Last night I went, 6-4-1 losing 1.18 units on my heaviest card of the season. Not awful considering I had three huge swings with Ottawa beating Carolina outright (I had the Canes -210 in regulation), the Capitals (-210) losing to the Blackhawks in a shootout (dumb luck) and Dallas trying to feed Jason Robertson to get a hat trick on the empty net instead of just shooting the puck at the open goal (which lost the over and pushed the TT instead of winning on it). The rest of the slate went great though and I read all the games pretty well. I’m back on track expecting to make money every night. Tonight we have a five game NHL slate.
Rangers vs. Sharks (7:00)
The Rangers have had one of the hottest seasons in the NHL, draining games with great defense and stellar goaltending from Shesterkin. They come into this game with four straight wins and eight wins in their last nine games. They’re allowing a seventh fewest in the NHL 2.62 goals per game and they’re averaging 3 goals per game. The Sharks are 13-9-1 and coming into this game with wins in five of their last six games. Other than their 2-1 OT win over Carolina in that stretch though, the other four wins were against pretty weak competition. SJ is actually allowing even less goals than the Rangers, fifth fewest in the NHL, an average of 2.61 goals per game. They’re only scoring a tenth fewest 2.7 goals per game though. I think this ends up being a low scoring game that the Rangers end up winning. I’ll take the under on this one for a unit and the Rangers in regulation for half a unit.
Jets vs. Devils (8:00)
Both of these teams haven’t been awful on the season but they both blow lately. The Devils are 9-8-4 with just one win in their last five games and two wins in their last nine. The Jets have been just as bad, with only one win in their last seven. Neither are scoring goals, with the Jets averaging just an eighth fewest 2.55 goals per game and Jersey isn’t much better, averaging just 2.86 goals per game. Winnipeg’s goaltending from Hellebuyck is fantastic and as a team they’re allowing a fifth fewest 2.59 goals per game. The Devils on the other hand are allowing 3.1 per game. I think NJ is the slightly better team here but I have no interest in betting this game. I’d lean the under but there’s not enough of an edge for me to bet it.
Coyotes vs. Golden Knights (9:30)
Both of these teams come into this game with three losses in their last four games but there’s a clear difference in the talent of these two teams. The 5-16-2 Arizona Coyotes are brutal, scoring a league fewest 1.83 goals per game and allowing a fourth most 3.48 goals per game. This team blows. Vegas has struggled with injuries this year and they come into this game 12-10, averaging a tenth most 3.18 goals per game but they’re also allowing an eighth 3.18 goals per game. They’re also Laurent Brossoit in goal tonight instead of Panda, so that’s a step back for them even though the stats don’t necessarily show that this year. Vegas should easily win this game even with Brossoit starting but I’m not laying -225 on them on the road with how they’ve played lately. I’ll take the Golden Knights for a half unit in regulation and the TT over 3.5 for half a unit. I LOVE the TT over 3 but at -215, there’s just not enough value to buy it down so I’ll roll the dice for a bit less on the 3.5.
Ducks vs. Flames (10:00)
Both these teams are having great seasons and have been good on both ends of the ice. Calgary’s 14-4-5, coming into tonight with six wins in their last seven games after their 3-2 win in LA last night. The Ducks are 13-8-3 and have three wins in their last four games. The Flames have the eighth most goals in hockey, averaging 3.22 per game and allowing the fewest in the league, an impressive 1.96 goals per game. The Ducks are even better offensively, averaging a sixth most 3.33 goals per game but allowing an average of 2.88 goals per game. The first time this season these teams played (10/18), the Ducks won it 3-2 in a shootout. I think the Flames are the better team here but with the Flames on the second half of a back to back on the road, I’d slightly lean the Ducks. I’ll skip betting this game. Should be the most fun one on the slate to watch.
Kraken vs. Oilers (10:00)
The Oilers have one of the most electric offenses in hockey, with league leaders, Leon Draisaitl (41 points, 20 goals) and Connor McDavid (40 points, 25 assists). They’re 16-5 with five wins in their last six games. They’re scoring the third most goals in hockey, an average of 3.81 goals per game and outscore their defensive problems of allowing 2.91 goals per game. After their brutal franchise start, the Kraken are 4-1-1 in their last six games to now put them at 8-13-2 on the season. They’re still not great statistically, averaging 2.96 goals per game and allowing a fourth most 3.48 goals per game. The first time these teams played on November 1st, the Oilers won 5-2. I think the Oilers win a high scoring affair again but the Kraken should keep it a bit closer. I’ll take the Oilers ML for half a unit, the over for half a unit and the Oilers TT over 3 for half a unit.
1u Rangers/Sharks under 5.5 (-110)
.5u Rangers in regulation (-121)
.5u Vegas in regulation (-137)
.5u Vegas TT over 3.5 (-118)
.5u Oilers ML (-140)
.5u Oilers/Kraken over 6 (-136)
.5u Oilers TT over 3 (-157)
Record (Regular Season): 142-128-5 (-13.06 units)
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