Last night on a quiet night in the NHL, 2-1 losing a little less than a unit (0.96). Not bad considering the Winnipeg Jets couldn’t even score a goal against the Arizona Coyotes in a 1-0 shutout loss at home as -335 favorites. Big eight game slate tonight.
Bruins vs. Red Wings (7:00)
Neither of these teams have been bad this year, but they haven’t been spectacular by any means either. The Red Wings come into this game with back to back wins against St. Louis and Buffalo and have a 10-9-3 record on the season. They’re averaging 2.77 goals per game and allowing a sixth most in the NHL 3.23 goals per game. The Bruins are 11-7 on the year, 7-3 at home and averaging 3.06 goals per game while allowing 2.83 per game. The B’s will be without Brad Marchand, one of their best players who’s out on a three game suspension for slew-footing Oliver Ekman-Larsson on Sunday and they’ll be without their head coach Bruce Cassidy, who’s out on covid protocol. I think those are significant impacts for the B’s. You take Marchand out, that puts Hallsy on the Perfection line with Pasta and Bergeron. Not a huge drop off, but that decimates that second line and that’s where you see the impact to their lineup. The first time these teams played this season (11/4), the Bruins trounced Detroit 5-1 for an easy win. I’d guess the Red Wings keep this one closer but still expect the Bruins to win it at home. At -220, I don’t see any value in betting the B’s though in what I think is probably a close game, especially with Marchy out. If anything I see some value to Detroit +1.5, but I think the best call on this game is probably to sit it out with no bets at all. TLDR; I think the B’s win by a goal. No value in betting this game in any way.
Panthers vs. Capitals (7:00)
These have been two of the best teams in the NHL and they have played great hockey on both ends of the ice. Florida is 14-4-3, averaging a third most in the NHL 3.67 goals per game and allowing a sixth fewest 2.57 goals per game. The 14-3-5 Washington Capitals are fifth in scoring, averaging 3.55 goals per game and allowing the fourth fewest, 2.36 per game. These teams match up very well, with both games they’ve played this year coming down to one goal. The first game they played on 11/4, the Panthers won 5-4 in overtime and then the Caps answered back with a 4-3 win last Friday. I’d lean Florida but not enough to bet on either. I’d expect both teams to score and I’ll take the over for half a unit. This should be the best game on the slate.
Devils vs. Sharks (7:00)
Both these teams have been okay this year but not impressing anyone. The Devils are 9-6-4 on the season, 6-3-2 at home and come into this game with two wins in their last five games. They’re averaging 2.95 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.9 goals per game. San Jose is 11-9-1, averaging only 2.62 goals per game but allowing just 2.71 per game. I’d slightly lean the Devils here but not enough to have any interest in betting it. I do like the under though as I don’t see either team generating much offense and will take that for half a unit.
Blues vs. Lightning (8:00)
Tampa’s 12-5-3 and come into this game with six wins in their last eight games. They’ve been playing solid hockey lately. They’re scoring an eleventh most 3.1 goals per game and allowing a twelfth best 2.75 per game. They’re starting Brian Elliot (2-1, 3.3 GAA, .878 save percentage) in goal though tonight so their back end is a significant step back without Andrei Vasilevskiy getting the nod. The St. Louis Blues have been a tough team for me to gauge because even though they’re a decent 11-7-3 on the season, they only have three wins in their last ten games. Not playing good on either end of the ice. On the season, they’re averaging a seventh best 3.33 goals per game and allowing a 13th fewest 2.76 goals per game. If Vaz was starting, I’d like Tampa here but with Elliot going against a decent offense (even though they haven’t performed much lately) makes me skip this game on that side. I will take the over for half a unit.
Predators vs. Blue Jackets (8:00)
Columbus has been surprisingly pretty decent this season. They’re 12-7 and have five wins in their last seven games (none of those have been in particularly tough matchups though). They have been very good offensively, sixth in the NHL in goals per game for an average of 3.42. Defensively though they’ve had their struggles, allowing a tenth most 3.11 per game. They just find ways to win by outscoring their problems on the back end. The Preds are 11-9-1 and come into this game with four losses in their last six games. They are averaging an eleventh fewest 2.71 goals per game and while they started the season well on limiting the goals allowed, that’s dropped off for them as they’re now allowing the 13th most goals, an average of 3 per game. I love the over in this matchup and will take it for a unit. I’d lean the Blue Jackets to outscore the Preds, but with this game in Smashville, I’ll lay off that.
Wild vs. Coyotes (8:00)
Last night the Yotes shockingly pulled off a 1-0 shutout win on the road in Winnipeg for their fifth win of the season. Don’t get me wrong though…this team still is the worst in hockey at 5-15-2. They’re averaging a dead last in the NHL 1.82 goals per game and they’re allowing a fifth most 3.41 goals per game. Minnesota’s having a very good season again at 14-6-1 and they’re 7-2 at home and come into this game with three straight wins. They’re averaging a fourth best 3.62 goals per game but haven’t been great defensively, allowing 3 goals per game. No fucking shot the Coyotes win two games in a row on the road in back to back nights. I love Minnesota here but no chance I’m laying a -370 moneyline so I have to attack this game a little differently. I’ll take the Wild in regulation (at still an expensive -220) for a unit and the Wild TT over 3.5 for a unit as well.
Stars vs. Hurricanes (8:30)
Dallas had a pretty bad start to this season but have since rallied with six wins in their last seven games. They’re averaging 2.74 goals per game and allowing 2.84 per game. Carolina has been one of the best teams in hockey. They’re 15-4-1 but have lost three of their last four games, allowing the third fewest 2.15 goals per game and scoring the eighth most, 3.3 per game. The issue they have though is that their defense is decimated with Brett Pesce, Tony DeAngelo and Ethan Bear all out on covid protocol (that vaccine really proving it doesn’t work but this isn’t where I’m gonna go in depth with that bullshit). I’d slightly lean Dallas here because of those guys being out and how well the Stars have played lately, but not enough to bet on this game. I’d slightly lean the under as well.
Kings vs. Ducks (10:30)
Despite both of these California teams playing great hockey at points this season, they have both had plenty of struggles lately. Coming into this game with four losses in their last five games after their eight game win streak came to an end, the Ducks have dropped down to a more average record of 11-8-3. On the season they’re still averaging a tenth best 3.18 goals per game and allowing an eleventh fewest 2.73 goals per game. The Kings, ended their five game losing streak with a 4-2 win over Ottawa on Saturday. Before that losing streak, they also went on a seven game heater. Their offense has been pathetic, averaging an eighth fewest in the NHL 2.5 goals per game but they’ve been great on the back end, allowing a fifth fewest 2.55 goals per game. I’d slightly lean the Ducks in this game but not enough to bet on it. I’d also slightly lean the under but I think the pace of the game dictates the winner and the total. If its a high scoring affair, Ducks win it. If its a slow defensive grind, then I think the Kings get the W. I’ll lay off betting this game completely.
.5u Panthers/Capitals over 6 (-110)
.5u Devils/Sharks under 6 (-125)
.5u Lightning/Blues over 5.5 (-120)
1u Nashville/Columbus over 5.5 (-110)
1u Wild in regulation (-220)
1u Wild TT over 3.5 (-150)
Record (Regular Season): 128-121-4 (-16.36 units)
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