US Open – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course) – San Diego, CA

It’s major championship week for the US Open. The toughest test in golf goes to Torrey Pines this week. I break down the tournament and give my gambling/DFS picks for the week.

Course Breakdown

7700 yds. Par 71 (Par 72 when hosting the Farmers Insurance Open), one of the longest and most difficult courses on tour, bombers course, 6 of the Par 4s are longer than 450 yds, Par 5s are lengthy averaging 590yds so most golfers won’t be able to reach all the greens in 2, OTT golfers will see narrow tree lined fairways with a lot of bunkers, only about 50% of fairways are hit on average here every year at the Farmers Insurance Open so that will be even lower with the US Open setup, Kikuya grass on the fairways and rough, rough is very thick and gnarly and around 5 inches (typically around 2 inches for the Farmers), lot of holes have a slight dogleg right which favors rightys that hit a cut off the tee, average to small sized POA greens that are multitiered with undulation and are very quick (and should be even faster this week), lot of which are guarded in the front by large bunkers and thick, tall rough, will play much harder than the setup for the Farmers Insurance Open every year

Tournament Notes

  • This course hosts the Farmers Insurance Open every year but the setup is much different with the USGA making it much more difficult for the hardest major of the year
  • Tiger Woods won the 2008 US Open here on a torn ACL in a playoff with a winning score of -1 over Rocco Mediate. They were the only two players to shoot under par for the tournament and Lee Westwood who came in 3rd was the only one to shoot par

Key Stats

SG: Approach, SG: OTT, Driving Distance

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards

Field

156 golfers

Cut is Top 60 and ties 

Defending Champion (Winged Foot): Bryson DeChambeau

Runner Up Last Year (Winged Foot): Matthew Wolff

One and Done: Tony Finau

Alternate: Will Zalatoris

One and Done Considerations: Bryson, Brooks, Rahm, Finau

Players

Bryson DeChambeau: 10400: +1400 – 1st in SG: OTT, 1st in driving distance, 11th in SG: T2G, 10th in ballstriking, 49th in approach, 1st in proximity 200+ yds, 18th in proximity 175-200 yds, 49th in SG: ARG, 11th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 40th in short game, 48th in putting, 70th in proximity 100-125 yds, 6th in DK pts

Brooks Koepka: 10100: +1800 – 2,1,1 in his last 3 US Opens, 33rd in SG: OTT, 18th in driving distance, 14th in SG: T2G, 14th in ballstriking, 10th in approach, 20th in proximity 175-200 yds, 45th in proximity 200+ yds, 36th in proximity 100-125 yds, 7th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 38th in SG: ARG, 33rd in short game, 46th in putting, 7th in DK pts

Viktor Hovland: 9200: +2200 – T2 at the Farmers this year, T13,T12 at the US Open, 6th in SG: OTT, 39th in driving distance, 34th in fairways gained, 7th in approach, 6th in SG: T2G, 4th in ballstriking, 4th in proximity 175-200 yds, 4th in proximity 200+ yds, 73rd in proximity 100-125 yds, 39th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 88th in SG: ARG, 63rd in short game, 53rd in putting, 1st in DK pts

Tony Finau: 8900: +2000 – Has not had a finish worse than T13 at the Farmers Insurance Open in the last 5 years, T8,MC,5 at the US Open the last 3 years, I don’t expect him to win cause he never wins anywhere but should be successful here, 22nd in SG: OTT, 27th in driving distance, 4th in SG: T2G, 18th in ballstriking, 20th in approach, 3rd in SG: ARG, 11th in proximity 175-200 yds, 48th in short game, 5th in DK pts

Corey Conners: 8200: +7000 – 9th in SG: OTT, 4th in fairways gained, 4th in approach,  9th in SG: T2G, 2nd in ballstriking, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 11th in proximity 200+ yds, 50th in proximity 175-200 yds, 8th in proximity 100-125 yds, 57th in putting, 21st in DK pts

Abraham Ancer: 7900: +4000 – 13th in SG: OTT, 3rd in fairways gained, 14th in approach, 10th in SG: T2G, 7th in ballstriking, 6th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 6th in proximity 175-200 yds, 55th in proximity 100-125 yds, 57th in SG: ARG, 28th in short game, 28th in putting, 20th in DK pts

Jason Kokrak: 7600: +5000 – 20th in SG: OTT, 13th in driving distance, 67th in fairways gained, 26th in approach, 24th in SG: T2G, 21st in ballstriking, 19th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 12th in proximity 200+ yds, 26th in proximity 175-200 yds, 51st in proximity 100-125 yds, 24th in short game, 10th in putting, 12th in DK pts

Max Homa: 7300: +9000 – 49th in SG: OTT, 37th in driving distance, 81st in fairways gained, 13th in approach, 31st in SG: T2G, 24th in ballstriking, 9th in proximity 200+ yds, 15th in proximity 175-200 yds, 3rd in proximity 100-125 yds, 21st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 97th in SG: ARG, 34th in short game, 16th in putting, 15th in DK pts

Charley Hoffman: 7200: +7000 – 36th in SG: OTT, 25th in driving distance, 84th in fairways gained, 2nd in approach, 8th in SG: T2G, 3rd in ballstriking, 2nd in proximity 175-200 yds, 15th in proximity 200+ yds, 39th in proximity 100-125 yds, 52nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 75th in short game, 61st in putting, 2nd in DK pts

Taylor Pendrith: 6500: +20000 – One of the best players on the Korn Ferry Tour, 24th in SG: OTT, 21st in driving distance, 20th in SG: ARG, 20th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds

Note: All stats are from last 36 rounds. Sweet spot between long term (50 rounds) and current form (24 rounds)

Bets

.5u Bryson DeChambeau – WIN (+1400)

.5u Brooks Koepka – WIN (+1800)


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