Wyndham Championship – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

Sedgefield Country Club (Ross Course) – Greensboro, NC

Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7127 yds, Donald Ross design, one of the easiest courses on tour, birdiefest, Bermuda grass throughout, both Par 5s are easily reachable (over 70 eagles on the 2 Par 5s in 2019), 8 of the 12 Par 4s are in 400-450 yds range, 2 Par 4s play over 500 yds, average sized tree lined fairways, just a few fairway bunkers, light rough, over 70% of drives hit the fairway (way above tour average), lot of less than driver off the tee, placement off the tee is more important than length similar to a Pete Dye design, GIR % is way higher than tour average (~72% vs. 65%), GIR from the fairway is over 80% and GIR from the rough is around 50% so that’s a huge gap, small to average sized quick undulated and sloped multi-tiered greens (back to front), there are a lot of shallow bunkers and water guarding the greens on a few holes, edges of the greens are crowned with large collection areas, one of the toughest putting courses on tour which is a staple of Donald Ross designs, high three putt % (~67% vs. 55% tour average)

Tournament Notes

  • Wyndham Championship has been played here since 2008, but the greens were changed to Bermuda from bentgrass in 2012
  • Final event of the regular PGA Tour season before the FedEx Cup playoffs (Top 125 make the Northern Trust at Liberty National next week), so it makes this event matter a bit more but that doesn’t seem to shake out to any actual results for the players on the bubble. It really doesn’t matter.
  • Any skill set can win here
  • 7 of the last 9 winners have ranked T15 for the week in Driving Accuracy

Key Stats

Approach, Fairways Gained (Driving Accuracy), Par 4s 400-450 yds

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yds (27.7%)

Corollary Courses

  • Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
  • Waialae Country Club (Sony Open)

Crossover success at both courses and similar setups with short Par 70s and Bermuda grass

Field

150 golfers, pretty weak field

Defending Champion: Jim Herman (-21)

Runner Up Last Year: Billy Horschel (-20)

One and Done: Hideki Matsuyama

Alternate: Chez Reavie

Players

Hideki Matsuyama: 11000: +1200 – MC,T11,T3 his last 3 times here, T2 last week after losing in a playoff at WGC St. Jude, 1st in approach, 45th in fairways gained, 35th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 10th in Par 4 scoring, 9th in proximity 150-175 yds, 3rd in ballstriking, 1st in SG: T2G, 51st in SG: OTT, 2nd in opportunities gained, 4th in birdie+ gained, 79th in short game, 27th in SG: ARG, awful at putting and 3 putt avoidance so he’ll have to have a good week on the greens and roll some in to win, 2nd in DK pts

Russell Henley: 9400: +3300 – T9,T31,MC,T46 his last 4 times here, 3rd in approach, 29th in fairways gained, 47th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 22nd in Par 4 scoring, 7th in proximity 150-175 yds, 11th in ballstriking, 17th in SG: T2G, 78th in SG: OTT, 18th in opportunities gained, 66th in birdie+ gained, 68th in short game, 84th in SG: ARG, 68th in putting, 94th in 3 putt avoidance, 58th in DK pts

Kevin Streelman: 8300: +4000 – T19 at The Open, 11th in approach, 15th in fairways gained, 7th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 12th in Par 4 scoring, 8th in proximity 150-175 yds, 9th in ballstriking, 12th in SG: T2G, 19th in SG: OTT, 6th in opportunities gained, 25th in birdie+ gained, 62nd in short game, 60th in SG: ARG, 75th in putting, 61st in 3 putt avoidance, 17th in DK pts

Chez Reavie: 7400: +5500 – MC,T48,T37,MC his last 4 times here, T11,T59,T18 his last 3 events, 23rd in approach, 2nd in fairways gained, 40th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 25th in Par 4 scoring, 4th in proximity 150-175 yds, 19th in ballstriking, 26th in SG: T2G, 33rd in SG: OTT, 12th in opportunities gained, 62nd in birdie+ gained, awful at short game (ranked 117th), 88th in SG: ARG, terrible at putting (ranked 118th), 22nd in 3 putt avoidance, 47th in DK pts

Ryan Armour: 7000: +7500 – 2nd in SG here over last 5 years (T25,T22,T8,T4 the last 4 years), T6,T5 his last 2 events, 56th in approach, 4th in fairways gained, 1st in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 8th in Par 4 scoring, 51st in proximity 150-175 yds, 43rd in ballstriking, 46th in SG: T2G, 50th in SG: OTT, 24th in opportunities gained, 43rd in birdie+ gained, 39th in short game, 77th in SG: ARG, 30th in putting, 43rd in 3 putt avoidance, 30th in DK pts

Kyle Stanley: 7000: +9000 – MC,T13,MC,T14 his last 4 times here, 4th in approach, 7th in fairways gained, 21st in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 20th in Par 4 scoring, 12th in proximity 150-175 yds, 2nd in ballstriking, 2nd in SG: T2G, 8th in SG: OTT, 4th in opportunities gained, terrible in birdie+ gained (ranked 110th), awful in short game (ranked 125th), 63rd in SG: ARG, awful in putting (ranked 139th), awful in 3 putt avoidance (ranked 127th), 46th in DK pts

Brian Stuard: 6900: +10000 – T51,T31,MC,MC,T46 the last 5 years here, T6,T15,T8 his last 3 times here, 28th in approach, 3rd in fairways gained, 5th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 9th in Par 4 scoring, 19th in proximity 150-175 yds, 61st in ballstriking, 38th in SG: T2G, terrible in SG: OTT (ranked 118th), 23rd in opportunities gained, 74th in birdie+ gained, 14th in short game, 18th in SG: ARG, 25th in putting, 17th in 3 putt avoidance, 57th in DK pts

Model

Approach (15%)

Fairways gained (15%)

Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds (15%)

Par 4 scoring (10%)

Proximity 150-175 yds (10%)

Ballstriking (5%)

SG: T2G (5%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Opportunities gained (5%)

Birdie+ gained (5%)

Short game (5%)

SG: ARG (0%)

Putting (0%)

3 putt avoidance (5%)

DK pts (0%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings Lineups

Lineup 1: Hideki, Henley, Streelman, Armour, Stanley, Stuard

Lineup 2: Hideki, Henley, Streelman, Reavie, Armour, Stuard

Lineup 3: Hideki, Henley, Streelman, Reavie, Stanley, Stuard

Contests: 

$5 GPP (50k to 1st) (71343 entries)

$5 GPP (10k to 1st) (9512 entries)

$5 Single Entry Double Ups (344 entries, 172 entries, 172 entries)


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