I went 1-2 for -3.06 units on Sunday, mainly on my two unit bet on the Avs/Panthers game coming one goal short from hitting the over on a game that that was scoreless for the first 39:37 of the game and came back to life with a 3-2 final. Monday’s only game between Flames and Blackhawks was postponed for covid issues in Calgary for a nice night off of hockey and we’re back tonight for a huge twelve game (after two postponed games) NHL slate!
Bruins vs. Golden Knights (7:00)
The Bruins haven’t really impressed me at all this season. They’re 14-8-2 with three wins in their last five games. The B’s are averaging 2.83 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.54 goals per game (seventh fewest in the NHL). Brad Marchand is out on the covid list which as we know is a big blow to the depth of their lineup and their ability to score. Vegas has won four of their last five and come into this road game with a 16-11 record. They’re allowing an eleventh most 3.15 goals per game but outscoring that issue with a fourth highest average of 3.48 goals per game. I like the Knights to win this one on the road without Marchand in the lineup for Boston and I’ll take the Vegas ML for a unit.
Lightning vs. Kings (7:00)
The defending cup champ Lightning are 17-6-4 and come into this game off a shocking (lost on it two different ways) 4-0 loss in Ottawa on Saturday afternoon that ended their five game win streak. They’re averaging a ninth best 3.22 goals per game and allowing an eleventh fewest 2.67 goals per game. LA is 12-10-4, coming into this game with three wins in their last four games. They’re only scoring a seventh fewest 2.58 goals per game on average, but making up for it with their defense and goaltending, allowing a fourth fewest 2.46 goals per game. I like Tampa to win a low scoring game here and will take the Bolts ML and the under here for a half unit each.
Panthers vs. Senators (7:00)
Florida’s one of the best teams in hockey at 18-5-4 and they’re an even more impressive 14-1 at home. They’re averaging 3.7 goals per game, second best in the NHL while allowing 2.7 goals per game. This team could win the Stanley Cup. Ottawa is one of the worst teams in the NHL with an 8-16-1 record but have been SHOCKINGLY winning four of their last five games against Tampa, NJ, Colorado and Carolina. I’m thinking those are fluke wins though and that needs to end. They are awful on paper, allowing the most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.72 goals per game and scoring an eighth fewest average of 2.64 goals per game. This is a perfect spot for the Panthers to get a big win to make things right in the NHL. The ML here is way too pricey for me on it’s own so I’ll parlay them with the Jets ML and Penguins ML for 2.5 units and take them in regulation for a unit.
Flyers vs. Devils (7:00)
Despite the Flyers winning their last two games, both of these teams fucking suck. Philly is 10-12-4 and prior to their wins against Arizona and Vegas, they were on a ten game losing streak. The Devils only have two wins in their last ten games…both against the Flyers. They’re 10-11-5 on the season. They’re both similar in the way they play, not scoring much and giving up a good amount of goals. NJ is slightly better statistically, averaging 2.81 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.15 goals per game while the Flyers are averaging a sixth fewest in the NHL, 2.5 goals per game and allowing an eighth most 3.31 goals per game. Since both times these teams played this season, the Devils won I’d slightly lean them but I want nothing to do with this shitty game so I’ll skip it entirely.
Penguins vs. Canadiens (7:00)
This is the most lopsided game on the slate tonight. The Penguins come into this game at home on a four game winning streak and a 14-8-5 record. They’re averaging 2.93 goals per game and with Tristan Jarry’s awesome play in goal this season (1.92 GAA, .934 save percentage), they’re allowing a third fewest in the NHL average of 2.44 goals per game. The Habs are probably the worst team in the league this season at 6-20-3 and come into this game on a six game losing streak. This team is scoring the second fewest goals in hockey, averaging just 2.14 goals per game, only trailing the Arizona Coyotes while also allowing a fifth most 3.52 goals per game. These teams have already played twice this year with the road teams winning. The first was a 6-0 shutout wins for the Pens on 11/18 and then the Habs won a shocker 6-3 in Pittsburgh on 11/27. I think the Penguins get a pretty easy win here. The ML is ridiculous for at -320 but I have that in my 2.5 unit parlay with the Panthers and Jets. Along with that, I’ll take the Penguins in regulation and the Habs TT under 2 in regulation for a half unit each.
Red Wings vs. Islanders (7:30)
The Red Wings come into this game at home tonight on a three game losing streak dropping their record to 13-12-3 on the season, but they have been much better at home than on the road with a 9-3-2 record in Detroit. They’re allowing a sixth most in the NHL 3.43 goals per game and averaging 2.75 goals per game. The Islanders are the biggest disappointment of the season with a 7-11-5 record. They’ve won two of their last three games (against NJ and Ottawa), but they’ve been awful as those are their only two wins in their last 14. They’re allowing an average of 2.96 goals per game but have done nothing offensively, averaging a third fewest in the NHL 2.17 goals per game. These two teams played a pretty good game on December 4th, where the Wings won 4-3 in overtime. I’d slightly lean Detroit at home here but not enough to bet on them.
