Valspar Championship – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

Copperhead Course (Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club) – Tampa, FL

Course Breakdown

7340 yd. Par 71, 5 Par 3s and 4 Par 5s, typically top 5 most difficult course on tour, deceptively long, typically windy event (average ~15 mph), plotters course, overseeded Bermuda grass throughout, less than driver course on a majority of holes, 4 of the Par 3s are over 200 yds, all the Par 5s are longer than 550 yards, 7 of the Par 4s are between 400-450 yds, average fairways to hit (~62%), severe dog legs, tight tree lined fairways which get extremely narrow the farther from the tee box especially around the 300 yd. mark so a lot of golfers will go less than driver on a majority of greens and the average driving distance is in the lowest 6 on Tour, lot of changes in elevation, 74 bunkers, 8 water hazards, harder than average greens to hit (~62%), firm smaller greens with average speeds with lots of back to front slopes, lowest birdie+ % of any course on tour, 2nd most 3 putts inside 5 feet since 2011 (behind Riviera)

Tournament Notes

  • The Snake Pit (holes 16-18) is one of the hardest 3 hole stretches on tour with 16 as one of the top 10 hardest holes on tour, no winner has ever played it better than even par (Paul Casey two years ago was +1 on the Snake Pit for the week)
  • 12 of the last 13 winners here had a T10 that season leading up to their victory
  • This tournament was cancelled last year due to COVID
  • Cut line has not been under par since 2003

Key Stats

SG Approach, Ballstriking, Par 3 Scoring, Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yds,

Main proximity distance ranges: 175-200 yds

Field

156 Golfers – Much better field than when this tournament used to be held in early March

Defending Champion (2019): Paul Casey (-8)

Runner Up (2019): Louis Oosthuizen, Jason Kokrak (-7)

One and Done: Paul Casey

Alternate: Jason Kokrak

One and Done Considerations: Paul Casey, Corey Conners, Jason Kokrak

Players

Paul Casey: 10000: +2000 – Back to back winner here the last two times this tournament was held, 16th in SG: T2G, 16th in approach, 16th in ballstriking, 36th in DK pts

Corey Conners: 9600: +1800 – 1st in ballstriking, 5th in approach, 4th in SG: T2G, 4th in SG: OTT, 1st in good drives, 10th in opportunities gained, 3rd in fairways gained, 11th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 24th in proximity 175-200 yds, 3rd in Par 5 scoring, 3rd in DK pts

Jason Kokrak: 8700: +2800 –  T2,T8,T58,MC,T7 last 5 years here, has 3 straight T10s in his three tournaments in Florida this season, 19th in SG: T2G, 20th in ballstriking, 13th in SG: OTT, 10th in short game, 34th in approach, 5th in putting, 14th in DK pts

Keegan Bradley: 7900: +7000 – This was the place where “going full Keegan” happened where he went from first round leader to missing the cut, 3rd in approach, 3rd in SG: T2G, 4th in ballstriking, 21st in SG: OTT, 24th in SG: ARG, 10th in Par 5 scoring, 10th in good drives, 7th in opportunities gained, 8th in fairways gained, 9th in proximity 175-200 yds, 10th in proximity 150-175 yds, 57th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 22nd in DK pts

Doug Ghim: 7300: +10000 – 8th in SG: T2G, 8th in approach, 15th in ballstriking, 22nd in SG: ARG, 18th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 12th in good drives, 18th in opportunities gained, 18th in fairways gained, 1st in proximity 175-200 yds, 22nd in proximity 150-175 yds, 55th in Par 5 scoring, 20th in DK pts

Matthew NeSmith: 7100: odds – 4th in approach, 10th in ballstriking, 11th in SG: T2G, 37th in SG: OTT, 7th in Par 5 scoring, 3rd in good drives, 16th in fairways gained, 10th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 7th in proximity 150-175 yds, 49th in opportunities gained, 28th in DK pts, 

Chez Reavie: 6700: +25000 – 9th in approach, 23rd in SG: T2G, 25th in ballstriking, 20th in good drives, 6th in opportunities gained, 4th in fairways gained, 3rd in proximity 175-200 yds, 4th in proximity 150-175 yds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • Slight advantage on Draftkings Showdown slates on players starting on 1 instead of 10, since they have a higher chance at getting the three birdies in a row streak. But this isn’t too much of an advantage with how difficult this course is.

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