One of the best nights of the season yesterday, going 10-1 and winning 7.44 units. Back in the positives on the NHL regular season!!! Profit from here on out!! The Jets came half a goal short on the TT, only scoring 3 goals on 48 shots against the Yotes to ruin my perfect night. Only two games tonight, let’s make some more money!
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers (7:00)
Edmonton comes into this game tonight with an 18-13-2 record and they’ve lost four straight games coming out of the Christmas break and they’ve lost twelve of their last 14 games. The Oilers will never, ever win the Stanley Cup structured the way that they are since they’re so one dimensional. If their two superstars, one of which is the best player in the world can’t score multiple goals in a game, they lose. Unfortunately for them, that best player in the world, Connor McDavid, got put on the covid list yesterday. McDavid has points on 48% of Edmonton’s goals, leading the NHL with 53 points and 34 assists. Draisaitl has points on 47% of the Oiler’s goals with 52 points and an NHL leading 25 goals. You can’t expect to win hockey games when your team’s entire production comes from only two players. This is the NHL, not the NBA (sick league). They’ll also be without Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Tyson Barrie, who’s also on the covid list. As a team, they’re averaging a ninth best 3.3 goals per game but that will significantly be decreased without McJesus in the lineup. They aren’t good at all on the back end either, allowing 3.24 goals per game. This won’t be a fun matchup for them either going up against the powerhouse Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs are 21-8-2. They came back from their several week break with an easy 6-0 win on New Years Day against Ottawa for their fourth win in their last five games. The Leafs have been very good on both ends of the ice. They’re averaging 3.35 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL. Also, turns out that Auston Matthew’s positive covid test yesterday was a false positive as he returned to the team and was in morning skate this morning, so he’ll be in the lineup tonight. They’ve also been one of the top teams in the NHL defensively, allowing a third fewest in the NHL, 2.42 goals per game. Jack Campbell, who is confirmed in goal tonight for the Leafs is playing the best in the NHL this season, with a league leading 1.86 GAA and .939 save percentage. I think the Leafs kick the Oilers asses tonight. Even if McDavid was in the lineup, the Oilers are broken. Watching them play since coming out of the break, they look flat and just bad. Without McDavid, they have next to nothing. The first time these teams played this season on December 14th, the Leafs won 5-1 in Edmonton. I don’t expect the Oilers and expect just as lopsided of a result tonight. The price on the Leafs ML has flown up today with the news of McDavid out and Matthews in, which makes it not worth laying the -286, but they should be able to pretty easily get it done in regulation so I will bet the Leafs in regulation for 3 units and the Oilers TT under 2.5 in regulation for a unit. I looked at the alternate puck line props as well but didn’t really see enough value in those, so I’m just rolling with this.
Penguins vs. Blues (7:30)
This should be a fun game between two really good teams that have been playing great hockey lately. Coming off of their 6-4 win in the Winter Classic against the Wild in the coldest NHL game ever played, the Blues are 19-9-5 with a 7-1-1 record in their last nine games. Their offense is averaging, 3.45 goals per game, fifth most in the NHL. They get Pavel Buchnevich and Brayden Schenn back in the lineup tonight too, which should give them an extra spark. Defensively they’ve been pretty good too, allowing an eleventh fewest average of 2.7 goals per game. The Penguins have been very good as well with an 18-8-5 record, coming into this game with eight straight wins, most recently coming out of the real with an electric 8-5 win against San Jose on Sunday. They have the eleventh best offense in the NHL and despite having a bunch of bad injury luck and covid issues, they’re averaging 3.16 goals per game. Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust are back in the lineup, so that should help an already good offense. The Pens have been very good on the back end, allowing the fifth fewest goals in hockey, just 2.48 goals per game. Instead of their top goalie Tristan Jarry, the Penguins are starting Casey DeSmith against Jordan Binnington. DeSmith hasn’t been great with a 3.32 GAA and .894 save percentage. I’d slightly lean the Blues here with DeSmith starting but the Penguins have been real hot lately and they’re at home tonight so I’ll skip betting a side on this game. I expect both teams to be able to score though and I’ll take the over in this game for a unit.
3u Leafs in regulation (-177)
1u Oilers TT under 2.5 in regulation (-152)
1u Penguins/Blues over 6 (-117)
Record (Regular Season): 254-192-11 (+4.04 units)