Crushed NHL again yesterday going 7-4 for +2.74 units and I’m on a 17-6 run for +6.42 units over the last two slates. Nine game slate to keep fucking rolling!
Panthers vs. Kraken (6:00)
Both of these teams lost yesterday, in quite different ways that kind of sums up their seasons. Florida ended their four game win streak with a 4-3 loss in Washington last night. They’re a very good team at 14-3-3, with the second most goals per game in hockey, averaging 3.8 per game and allowing the fifth fewest, an average of 2.5 per game. Seattle got shut out 3-0 in Tampa last night to go to 6-13-1 on the year. This team sucks. They’re averaging just 2.7 goals per game and allowing a third worst in the NHL 3.6 goals per game. I love Florida to get a hopefully easy bounce back win at home tonight and since the ML is expensive at -215, I’ll take them in regulation for a unit.
Red Wings vs. Sabres (7:00)
The Sabres got a nice 4-1 win at home against Montreal last night to end their four game losing streak and move to 8-10-2 on the season. Still not great and this team definitely has their issues. They’re allowing a fifth most in the NHL 3.35 goals per game and they’ve been pretty average offensively, averaging 2.85 goals per game. Detroit was one of the few teams not on the ice last night, coming into this game off a 4-2 win against St. Louis on Wednesday night, which ended their own four game losing streak. They’re not much better than Buffalo defensively, allowing a sixth most 3.29 goals per game but they’re not scoring as much as the Sabres, an average of 2.76 goals per game. In the first game these teams played, Detroit won 4-3 in overtime. I’d lean Detroit wins this one again at home with the Sabres on the second half of a back to back but at -200, there’s no value to betting that. I’ll take Detroit in regulation for half a unit though with Aaron Dell (0-4, 4.56 GAA, .862 save percentage). I like the over as I expect both teams to give up a decent amount of opportunities so I will take over 5.5 in this game for half a unit.
UPDATE: Tokarski confirmed in goal, getting back to back starts. I don’t love Detroit in regulation as much anymore, but I’m not buying out of it and just letting it roll. Fuck it.
Penguins vs. Canadiens (7:00)
Now that they are healthy, the Penguins have been rolling and after their fifth win in a row, a 1-0 shutout on Long Island, they are now 10-6-4 on the season. They’re just scoring 2.9 goals per game on average but their back end has much improved. They’re now allowing a fifth fewest 2.5 goals per game and Tristan Jarry has three shutouts in his last five games…including a 6-0 game against these Montreal Canadiens last Thursday. The Habs have been atrocious, one of the worst teams in the NHL this season. Last night they lost 4-1 to the Buffalo Sabres and they’re now a pathetic 5-15-2. They’re scoring a third fewest 2.18 goals per game and allowing a second most 3.64 goals per game. Pittsburgh’s been hot and I think that continues with another win tonight. I’ll take the Penguins in regulation for a unit, even with Casey DeSmith confirmed in goal.
Golden Knights vs. Oilers (7:00)
Both of these teams had last night off and come into the game with three wins in their last four. Draisaitl and McDavid’s Oilers are 14-5 with the third highest scoring offense, averaging 3.79 goals per game mainly on the strength of their league leading power play that’s scoring on 39% of their chances. Their defense isn’t great though, allowing 3 goals per game. Vegas keeps getting healthier and Max Pacioretty rejoins the lineup which makes them a scarier team to face. Especially at home in the Fortress, one of the loudest buildings in the NHL. They’re averaging 3.15 goals per game and allowing 3.05. I like Vegas to win this game but not enough to bet on it. I like the over as well, but not enough to bet on, especially at 6.5.
