With a 2-0 series lead for Tampa, the Stanley Cup Finals shifts to Montreal tonight for Game 3 and the defending champs are only two wins away from raising Lord Stanley. A series never really starts until you lose at home, but this might be the end of the Montreal Canadiens run pretty soon.
I have 7 units to win 13.25 units on Tampa and I’m going to hedge that a bit now with a unit on Montreal to win the cup at +800. That guarantees that I make at least a unit of profit on my futures and eliminates my risk on Tampa. I still expect the Lightning to win the Cup, but it would be stupid to not cover the crazy scenario of the Habs making this a series after the incredible and unlikely run they went on to get this far.
Game 3: Canadiens vs. Lightning (8:00)
In Game 2 of the series on Wednesday night, I thought that the Habs outplayed Tampa especially in the first two periods of the game but the Bolts were still able to get a 3-1 win, with a fantastic 42 save performance from Andrei Vasilevskiy. For Montreal to outplay the Lightning that much for the first two periods and STILL lose, I don’t see them having a chance to win this series. This is a must win game for the Habs tonight and with a win tonight they can still make this a series. If they lose, its pretty much curtains for the Canadiens, cause there’s no chance they’re going to rattle off four straight wins against how good of a team Tampa has. I think the Bolts get the big win in a grind of a game tonight so I’ll take Tampa for 2 units tonight at the must cheaper price than I expected at -134. I would have only taken this for one unit, but I’m doubling it up to cover the expected loss of my unit hedge on Montreal to win the Cup if Tampa wins tonight. If Montreal wins tonight, I still expect Tampa to win the Cup but I’ll have the best value possible on my hedge and be fine with losing tonight’s bet at the cheap enough price with some much value on the Bolts.
2u Lightning ML (-134)
4u Stanley Cup Champions: Tampa Bay Lightning (+200)
3u Stanley Cup Champions: Tampa Bay Lightning (+175)
1u Stanley Cup Champions: Montreal Canadiens (+800)
Record: 363-283-3 (-50.34 units)
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