Last night was my worst night of the season on the NHL, with the reverse sweep losing all six bets for -7.76 units. Just nothing went my way.
I still think the process of picking games is right. I know that I know how to pick hockey games and I know the NHL well enough to make good picks and see how games are going to go, but there’s variability to this sport where a puck could bounce in the wrong direction and a game doesn’t go your way. A few years back when I got into the daily grind of gambling on the NHL as a huge fan of the league my whole life, I learned that it takes a few months into the season (around until All Star Break) for teams to really find there stride, and there’s less variability of “hockey luck” that comes into play while you also figure out the identities of teams. I’ll likely scale back on a good amount of my plays until later in the season.
Tonight, three pretty compelling matchups for me to break down.
Rangers vs. Panthers (7:00)
Florida’s coming into this game as the best team in hockey. They come into this game after beating Carolina 5-2 on Saturday night giving them their first loss to the season. The Panthers are 10-0-1 (that loss, 3-2 in overtime against the Bruins on 10/30 after losing their head coach), they’re second in the NHL (only behind Edmonton) in scoring, averaging 4.18 goals per game and they’re also the third best in the NHL defensively, allowing just 2.09 per game. The Rangers after having a great start to the season just dropped their last three straight, losing to Vancouver before getting shit pumped by Edmonton and Calgary, two games where they gave up six goals in each of them. Despite those two games, the Rangers are still a good team defensively, allowing an average of 2.83 goals per game. They’re not doing anything offensively, averaging fifth worst in the league 2.42 goals per game. Florida should win this game but likely without Aleksander Barkov (still not official), I don’t love betting on this game. It feels like a trap for some reason to me in MSG with those two terrible losses for the Rags and the line being a pick at -110 on both sides seems ridiculously off for some reason. I’d also lean the under here. Skipping this game entirely but will be sure to watch it.
Capitals vs. Sabres (7:00)
The Sabres are coming down to reality. This team sucks and they’ve lost their last four straight games, none of those against particularly good teams. The Caps also lost four of their last five but are a much better team than Buffalo. The last three losses for Washington were against the Flyers, Panthers and Lightning. Buffalo isn’t even close on the talent level as those three teams. The Caps are the way better team here. They’re sixth in the NHL in goals per game scoring 3.36 and they’re eighth best in goals allowed at 2.64 per game. The Caps offense should be able to outscore this Sabres team that’s been getting worse and worse every game and win this game pretty easily. At -265, I’m not betting the ML on this one but I’ll take the Caps in regulation for a unit.
Maple Leafs vs. Kings (7:30)
After a horrendous 2-4-1 start to the season, underperforming on their talent, the Leafs have turned it around and Toronto’s on a five game heater. They’re now capitalizes on their chances and are averaging both 2.67 goals for per game and goals allowed per game. The LA Kings are on their own four game win streak and they’re averaging 2.45 goals per game while allowing 2.55. The Leafs should win this game at home, but with the way games I’ve been picking not going the way they “should” and the Leafs ML being so expensive at -286, I’ll skip this one.
1u Caps in regulation (-159)
Record (Regular Season): 70-76-2 (-15.02 units)
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