Shriners Children’s Open – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

TPC Summerlin – Las Vegas, NV

Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7255 yds, 7 Par 4s between 400-450 yds, course plays a lot shorter due to the elevation so the ball goes 8-10% farther on average here (average drives 296 yds vs. tour average 282), 2/3 Par 5s are reachable in 2 by the whole field and the other one is reachable by some of the field, pretty wide tree lined fairways that tighten up a bit around 300 yds, missing fairways isn’t very penal with trees spread out and the Bermuda rough is pretty short (but can give tricky lies), rocky native areas if you miss wildly, large bentgrass greens with average speeds and a lot of slope and undulation with putts breaking more than they look like they will, 50 greenside bunkers and 3 inch rough surrounding the greens, top 10 hardest course on tour in scrambling and sand save %, GIR % here is a lot higher than tour average (73% vs. 66%), birdiefest

Tournament Notes

  • This event has ended in a playoff 3 of the previous 4 years
  • 12 of the last 20 winners here got their first PGA Tour victory at this event (6 of the last 13)
  • 7 of the last 8 winners were T20 in driving accuracy for the week (Kevin Na, who putted lights out was the exception to that)

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Fairways Gained

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yds (24.7%), 125-150 and 150-175 (both 20.4%)

Field

156 golfers, decent field especially for a swing season event

Defending Champion: Martin Laird (-23 in playoff)

Runner Up Last Year: Austin Cook, Matthew Wolff (-23)

Players

Viktor Hovland: 10600: +1800 – 2nd in Approach, 2nd in SG: T2G, 4th in SG: OTT, 31st in fairways gained, 29th in Par 4 scoring: 400-450 yds, 5th in proximity 200+ yds, 3rd in proximity 125-150 yds, 20th in proximity 150-175 yds, 1st in opportunities gained, 1st in birdie+ gained, 61st in putting, 1st in DK pts

Abraham Ancer: 10400: +2000 – 4,MC,T4,MC here the last 4 years, 9th in Approach, 9th in SG: T2G, 8th in SG: OTT, 7th in fairways gained, 1st in Par 4 scoring: 400-450 yds, 70th in proximity 200+ yds, 70th in proximity 125-150 yds, 3rd in proximity 150-175 yds, 21st in opportunities gained, 13th in birdie+ gained, 8th in putting, 12th in DK pts

Paul Casey: 8900: +3300 – 1st in Approach, 1st in SG: T2G, 29th in SG: OTT, 67th in fairways gained, 3rd in Par 4 scoring: 400-450 yds, 1st in proximity 200+ yds, 8th in proximity 125-150 yds, 6th in proximity 150-175 yds, 15th in opportunities gained, 10th in birdie+ gained, 5 in DK pts

Corey Conners: 8800: +2500 – 5th in Approach, 8th in SG: T2G, 1st in SG: OTT, 6th in fairways gained, 5th in Par 4 scoring: 400-450 yds, 43rd in proximity 200+ yds, 24th in proximity 125-150 yds, 72nd in proximity 150-175 yds, 4th in opportunities gained, 35th in birdie+ gained, 27th in DK pts

Emiliano Grillo: 7400: +6600 – 10th in Approach, 27th in SG: T2G, 13th in SG: OTT, 26th in fairways gained, 30th in Par 4 scoring: 400-450 yds, 7th in proximity 200+ yds, 25th in proximity 125-150 yds, 2nd in proximity 150-175 yds, 4th in opportunities gained, 8th in birdie+ gained, 13th in DK pts

Adam Svensson: 6200: +20000 – 19th in Approach, 12th in SG: T2G, 33rd in SG: OTT, 41st in fairways gained, 35th in Par 4 scoring: 400-450 yds, 20th in proximity 200+ yds, 36th in proximity 125-150 yds, 25th in proximity 150-175 yds, 18 in opportunities gained

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: T2G (5%)

SG: OTT (15%)

Fairways gained (10%)

Par 4 scoring: 400-450 yds (10%)

Proximity 200+ yds (10%)

Proximity 125-150 yds (5%)

Proximity 150-175 yds (5%)

Opportunities gained (5%)

Birdie+ gained (10%)

Putting (5%)

DK pts (0%)

Stats based on past 50 rounds


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