Charles Schwab Challenge – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

Colonial Country Club – Fort Worth, TX

After last week’s incredible PGA Championship that saw Phil Mickelson become the oldest player to ever win a major, the PGA Tour goes to Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7209 yds, 84 bunkers, 4 water hazards, Bermuda fairways and rough, tight tree lined fairways with bunkers in play on pretty much every tee shot, rough isn’t too high but wirey so it’s tough to hit out of, harder than average fairways to hit (~56%), most golfers will go less than driver on a lot of holes (average driving distance 276 yds vs. tour average 284), plotters course where accuracy and shot placement matters more than distance,  a lot of doglegs with 7 of the 11 favoring a left to right ball flight, average GIR % (~65%), tiny average speed bentgrass greens with a bit of undulation, lot of bunkers around the green especially in front of them, weather plays a big factor here with the winning score between -21 and -9 the last 11 years

Tournament Notes

  • Last year this was the first event coming off the COVID layoff
  • Fans and grandstands are back this year
  • Formerly called the Fort Worth Invitational and the Dean & DeLuca Invitational and several other names before those
  • Experience/course history matter here, the winners of this event since 2001 have averaged 7 appearances here prior to their win
  • Only 8 golfers in 70 years have gotten their maiden victory here
  • Since Sergio won in 2001 at age 22, only Jordan Spieth in 2016 and Daniel Berger last year were the only golfers under age 30 to win here 
  • Besides when Justin Rose won two years ago (on his first time here) and Daniel Berger last year (T53 the year previous), every winner since 2014 has finished T15 or better the year previous here
  • SG: Approach is more than twice as impactful than OTT and ATG for Top 10/Top 5 finishes, and 3x more impactful on the winner
  • Any skill set could win here and a lot of plotters have won here before but the superstars that normally don’t play here could just bomb and gauge the course and tear it up

Key Stats

SG: Approach, Ballstriking, Fairways Gained, SG: ARG

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yds

Corollary Courses

  • Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
  • Copperhead Course (Valspar Championship)
  • Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship)
  • Wai’alae Country Club (Sony Open)
  • Pebble Beach (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)

Field

121 golfer invitational field, not as good as last year since this was the first event back but better quality field than most years here

Defending Champion: Daniel Berger (-15 in a playoff)

Runner Up Last Year: Collin Morikawa (-15)

One and Done: Abraham Ancer

Alternate: Charley Hoffman

One and Done Considerations: JT, Morikawa, Conners, Ancer

Players

Collin Morikawa: 10500: +1400 – Lost in a playoff to Berger here last year, 1st in approach, 2nd in SG: T2G, 2nd in ballstriking, 8th in fairways gained, 18th in SG: OTT, 19th in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds, 4th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 36th in SG: ARG, 44th in Par 5 scoring, 16th in DK pts

Abraham Ancer: 9700: +1600 – T14 here last year and made the cut the two previous years, 19th in approach, 15th in SG: T2G, 12th in ballstriking, 14th in SG: OTT, 5th in fairways gained, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 31st in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds, 34th in proximity 350-400 yds, 21st in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 45th in Par 5 scoring, 46th in sand saves, 26th in putting, 35th in short game, 23rd in DK pts

Corey Conners: 9400: +1800 – T19,T31,T8 here the last three years, 5th in approach, 4th in SG: T2G, 4th in SG: OTT, 1st in ballstriking, 4th in fairways gained, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 23rd in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds, 16th in Par 5 scoring, 3rd in proximity 100-125 yds, 3rd in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 45th in putting, 3rd in DK pts

Joaquin Niemann: 9300: +2500 – T32,T31,T8 here the last three years, 6th in SG: T2G, 7th in ballstriking, 5th in SG: OTT, 18th in approach, 18th in Par 4 scoring, 7th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds, 11th in Par 5 scoring, 37th in sand saves, 29th in proximity 100-125 yds, 18th in putting, 2nd in short game, 6th in DK pts

Charley Hoffman: 8700: +3500 – Missed cut last year but before that had 4 finishes of T13 or better (and one T18) and has made the cut every year here since 2012, 6th in approach, 7th in SG: T2G, 5th in ballstriking, 12th in SG: OTT, 14th in Par 4 scoring, 22nd in Par 5 scoring, 1st in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 24th in putting, 36th in short game, 5th in DK pts

Emiliano Grillo: 7900: +4000 – MC,T19,3,T24 the last four years here, 9th in approach, 6th in ballstriking, 14th in SG: T2G, 10th in SG: OTT, 17th in fairways gained, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 28th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds, 13th in proximity 100-125 yds, 14th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 17th in DK pts

Chris Kirk: 7600: +5000 – Won here in 2015, 6 finishes of T16 or better (including the win and a T5) here since 2011, 20th in approach, 23rd in SG: OTT, 20th in ballstriking, 15th in SG: ARG, 32nd in fairways gained, 11th in Par 4 scoring, 30th in Par 5 scoring, 48th in sand saves

Matthew NeSmith: 7300: +15000 – T49 in his debut here last year, 4th in approach, 9th in ballstriking, 12th in fairways gained, 6th in Par 5 scoring, 41st in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 43rd in SG: OTT, 26th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds

Denny McCarthy: 6300: +12500 – Made 7 of his last 8 cuts, made the cut here last year, 1st in putting on bentgrass, T25 in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, T30 in SG: ARG

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • On DK Showdown slates, you’re better off stacking guys that start on the back nine for the wrap around of Holes 17,18,1,2 for 3+ birdie streak

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