The Masters – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

Augusta National Golf Club – Augusta, GA
“A tradition unlike any other”

Course Breakdown

Par 72, 7435 yds (plays a bit longer), avg. 65 sq. ft. firm and FAST multi-tiered bent grass greens with a ton of undulation, lush fairways with a lot of undulation which leads to the course playing longer than it is, 41 bunkers, 6 water hazards, rye grass, almost no rough, soft pine straw that you could hit out of as long as you don’t have a tree in the way, 6 of the Par 4s are over 450 yds, 13/14 par 4’s: you’re hitting driver, lots of changes in elevation on the course, experience here matters, first timers don’t win here, bombers have an advantage, right to left draw ball flight works best here (comes naturally for leftys, Spieth draws the ball well also). Easy to hit fairways (~69%), hard to hit greens vs. tour average (~61%),  greens are above average in size but that is misleading since most greens slope heavily from back to front with difficult landing areas, Augusta has aerated greens and some fairways with a ton of drainage on the course, rain doesn’t effect it and isn’t much of a factor here like it usually is on other courses on tour

Tournament Notes

  • Course history affects play at Augusta more than any other course on tour
  • Players to lead the Masters in SG: Approach the last 6 years have finished 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 1st
  • No winner has come from outside 50:1 odds in the last 8 years
  • Since 2012, Bubba (#18 in the OWGR that year) was the lowest ranked player to win The Masters. Even Danny Willett who was 100:1 in 2016 when he won, was ranked 12th in the World
  • Except for Patrick Reed in 2018, the past 23 champions made the cut at The Masters the previous year
  • Last 8 Masters, the winner has had a win or 2 Top 5s in their five events leading up to Augusta
  • The last 9 winners had at least two T15 finishes in their three tournaments leading into The Masters. This year that fits: Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, Sergio Garcia, Brian Harman, Victor Perez, Tommy Fleetwood, Paul Casey, Jason Kokrak, Corey Conners, Matt Kuchar and Matthew Fitzpatrick
  • No winner has repeated since Tiger in 2002 (along with Nick Faldo and Jack)
  • Jack was oldest player to ever win the Masters, at 46 years old
  • Last 21 Masters winners have made the cut the previous year (since Tiger in 1997)
  • The last time a first timer won the Masters was in 1979 (Fuzzy Zoeller)
  • The last 8 winners gained minimum of 13.4 strokes T2G in their two prior events leading up to their victory at Augusta
  • 7 of the last 9 winners were inside the Top 7 in SG: T2G leading up to the Masters

Key Stats

SG: Approach, SG: T2G, SG: OTT

Main proximity distance range: 175-200 yds (but a lot of elevation changes here make that not as accurate as other courses)

Corollary Courses

  • Emirates Golf Club (Omega Dubai Desert Challenge) – Danny Willett and Sergio won this and the Masters in the same year
  • Riviera CC (Genesis Open)
  • Quail Hallow Club (Wells Fargo Championship)
  • Correlated courses are not as much of a factor that I’ll be looking at with so much course history at Augusta

Field

88 players

Smallest field for a major and you could cut out a good 20-30 players (Sr. past champs etc.) that just aren’t gonna win – It doesn’t matter that Bernhard Langer is the #1 Sr. in the world…he’s not winning the fucking Masters

Cut: Top 50 and ties (no longer anyone within 10 strokes of the lead)

Defending Champion: Dustin Johnson (-20)

Runner Up Last Year: Cam Smith, Sungjae Im (-15)

One and Done: Jordan Spieth

Alternate: Bryson DeChambeau

One and Done Considerations: Spieth, DJ, Rahm, Bryson

Players

Jon Rahm: 11000: +1200 – T7,T9,4,T27 the last 4 years here, 7th in SG: OTT, 10th in approach, 4th in SG: T2G, 4th in ballstriking, 13th in Par 5 scoring, 28th in Par 4 scoring, 21st in driving distance, 26th in SG: ARG, 34th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 24th in proximity 175-200 yds, 22nd in DK pts

Bryson DeChambeau: 10800: +1100 – 1st in SG: OTT, 1st in SG: T2G, 1st in ballstriking, 1st in driving distance, 1st in Par 5 scoring, 12th in approach, 10th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 6th in proximity 175-200 yds, 33rd in SG: ARG, 21st in short game, 2nd in DK pts, 11th in eagles gained

Collin Morikawa: 9600: +2800 – 1st in approach, 1st Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 1st in proximity 175-200 yds, 2nd in SG: T2G, 2nd in ballstriking, 22nd in SG: OTT, 20th in DK pts

Jordan Spieth: 9400: +1200 – Coming off his first win in years last week at the Valero Texas Open, winner in 2014, 3rd in SG: Total here over the last 5 year (35.87), last 5 years here: T46,T21,3,T11,T2, 8th in approach, 28th in SG: T2G, 28th in ballstriking, 12th in Par 5 scoring, 27th in Par 4 scoring, 31st in proximity 175-200 yds, 8th in eagles, 30th in SG: ARG, 15th in short game, 17th in putting, 12th in DK pts

Victor Hovland: 8700: +3300 – 3rd in SG: OTT, 10th in SG: T2G, 6th in ballstriking, 18th in approach, 21st in Par 5 scoring, 11th in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 10th in proximity 175-200 yds, 26th in driving distance, 8th in DK pts

Sergio Garcia: 7900: +5000 – Won here in 2017, has been playing great this season, 4th in SG: OTT, 2nd in Par 5 scoring, 36th in approach, 15th in driving distance, 3rd in eagles

Joaquin Niemann: 7400: +6600 – 9th in SG: OTT, 22nd in approach, 27th in Par 5 scoring, 31st in Par 4 scoring, 6th in driving distance 

Max Homa: 7100: +10000 – 7th in approach, 3rd in Par 5 scoring, 25th in Par 4 scoring,  21st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 36th in SG: OTT, 32nd in driving distance, 7th in proximity 175-200 yds, 14th in short game, 24th in eagles

Corey Conners: 6900: +5500 – Great DK play at his price, 3rd in approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 3rd in Par 5 scoring, 13th in Par 4 scoring, 29th in proximity 175-200 yds, 1st in eagles

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • May want to leave salary cap on the table
  • Need to get 6/6 in the cut at a minimum to cash, need to hit 6 T10s to win big and the winner
  • Making cuts here should not be a factor in lineup construction and will almost play closer to a no cut event on DK
  • Need scoring points as well as placing points

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