Kings vs. Senators (7:00)
The Ottawa Senators who showed good signs of being feisty last year look like shit this year. They’re 4-13-1 and on a four game losing streak, coming into this game off last night’s 4-0 shutout loss to Anaheim. They’re allowing a league most 3.83 goals per game and only scoring a seventh fewest 2.44 goals per game. The LA Kings are 8-8-3 coming into this game on a five game losing streak. Before that they were on a seven game winning streak and before that a six game losing streak, so when they get on a streak they seem to stick to it. Their offense is even worse than Ottawa’s averaging a sixth fewest 2.42 goals per game but they’re much better on the back end, allowing a seventh fewest 2.58 goals per game. I think this is a good spot at home for the Kings to end that losing streak with a win. I’ll take LA for half a unit in regulation. I thought about take the ML even with the high juice to give me that extra possible five minutes and a shootout, but at -195, there isn’t enough value to lay on that for a team on a five game losing streak…so regulation only it is.
Blues vs. Blue Jackets (8:00)
After being one of the worst backup tendies in the show last season, Ville Husso has been good in his starts this season for the Blues at 2-1 with a 1.35 GAA and .952 save percentage. I don’t really expect that to last though and expect regression each time they play. The Blues come into this game with three losses in their last four and a 10-7-3 record. Statistically they’ve been decent, averaging a tenth best 3.2 goals per game and allowing a twelfth fewest 2.75 per game. Columbus has been surprisingly good, going into this game on a three game winning streak and a 12-6 record. They’re averaging a sixth most 3.44 goals per game and allowing 2.94 goals per game. I’d lean Columbus in this one since I think Husso goes back to his old self, but not enough to bet against the Blues at home. I do like the over though and will take that for half a unit.
Coyotes vs. Stars (8:00)
The Yotes haven’t been as awful lately with three wins in their last five games, but they’re still one of the worst teams in the NHL at 4-14-2. They’re still at the bottom of the stat sheets, scoring a league fewest 1.85 goals per game and allowing a third worst 3.6 goals per game. Dallas is the toughest to figure out team in the league this year. At some points they look atrocious and then in some games they look like they can steal wins from anyone. They come into this game in the dirty desert at 9-7-2 with five wins in their last six games. They’re scoring 2.72 goals per game and allowing 2.89 per game. I don’t think the Stars are a good team but they should be able to beat Arizona here in a low scoring game. I thought about parlaying the under with the Stars ML but I think I like the Stars in regulation better for a half unit, so I’ll go with that instead.
Avalanche vs. Predators (9:00)
Last night the Avs six game win streak came to an end in a disappoint 3-1 loss in Dallas. They’re 10-6-1 on the year and 6-2-1 at home. They lead the NHL in average goals per game at 3.88 but their defense and goaltending has been shaky, allowing a ninth most 3.18 goals per game. That gets even worse tonight with Jonas Johansson starting. Nashville’s been decent at 11-8-1. They’re mainly winning on low scoring games on Juuse Saros good play in goal. But with them also coming off a game last night, they have David Rittich in goal tonight. With both backups starting, I like the over here and will take it for half a unit. I’d slightly lean Colorado at home but not enough to bet it with Johansson in goal.
Flames vs. Jets (10:00)
These two Canadien teams enter this game on opposite streaks, with 12-3-5 Calgary winning their last four straight and 9-7-4 Winnipeg on a five game losing streak, not scoring more than two goals in any of those five games. Calgary has a league leading defense, allowing the fewest goals in the NHL (1.9 per game). The Jets haven’t been bad defensively either, mainly on the great play of Connor Hellebuyck and they’ve allowed a tenth fewest 2.7 goals per game. There’s a huge offensive difference though as Calgary is scoring the seventh most goals in the NHL (average of 3.4 goals per game) while the Jets are scoring the ninth fewest (average of 2.6 per game). I like Calgary to win this one at home with how putrid the Jets offense has been their last few games and I don’t expect that to change much on the second half of a back to back where they got trounced 7-1 in Minnesota last night against Jacob Markstrom (1.73 GAA, .940 save percentage). I’ll take the Flames for half a unit here.
1u Florida in regulation (-134)
.5u Red Wings in regulation (-121)
.5u Red Wings/Sabres over 5.5 (-120)
1u Penguins in regulation (-139)
.5u LA in regulation (-120)
.5u Blues/Blue Jackets over 6 (-110)
.5u Dallas in regulation (-115)
.5u Avs/Preds over 6 (-110)
.5u Calgary ML (-190)
Record (Regular Season): 119-114-4 (-13.98 units)
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