Last night I won my only bet as the Oilers beat the Kraken 5-2. Good choices by me to lay off the other two games as well. Tonight there’s a pretty big NHL slate. Let’s make it three winning days in a row!
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights (7:00)
Neither of these teams have had good starts for their seasons for completely different reasons. The Vegas Golden Knights are 4-4 and have so many injury issues so early in the season with pretty much half of the skill players out of the lineup. Can’t expect to win when you’re missing half of your team. The Leafs have been very underwhelming offensively. They are second in the league at shots they’ve generated but have a terrible shooting percentage of only 6.8% and they’re just not getting pucks in the back of the net, and they’re sixth worst in the NHL in average goals per game at only 2.33. That’s pathetic when you look at their top forwards and that Marner, JT and Matthews are making a fuck ton of money. Toronto should win this game but fuck betting on them until this team figures out how to score efficiently.
Canadiens vs. Red Wings (7:00)
What a shitty game this is. Montreal’s one of the worst teams in hockey with a 2-8 record, an atrocious offense that is only averaging 1.9 goals per game and their defense and goaltending is still allowing 3.4 goals per game. Not a good team by any means. The Red Wings are 4-3-2 and have been able to score, averaging 3.22 goals per game but bad defensively, allowing 3.44 per game. Detroit should win this game on the road here but at +125, I don’t really see any value in betting this one on a young team that still isn’t very good either. I’ll skip this game entirely. I’d slightly lean the under.
Flyers vs. Coyotes (7:00)
The Yotes are the worst team in hockey and with the Blackhawks winning last night, they’re the only remaining team in the NHL without a win yet this season. They’re the worst team in the NHL on both ends of the ice, allowing a league worst average 4.22 goals per game (the next worst is Chicago, allowing 3.8) and they’re dead last in scoring, only averaging 1.44 goals per game. The Flyers offense has been fantastic this year, they’re sixth in the NHL in average goals per game (3.57). Philly should be able to score in bunches again tonight and on the other end of the ice, I’d expect Carter Hart has a big game for a Flyers win as they look to bounce back from a 4-0 shutout loss to Calgary on Saturday night. I’ll take the Flyers in regulation for a unit and a half (to cut down on some juice on the ML), a unit and a half on the Flyers TT over 3.5 and half a unit on Arizona TT under 2 in regulation.
Wild vs. Senators (8:00)
Last night the Senators gave the Blackhawks their first win of the season as Chicago got a 5-1 win over the Sens. Ottawa’s road trip continues tonight as they go to Minnesota to take on the 5-3 Wild, who are coming into this game off back to back 4-1 losses on Friday and Wednesday to Colorado and Seattle. Statistically these two teams are pretty close, with Minnesota averaging 2.75 goals per game and Ottawa averaging 2.5 goals. The Wild are slightly worse than the Sens defensively, allowing an average 3.25 goals per game vs. Ottawa’s 3.13. Even though the stats show them as pretty close, Minnesota’s the way better team here. The ML is expensive but with Ottawa coming into this game on the back end of playing back to back nights after getting embarrassed last night to one of the two worst teams in hockey, I like the Wild. I’ll take them for half a unit here. I considered the regulation line here but I’m more comfortable just laying the juice.
Jets vs. Stars (8:00)
Dallas under’s have been BIG money makers so far this year, a perfect 8-0 on their games this season (and quite profitable over the last several years). Their offense sucks and they’re only better than Arizona in goals per game at a putrid 1.75 goals per game average and they’re dead last in the NHL in shooting percentage, they’re not getting many shots and they’re scoring on just 5.7% of their shots on goal. This game concerns me on betting the under though. Winnipeg is terrible defensively and they don’t have Connor Hellebuyck in goal tonight (out for the birth of his child) so the Jets have Mike Comrie in goal. Comrie allowed 2 goals in his only start this season, a 3-2 win over the LA Kings last Thursday but historically he’s been pretty bad. Winnipeg’s got a solid offense, averaging 3.13 goals per game. I’d lean the Jets here but not enough to bet them. Like I said, the under scares me on this one with the over at 5-3 on the season for Winnipeg’s games. I’ll still take the under here for half a unit but I’ll buy it up from 5.5 to 6 and take the alternate line.
Flames vs. Predators (9:00)
Calgary’s been on fire (get it? lol) to start the year at 6-1-1. They’ve been very good on both ends of the ice with their offense fifth in the league in average goals per game (3.63) and generating a ton of shots (second best in the NHL, averaging 35.4 per game). They have a good defense with good goaltending from Markstrom and they’ve have a second best in the NHL goals allowed per game at only 1.88. The 4-4 Nashville Predators come into this game 4-4 on a three game winning streak, averaging and allowing 2.75 goals per game. Doesn’t get more average than that. The Flames are on a six game winning streak and I’d expect that continues tonight at home against the Preds. I’ll take Calgary ML for a unit and the puck line for half a unit (5-1 in Calgary’s six wins this season).
Canucks vs. Rangers (10:00)
The Rangers are locking down games defensively and Igor Shesterkin’s been fantastic in goal with them averaging only 2.11 goals allowed per game. Offensively, they haven’t done much, averaging just 2.44 goals per game. Their defense keeps games quiet and they win these low scoring games. The 3-5-1 Vancouver Canucks haven’t been great, averaging just 2.33 goals per game while allowing 2.67. I like the Rangers to win this game, as they’ve been winning the games in matchups against lousier teams where they dictate the play, and I’ll take them for half a unit here. In addition, I like the under which is 7-2 in Rangers games and 6-3 for the Canucks so I’ll take that for half a unit. And for fun, I’ll parlay the Rangers and the under for another half unit.
Ducks vs. Devils (10:00)
The Ducks suck. They’re 3-4-3 and coming into this game off a 4-2 win against Montreal on Sunday night that ended their six game losing streak. They’re bad defensively, tied for fourth last in the NHL in goals allowed per game at 3.4. They have been pretty decent offensively, scoring 3.1 goals per game. The Devils haven’t been too great either and have injury issues. They’re scoring an average of 3 goals per game while allowing an average of 2.86. I’d lean the Devils win this one all the way across the country in Anaheim but I don’t see any value to betting it so I’ll skip this game. I’d lean the over.
Sharks vs. Sabres (10:30)
Both of these teams have already exceeded my exceptions for them early in the season. I thought both of these teams would be at the basement of the NHL but they both have had decent starts with the Sabres at 5-2-1 and the Sharks at 5-3-0. This should be a pretty close game. The Sharks are averaging 2.75 goals per game and the Sabres are averaging 3 per game. Buffalo has also been better on the defensive end of the ice though, allowing an average of 2.13 goals per game vs. SJ’s 2.38 average. I’d lean the Sharks win this game at home but not enough to bet it. I’d also lean the over but the trends point more towards the under so I’ll stay off that as well.
1.5u Flyers in regulation (-143)
1.5u Flyers TT over 3.5 (-104)
.5u Arizona TT under 2 in regulation (-104)
.5u Wild ML (-205)
.5u Dallas/Winnipeg under 6 (-143)
1u Calgary ML (-160)
.5u Calgary -1.5 (+163)
.5u Rangers ML (-135)
.5u Rangers/Canucks under 5.5 (-110)
.5u Parlay: Rangers ML & Rangers/Canucks under 5.5 (+232)
Record (Regular Season): 52-49-1 (-1.98 units)
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