Another profitable night yesterday on the NHL, going 2-1 to win 2.6 units (loss was a +335 prop, no big deal). Today we have a huge eleven game slate on the first day of legal betting in NYS!!
I’m going to be evaluating the new betting opportunities I have now with the legal sportsbooks now available here including live bets, early cash outs and all the other fun shit that’s now available. I’ll likely just be looking at it to see how those lines move mid game but if I see anything I end up liking, I’ll tweet it out.
Stars vs. Penguins (2:00)
The Pittsburgh Penguins are the hottest team in the NHL, coming into this game with ten straight wins after their 6-2 win over Philly on Thursday night. They’re now 20-8-5 with a 10-3-3 record on the road. The Pens are averaging 3.3 goals per game, ninth most in the NHL. Jeff Carter returns to the lineup today, which should give an already hot offense a nice spark (Geno Malkin’s almost ready to make his return but isn’t playing today). Their defense and goaltending on the other end of the ice is even better, allowing a third fewest in the NHL average of 2.49 goals per game, lead by Tristan Jarry (confirmed in goal today) who has a 1.9 GAA and .933 save percentage. The Stars come into this game on a three game win streak of their own after their surprising 6-5 overtime win against Florida on Thursday night. They’re 16-12-2 but are significantly better on home ice, with a 12-3-1 record at home in Dallas. The Stars are decent on both sides of the ice, but nothing that makes them stand out compared to the rest of the league. They’re averaging 2.87 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.97 per game. These teams played once earlier this season, a 2-1 shootout win for the Stars in Pittsburgh on October 19th. I think the opposite happens today with a Penguins win to start off the day. As my first legal bet, I’ll take the Pens ML for 1.5 units. I split this into a 1u and .5u bet so if I want to partially cash that out and let the rest ride I have the option to do so.
Lightning vs. Bruins (7:00)
The last time these teams played on December 4th, we got a great game with the Lightning winning 3-2 in overtime in Boston. Tampa comes into this game with a 23-8-5 record off back to back wins against Calgary and Columbus. They’re 12-3-3 at home, scoring the ninth most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.28 goals per game and they’re allowing an average of 2.81 per game. After winning their first three games out of the Christmas break against Buffalo, Detroit and NJ, the 17-11-2 Bruins lost 3-2 to a shorthanded Minnesota Wild on Thursday night. They’re averaging 2.87 goals per game but they’ve been good defensively, allowing an average of 2.6 goals per game, the sixth fewest in the NHL. I think Tampa gets the win here and dictates play at home and I’ll take them for half a unit.
Flyers vs. Sharks (7:00)
This is an interesting game to me. The Flyers are 13-15-6 and coming into this game on four straight losses. They’re missing a ton of players tonight out on covid protocol. As a team they haven’t been great this season on either end of the ice. They’re averaging 2.59 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL and they’re allowing an average of 3.32 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL. The Sharks are a bit better on both ends. They’re 18-16-1, averaging 2.8 goals per game and allowing 3.11. When these teams played each other a week ago, SJ won 3-2 in overtime. With both teams being similar enough and both teams starting their backup goalies, I think the winner of this one ends up being a coin flip with no value on betting either side. I’d slightly lean the Sharks and the over but not enough to bet either. Skipping this game entirely.
Hurricanes vs. Panthers (7:00)
This game matches up two of the best teams in the NHL. Carolina’s 24-7-1 and come into this game on a five game win streak, winning nine of their last ten games. They’re averaging 3.5 goals per game, fifth most in the NHL and allowing the fewest goals in the league, only 2.16 per game. Florida is right up there with them at 22-7-5 but haven’t been as good on the road, where they have a 4-4-5 record. They come into this game off a 6-5 overtime loss in Dallas on Thursday night, but before that they were on a four game win streak coming out of the Christmas break. On the season, the Panthers are scoring the second most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.88 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.94 per game. In their November 6th game in Florida, the Panthers won 5-2. I’d expect the opposite today with Carolina likely winning at home. I like the over though and will take that along with the Florida TT over 3 for a half unit each.
Blue Jackets vs. Devils (7:00)
Both of these teams kind of suck and just played each other two days ago, where the Devils won 3-1. In their first meeting on Halloween, the Jackets won 4-3 in a shootout. Columbus is 15-16-1, losing their last three games and have just one win in their last six games (three wins in their last 14). They’ve definitely been better at home than on the road though, with a 10-5-1 record at home. Their offense isn’t bad, averaging 3.09 goals per game but their defense and goaltending is atrocious, allowing a fifth most 3.56 goals per game on average. The Devils are 14-16-5 but they’re playing decent lately with four wins in their last five games coming out of the Christmas break. I’d lean the Devils in this one but not enough to bet it. I will go back to the alternate over 6 here for a unit.
Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
This is an awesome matchup that a lot of people think could be a possible matchup in this year’s Stanley Cup Finals. The Avs are 20-8-2 with a 12-2-1 record at home and they come into this game on a three game win streak out of the Christmas break, with only one loss in their last nine games. Colorado leads the NHL in scoring by a significant margin, averaging an insane 4.3 goals per game. They haven’t been great defensively, allowing an eleventh highest average of 3.23 goals per game. The Leafs are on a four game win streak and come into this game with a 22-8-2 record. They’ve been solid offensively as well, scoring the seventh most goals in hockey, an average of 3.38 goals per game. With Jack Campbell leading the league with a 1.87 GAA and .939 save percentage, Toronto’s been very good on the back end, allowing just the second fewest goals in the league, 2.41 goals per game on average. When these teams played on December 1st in Toronto, the Leafs won an impressive 8-3 game. I’d slightly lean the Avalanche get their revenge here with a win on home ice in a much more competitive game, but not enough to bet on it. I will take the over though for half a unit, expecting both teams to be able to score with their elite offenses and get it over the 6.5.
