My incredible six day winning streak came to an end last night with a 1.4 unit loss on the over of the Rangers/Oilers game by a goal since Edmonton’s offense didn’t show up. Amazing run over the last week winning around 20 units. Let’s bounce back with a winning day on this eight game NHL slate.
Bruins vs. Devils (7:00)
The Devils who went into the break playing terribly came out of it with three straight wins including OT winners against the Capitals and Oilers after blowing leads in regulation of both of those games. They’re now 13-15-5 on the season, averaging 2.88 goals per game, while allowing a seventh most in the league 3.39 per game. They’re got hit by the injury bug with two key guys, Dougie Hamilton and Nico Hischier out tonight. The Bruins are 16-10-2 with back to back wins to start the new year against the Sabres and Red Wings coming out of the break. The B’s haven’t been spectacular offensively, averaging just 2.2 goals per game, really only getting production from the Perfection Line and Taylor Hall. Their defense and goaltending has been pretty good though, allowing the sixth fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.57 goals per game. The first time these teams played this season, the Bruins won 5-2, pretty easily on the road. Especially with Hamilton and Hischier out, I like the Bruins to win this one at home pretty easily too. I don’t ever lay -315 lines so I’ll take the B’s in regulation for a unit.
Panthers vs. Flames (7:00)
This should be a pretty fun game to watch with both of these teams having great seasons so far. Florida’s such a fun team to watch and they’re 21-7-4 with an impressive 17-3 record at home this year and they came out of the Christmas break with three straight wins where they scored at will. The Panthers have an electric offense, averaging the second most goals in hockey, 3.78 goals per game and they’re allowing an average of 2.91 per game. Calgary’s been really good too at 17-7-6 and they won back to back big games against Seattle and Chicago coming out of the break. Both of those, especially the Chicago game that won me five units where they scored two goals in the last two minutes of the game to win all my bets. The Flames are averaging 3.2 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL and allowing the second fewest goals in the league, an average of 2.23 goals per game. I think Florida win at home in a close game here and I like the over as well. I’ll take both for a half unit each.
Blue Jackets vs. Lightning (7:00)
Tampa, despite being one of the top teams in the NHL with a 21-8-5 record come into this game with three straight losses after getting shit kicked 9-3 by Florida and then taking back to back losses to the Rangers 4-3 and 4-0. The Bolts are averaging a 13th best 3.15 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.88 goals per game. The Columbus Blue Jackets are 15-14-1 but have had their struggles with just three wins in their last twelve games. Their offense is pretty solid, averaging a tenth best 3.2 goals per game but their defense and goaltending is really struggling, allowing the sixth most goals in hockey, an average of 3.47 goals per game. There was some talk earlier today that the Jackets might have had to go with their fourth string goaltender today but it looks like their #1 Joonas Korpisalo will likely start tonight for the first time since November 27th. That’s not great either though as he’s had his struggles against the Lightning with a 2-4-1 record, .885 save percentage and 3.65 GAA against them. Columbus will also be without Zach Werenski, their best defenseman on an already shitty defense, who just entered covid protocol today. I think this is a great spot for Tampa to bounce back from their last few games and I’m going to hit this game in a few different ways. I’ll take a unit parlay at even money on Tampa and Colorado MLs, Tampa in regulation for a unit and a half, Tampa TT over 3.5 for a unit and the over on this game for half a unit.
Red Wings vs. Sharks (7:30)
These two teams are pretty similar and both teams aren’t great on either end of the ice. Detroit’s 15-15-3 with back to back losses at home coming out of the break to the Bruins (5-1) and the Caps (3-1). They’re averaging just 2.7 goals per game (tenth fewest in the NHL) and allowing the seventh most, an average of 3.39 goals per game. The Sharks are slightly better with a 17-15-1 and they’re 2-1 coming out of the break with wins against Arizona and Philly and a loss to Pittsburgh. The Sharks are slightly better than the Red Wings on both ends of the ice, but not by much, averaging 2.82 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.06 goals per game. I’d slightly lean the Sharks here since I think overall they’re a better team but Detroit’s played pretty good at home this season with an 11-5-2 record. Sometimes the best bet on a game is no bet at all and I think that’s where this one falls. Skipping it entirely.
