25th in Par 3 scoring (200-225 yds) in last 36 rounds

Note: All main stats for this tournament I used more recent form (last 24 rounds), most weeks I use last 50 rounds but looking at more of a mid range field rather than the stars and scrubs, I wanted more recent stats to get players to get more recent form and to include more European Tour players that have recently played on the PGA


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