Jets vs. Sabres (8:00)
The Sabres are on a seven game losing streak now dropping to 8-15-4 on the season. This team straight up sucks. They’re allowing the fourth most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.56 goals per game and averaging just a ninth fewest 2.67 goals per game. Winnipeg is 13-9-5 with three wins in their last five games. They’re averaging 2.89 goals per game while allowing a ninth fewest 2.63 goals per game. Winnipeg should be able to easily take care of the shitty Sabres tonight. The ML here is too expensive for me on its own at -265, but I’ll take the Jets in regulation for a unit along with my 2.5 unit parlay with the Panthers ML and Penguins ML.
Stars vs. Blues (8:30)
This should be a fun game. The Stars come into this game with a 13-10-2 record and come into this one on a three game losing streak, dropping games to SJ, LA and Vegas all on the road. Prior to that run, they were on a seven game winning streak with only one loss in ten games. They’ve been very good at home this season with a 9-2-1 in Dallas. They’re averaging 2.72 goals per game and allowing 2.76 goals per game. St. Louis is 15-8-5 with three wins in their last in their last six games. They’re averaging a seventh best 3.36 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.75 goals per game. Their third string goalie Charlie Lindgren gets his fourth start of the season tonight with Binnington and Husso still out. He’s been impressive so far with a 3-0 record, 1.42 GAA and .947 save percentage. I’d lean Dallas and the under here but not enough to bet on either of them so I’ll skip this game from a betting standpoint but could be one of the more fun ones to watch tonight.
Avalanche vs. Rangers (9:00)
The Avalanche have been on fire lately, winning their last four straight games (scoring seven goals in three of them) to improve to a 16-7-2 record, 9-2-1 at home. They have the best offense by a significant margin, averaging 4.32 goals per game (Florida’s behind them with 3.7). They win in high scoring games, while allowing a seventh most 3.36 goals per game. The Rangers have been fantastic this season too, with an 18-6-3 record. The Rags are averaging 2.89 goals per game and win on defense, allowing a sixth fewest 2.52 goals per game. With Igor Shesterkin still out on IR, they’re stuck with Georgiev in goal…not good, especially against this high powered Avs offense. When these teams played last week in MSG, the Avs won 7-3. I’d expect a likely closer game here but still like the Avs to win a high scoring affair again. I’ll take the Avs in regulation for half a unit, Avs TT over 3.5 for a unit and the alternate over 6 (I hate 6.5 lines) for a unit.
Oilers vs. Maple Leafs (9:00)
After their great 16-5 start to the season with the two top players in the NHL, the Oilers have crumbled as of late, losing their last five straight games to drop down to Earth at 16-10. They haven’t scored more than two goals in their last four games. On the season, they’re scoring the sixth most goals in the league, an average of 3.38 goals per game while allowing 3.08 per game. The Leafs are one of the top teams in the league, coming into this game at 19-8-2, but have lost three of their last five games. They’re averaging a tenth best 3.21 goals per game and allowing an eighth fewest 2.55 goals per game. I think defense and goaltending wins this one and I’ll take the Leafs for half a unit.
Canucks vs. Blue Jackets (10:00)
The Canucks are 12-15-2 on the season but have won their last four straight games since the hiring of new head coach Bruce Boudreau. They’re averaging a fifth fewest 2.38 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.9 goals per game. Columbus is 14-11-1 with just two wins in their last eight games. They’re averaging an eighth best 3.23 goals per game but allowing a ninth most 3.27 goals per game. IF both teams were healthy, I’d lean Vancouver at home to even up the season series after losing 4-2 in Columbus on November 26th. The HUGE thing this game though is that the Canucks have covid issues and are awaiting some late last minute tests to see what (COMPLETELY HEALTHY) players are allowed to play and we won’t know who’s in the lineup or not until right before game time. There was even talk that this game could get cancelled today but hasn’t yet. With that huge question mark, I’m not touching this game.
Sharks vs. Kraken (10:30)
This isn’t a great game but could end up being a pretty close one. San Jose is 15-12-1 with two wins in their last five games. They’re averaging a tenth fewest 2.68 goals per game but allowing just 2.71 goals per game. Seattle’s 9-15-3 with just one win in their last five. The Kraken are averaging 2.85 goals per game but have bad defensively and in goal, allowing a third most average of 3.59 goals per game. I’d slightly lean the Sharks here but not enough to bet this game.
1u Vegas ML (-120)
.5u Tampa ML (-185)
.5u Tampa/LA under 5.5 (-135)
2.5u parlay: Panthers ML/Penguins ML/Jets ML (+147)
1u Panthers in regulation (-167)
.5u Penguins in regulation (-180)
.5u Montreal TT under 2 in regulation (-155)
1u Jets in regulation (-162)
.5u Avs in regulation (-124)
1u Avs TT over 3.5 (-124)
1u Avs/Rangers over 6 (-134)
.5u Leafs ML (-125)
Record (Regular Season): 182-157-7 (-15.74 units)