Blackhawks vs. Avalanche (8:30)
Huge mismatch game here. Colorado’s one of the top teams in the league with an 18-8-2 record, winning six of their last seven games and coming out of the break with a 4-2 win against the Ducks on Sunday. They have the significantly best offense in hockey, averaging 4.21 goals per game, outscoring their defensive issues of allowing an eleventh most 3.32 goals per game. Chicago came out of the break getting the shit kicked out of them twice in a row, losing 6-1 to Nashville and 5-1 to Calgary (I won big on both of those) without their top two goalies. In general, the Blackhawks have been pretty bad this season. They’re 11-17-4, averaging a third fewest 2.22 goals per game and allowing the tenth most, an average of 3.38 goals per game. They do get Marc-Andre Fleury back in goal tonight though which is a big improvement of Soderblom and Delia. The first time these teams played this season back in October, the Avs won 4-2. I’d expect sort of a similar result tonight. I already have a unit parlay on the Colorado ML with the Tampa ML. In addition to that, I’ll take the alternate over 5.5 for a unit. I looked at the Avs TT and them in regulation here, but I’d rather just keep it simple on this one.
Coyotes vs. Jets (9:00)
On Sunday night the Jets came out of the break and played a very entertaining game in Vegas, where they came back from down 2-0 to get a 4-2 lead, which they then blew as the Knights forced OT and then Winnipeg got the win 5-4 on a goal from Kyle Connor. They’ve had their ups and downs this season. They’re averaging 2.94 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.77 goals per game. The Coyotes on the other hand are the biggest train wreck in the NHL with a 6-21-3 record. One of those six wins was a 1-0 shutout against the Jets on November 29th. They’re averaging the fewest goals in hockey, only 2.1 goals per game and allowing the most in the league, 3.8 per game. Obviously Winnipeg should win this game, but I don’t think its worth laying the -230. Instead I’ll take the Jets in regulation for a unit and the Jets TT over 3.5 for half a unit.
Golden Knights vs. Predators (10:00)
Nashville’s coming into this game with a 20-11-2 record and have been one of the hottest teams in hockey recently with a 8-1-1 record in their last ten games, most recently a 6-1 blowout win on New Years Day against Chicago. The Preds are averaging 3.03 goals per game. They’re allowing the ninth fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.67 per game on the back of their stellar play from one of the best goalies in the league, Juuses Saros who’s likely starting tonight between the pipes. The Golden Knights are 22-12-1 with a 2-0-1 record coming out of the break, most recently with an overtime loss at home to Winnipeg on Sunday where they blew a 2-0 lead to go down 4-2 before forcing OT and then losing. The Knights offense is one of the best in the NHL, averaging 3.54 goals per game, fourth most in the league. They’re allowing an average of 3.06 per game. Vegas is still missing three of their best players in Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty and Robin Lehner, all out with injury (along with Jack Eichel obviously). Laurent Brossoit hasn’t been bad this year in his backup role on the Knights and he’s listed as likely to start for the sixth time in the last seven games for Vegas. But, they may give Logan Thompson his first NHL start instead tonight, who lead them onto the ice for morning skate today. I like Nashville to pull off the win here and I’ll take a stab on them for half a unit tonight at the pick em price.
Ducks vs. Flyers (10:00)
This game’s interesting. The Ducks are 17-11-7 this season, 10-4-4 at home, which is impressive considering what I expected out of this team going into the season. They’re struggling with injuries recently and have lost their last four straight games including all three they’ve played coming out of the break. They’re averaging 3 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.71, the eleventh fewest in the NHL. The Flyers aren’t great. They’re 13-13-6 on the year coming into this game with back to back losses in California against SJ (3-2) and LA (6-3). They’re averaging an eighth fewest 2.66 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.22 goals per game. Not great. If they were healthy, I’d be all about the Ducks here, but with all the injuries and a bunch of their key players out, I’ll just skip this game.
1u Bruins in regulation (-177)
.5u Florida ML (-150)
.5u Florida/Calgary over 6 (-125)
1u parlay: Tampa ML/Colorado ML (+101)
1.5u Tampa in regulation (-143)
1u Tampa TT over 3.5 (-124)
.5u Tampa/Columbus over 6 (-120)
1u Colorado/Chicago over 5.5 (-139)
.5u Jets in regulation (-139)
.5u Jets TT over 3.5 (-114)
.5u Nashville ML (-110)
Record (Regular Season): 244-191-11 (-3.4 units)