Wild vs. Capitals (8:00)
The 20-10-2 Minnesota Wild, who are missing most of their best players ended their four game losing streak with a 3-2 win on Thursday night in Boston. The key part to that game though wasn’t the win, but losing their best player Karill Kaprivoz who left that game after a cheap shot. Along with Karill the Thrill out, the Wild are also with Joel Eriksson Ek, Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, Jordan Greenway, Nick Bjugstad and Cam Talbot. Not great. Without injuries, the Wild offense has been very good this season, averaging 3.63 goals per game, third most in the NHL. They’ve allowed an average of 3.06 per game, most of those with their healthy lineup and not missing their top two defenseman and starting goalie. The Caps come off a 5-1 loss in St. Louis last night for their third loss in their last five games. They’ve been very good on the season as well with a 20-7-8 record. They’re averaging an eighth most 3.37 goals per game and allowing a ninth fewest average of 2.66 goals per game. The goaltending for the Caps tonight might be a bit shaky with them starting their third string goalie Zach Fucale. This is just his NHL start, his first earlier this season where he became the first goalie in franchise history to make his debut with a shutout, a 2-0 win against Detroit where he made 21 saves. I like the Caps to bounce back here with a win against a severely depleted Wild team and I’ll take the Capitals ML for a unit.
Coyotes vs. Predators (8:00)
The Arizona Coyotes are the worst team in the NHL but come off a 6-4 win against Chicago on Thursday night. They’re 7-22-3, allowing the most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.78 per game and only scoring the second fewest in the league, an average of 2.19 goals per game. Nashville’s been one of the best teams in the league recently. They’re 22-11-2 on a three game win streak with a 10-1-1 record in their last ten games. The Preds are averaging 3.06 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.63 per game, eighth fewest in the NHL. Nashville should win this one pretty easy. I’ll parlay the ML of this game with Vegas ML for a unit along with taking Nashville in regulation for 1.5 units and Nashville TT over 3.5 for a unit.
Golden Knights vs. Blackhawks (10:00)
Marc Andre Fleury returns to Vegas tonight for him and the Blackhawks to take on the Golden Knights in the Fortress, his first game back since being traded in the offseason for almost nothing after his Vezina winning season. Vegas comes into this game off a nice 5-1 win over the Rangers on Thursday night and a 23-13-1 record. The Knights are averaging 3.54 goals per game, fourth most in the NHL and allowing an average of 3 goals per game. The Hawks blow. They’re 11-8-5, just losing 6-4 in Arizona on Thursday for their sixth straight loss. Chicago’s only averaging 2.29 goals per game, fourth fewest in the NHL and allowing the sixth most, an average of 3.47 per game. If it wasn’t Flower in goal, I’d be a lot heavier on Vegas, the TT over and probably the regulation line but with the factor of him in goal against his former team, I’ll just stick with my parlay on the Vegas ML with the Preds ML.
Ducks vs. Rangers (10:00)
The Ducks ended their four game losing streak on Tuesday with a 4-1 win against Philly on Tuesday on Troy Terry’s hat trick. They’re 18-11-7 this season with an 11-4-4 record at home. Anaheim’s averaging 3.03 goals per game, and they’ve been good defensively, allowing 2.67 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL. The Rangers have been one of the top teams in the NHL too. They’re coming off a 5-1 loss in Vegas on Thursday night but won their last three before that and come into tonight with a 22-9-4 record. They’re averaging 2.86 goals per game and winning on defense and Igor Shesterkin’s goaltending, allowing a fifth fewest 2.54 goals per game on average. Tonight they’ll be without Shesterkin, with Georgiev getting the start. Backup Anthony Stolarz is getting the start for the Ducks as well. With both backups in goal, both of which I don’t trust, I’ll take the over here for half a unit even though both teams trend under. I’d lean the Rangers but not enough to bet on them tonight.
Kings vs. Red Wings (10:30)
I think this is an interesting matchup. The LA Kings comes into this game with a 16-13-5 record and three wins in their last five games. They’ve been very good defensively, allowing a seventh fewest 2.62 per game but they haven’t been able to score, averaging only 2.62 goals per game, seventh fewest as well. Detroit’s 16-15-3, with two wins in their last five games. They’re not scoring much either, averaging 2.79 goals per game but have allowed an average of 3.35 per game, ninth most in the NHL. I’d lean the Kings at home and the under in this game, but not enough to bet on either of them so I’ll just skip it.
1.5u Penguins ML (-115)
LIVE: .4u Penguins TT over 2.5 (-143)
.5u Tampa ML (-186)
.5u Florida/Carolina over 6.5 (-120)
.5u Florida TT over 3 (-134)
1u Columbus/NJ over 6 (-152)
.5u Avalanche/Leafs over 6.5 (-120)
1u Capitals ML (-120)
1.5u Predators in regulation (-134)
1.02u parlay: Nashville ML/Vegas ML (-102)
1u Predators TT over 3.5 in regulation (+108)
.5u Ducks/Rangers over 5.5 (-110)
Record (Regular Season): 265-198-11 (+12.16 units)
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